本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：利率　出處：《東華大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年房改以來(lái),我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)得到極大繁榮,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)成為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)在我國(guó)總體經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要性日益凸顯。在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)迅猛發(fā)展的背后是不斷出臺(tái)的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控措施,從2003年的《關(guān)于促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的通知》到2013年的新國(guó)五條。盡管我國(guó)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策進(jìn)行了長(zhǎng)期的探索研究,但是事實(shí)證明調(diào)控政策并沒(méi)有滿足房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的調(diào)控要求,越調(diào)越漲的情況頻繁出現(xiàn)。與此同時(shí),雖然國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的調(diào)控有著一定的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和認(rèn)識(shí),但是由于國(guó)情問(wèn)題以及房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展階段水平的關(guān)系,使得國(guó)外的調(diào)控模式對(duì)我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)幫助有限。因此有必要對(duì)我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格調(diào)控機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究。本文從貨幣政策的角度討論我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的調(diào)控機(jī)制,主要從利率、存款準(zhǔn)備金率、銀行信貸三方面進(jìn)行討論。 文章首先回顧了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于貨幣政策與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的研究,并對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了整理。接著對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格決定理論及均衡理論進(jìn)行了闡述,并對(duì)貨幣政策的中介指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了分析。之后從利率、存款準(zhǔn)備金率、銀行信貸三個(gè)方面研究貨幣政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格調(diào)控的理論機(jī)制。緊接著,本文整理統(tǒng)計(jì)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用圖表對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及歷年貨幣政策調(diào)控效果進(jìn)行了直觀說(shuō)明,并指出我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展中現(xiàn)存的問(wèn)題。 文章在對(duì)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述之后,進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。在實(shí)證部分,文章選取最新數(shù)據(jù)運(yùn)用向量自回歸模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)及方差分解等方法對(duì)貨幣政策工具與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)：首先引入虛擬變量對(duì)單獨(dú)的政策工具與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格進(jìn)行分析,然后建立利率、存款準(zhǔn)備金率、銀行信貸與房?jī)r(jià)的VAR模型。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明,利率、存款準(zhǔn)備金率、銀行信貸都是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的格蘭杰原因,但三者對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響程度有差別,其中銀行信貸的影響程度最大,并且銀行信貸與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系；其次是存款準(zhǔn)備金率,存款準(zhǔn)備金率與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間是負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；出乎意料的是利率對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的調(diào)控效果不顯著。最后,從實(shí)證結(jié)果出發(fā),文章從利率、存款準(zhǔn)備金率、銀行信貸等方面提出了相關(guān)的政策建議,以期對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展起到一定的促進(jìn)作用。
[Abstract]:Since the housing reform in 1998, the real estate market of our country has been greatly prosperous, the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy, and the real estate economy has become more and more important in the overall economy of our country.Behind the rapid development of the real estate market is the continuous introduction of real estate regulation and control measures, from the 2003 notice on promoting the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market to the five new countries in 2013.Although our country has carried on the long-term exploration research to the real estate regulation and control policy, but the fact proves that the regulation and control policy does not meet the real estate market regulation and control request, the situation that the more adjustment and the higher the increase appears frequently.At the same time, although foreign developed countries have some experience and understanding of the regulation and control of the real estate market, due to the problems of the national conditions and the level of the real estate market development,Make the foreign regulation and control mode to our country's real estate market help is limited.Therefore, it is necessary to study the real estate price regulation mechanism in China.This paper discusses the adjustment and control mechanism of real estate price in China from the angle of monetary policy, mainly from three aspects: interest rate, reserve ratio and bank credit.Firstly, this paper reviews the research on monetary policy and real estate market at home and abroad, and collates the relevant literature.Then, the theory of price determination and equilibrium of real estate market is expounded, and the intermediate index of monetary policy is analyzed.Then the theoretical mechanism of monetary policy on real estate price regulation is studied from three aspects: interest rate, reserve ratio and bank credit.Then, this article collates the statistics related data, uses the chart to our country real estate market development present situation and the monetary policy control effect in the past years has carried on the visual explanation, and pointed out our country real estate market development in the extant question.After describing the present situation, the paper makes an empirical analysis.In the empirical part, we choose the latest data using vector autoregressive model.Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to test monetary policy tools and real estate prices. Firstly, virtual variables are introduced to analyze individual policy tools and real estate prices, then interest rate and reserve ratio are established.The VAR model of bank credit and house price.The empirical results show that interest rate, deposit reserve ratio and bank credit are all Granger reasons of real estate price, but the influence degree of these three factors on real estate price is different, among which bank credit has the greatest influence on real estate price.And the bank credit and real estate prices are positively correlated; the second is the reserve ratio, the reserve ratio and real estate prices are negative correlation; unexpectedly, the interest rate on the real estate market control effect is not significant.Finally, based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from interest rate, deposit reserve ratio, bank credit and so on, in order to promote the development of real estate market in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.0;F299.23

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