本文選題：農(nóng)戶(hù)　切入點(diǎn)：借貸需求　出處：《上海海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展一直是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的根本問(wèn)題之一，而金融市場(chǎng)往往被認(rèn)為對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展能起到重要支撐作用。但現(xiàn)有農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展不完全、不成熟，難以滿(mǎn)足農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展需求。農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)包括然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，具有高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的顯著特征，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)的生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)、借貸、勞動(dòng)供給等都有著顯著影響作用，是影響農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)培育和發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素之一。本文試圖考察風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)供給和需求兩方中需求一方作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究，以期為后來(lái)學(xué)者從需求和供給兩方面探討風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)的的影響奠定基礎(chǔ)，也為當(dāng)前我國(guó)農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)改革提供理論和實(shí)踐分析。 關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以往文獻(xiàn)往往重考察風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨機(jī)性特點(diǎn)，卻忽視了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的模糊性特點(diǎn)。但是，首先，理論文獻(xiàn)論證了決策者決策不僅依賴(lài)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的隨機(jī)性特征，并且依賴(lài)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的模糊性特征；其次，農(nóng)戶(hù)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)往往具有模糊性特征，農(nóng)戶(hù)并不能完全了解甚至刻畫(huà)所面臨的不確定情況；再次，模糊規(guī)避偏好行為邏輯契合農(nóng)戶(hù)實(shí)際決策行為邏輯。模糊規(guī)避偏好行為邏輯為最大最小策略，假定決策者通過(guò)權(quán)衡未來(lái)平均狀況和最差情況來(lái)做出生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)和借貸決策，相比于以往追求未來(lái)平均狀況來(lái)進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)和借貸決策更貼合實(shí)際情況。因此，本文試圖構(gòu)建一個(gè)包含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨機(jī)性和模糊性雙重特點(diǎn)的模糊規(guī)避條件下農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求決策模型。 通過(guò)理論分析及實(shí)證研究，本文考察農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求決策機(jī)制，并以此考察風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格、利率、全要素生產(chǎn)率、資本產(chǎn)出彈性系數(shù)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度、模糊規(guī)避程度、初始財(cái)富稟賦、初始資本量、預(yù)期最差產(chǎn)出等對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求的影響方向及影響機(jī)制。總結(jié)全文，可以得到以下六點(diǎn)主要研究結(jié)論。第一，上海農(nóng)戶(hù)抽樣調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)顯示農(nóng)戶(hù)往往表現(xiàn)出模糊規(guī)避偏好和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避偏好，且模糊規(guī)避和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避偏好不存在顯著相關(guān)關(guān)系。第二，模糊規(guī)避程度越大，農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求對(duì)利率彈性絕對(duì)值越大。第三，文章通過(guò)構(gòu)建農(nóng)戶(hù)模型系統(tǒng)闡述農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求決定機(jī)制，具體而言，農(nóng)戶(hù)在消費(fèi)邊際替代率等于消費(fèi)價(jià)格比率確定最優(yōu)消費(fèi)量，，在資本邊際期望收益等于借貸邊際成本處確定最優(yōu)生產(chǎn)投資量，農(nóng)戶(hù)在確定最優(yōu)消費(fèi)量和最優(yōu)生產(chǎn)投資量基礎(chǔ)上最終確定最優(yōu)借貸量；第四，基于農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求決策機(jī)制，文章從理論方面考察了各因素對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求影響方向及影響機(jī)制，其中影響因素包括農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格、市場(chǎng)利率、全要素生產(chǎn)率、資本產(chǎn)出彈性系數(shù)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度、模糊規(guī)避程度、初始財(cái)富稟賦、初始資本量、預(yù)期最差產(chǎn)出等。第五，利用上海農(nóng)戶(hù)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，文章對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求決策影響因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證，結(jié)果顯示利率、全要素生產(chǎn)率、模糊規(guī)避偏好、最差預(yù)期產(chǎn)出和生命周期變量對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求有顯著影響作用，其中利率對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求彈性最大，暗示對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求影響較大，農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)參與者及政策制定者可利用利率這一工具進(jìn)行應(yīng)對(duì)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)和宏觀調(diào)控。第六，利率對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求有兩重影響。其一，利率影響農(nóng)戶(hù)是否借貸；另一方面，利率對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸需求量影響并不顯著。 上述結(jié)論具有理論和實(shí)踐兩方面意義。從理論方面來(lái)說(shuō)，文章探討了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)借貸市場(chǎng)供需雙方中需求一方的影響機(jī)制，為后來(lái)學(xué)者從需求和供給兩方面考察風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)提供了理論基礎(chǔ)，豐富了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)作用機(jī)制的文獻(xiàn)。從實(shí)踐方面來(lái)說(shuō)，有助于我們考察由于宏觀”金融危機(jī)”等經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)變化導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)預(yù)期不明朗對(duì)農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)、農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，為應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)戶(hù)生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)決策提供相應(yīng)前提和基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:Rural economic development has been one of the fundamental problems faced by China ' s economy , and financial market is often considered to play an important role in economic development . However , the existing rural financial market is not completely and immature , it is difficult to meet the needs of rural economic development . It is a key factor that affects the cultivation and development of rural financial markets .

As to the risk , the past literature often focuses on the stochastic characteristics of risk , but neglects the fuzzy characteristic of risk . However , firstly , the theoretical literature demonstrates that decision - maker ' s decision - making depends not only on the randomness of the risk , but also on the fuzzy characteristic of risk .
Secondly , the risk of farmers often has vague characteristics , and farmers can ' t fully understand and even depict the uncertain situation .
Thirdly , fuzzy evasion preference behavior logic is the logic of farmer ' s actual decision - making behavior . Fuzzy avoidance preference behavior logic is the largest minimum strategy , and it is assumed that decision - makers can make production , consumption and lending decisions by weighing the future average condition and the worst case . Therefore , this paper tries to construct a decision - making model of farmer ' s credit demand under fuzzy avoidance conditions including risk randomness and ambiguity .

Through theoretical analysis and empirical research , this paper investigates the mechanism of farmer ' s loan demand decision - making , and then examines the impact direction and influence mechanism of the risk , agricultural product price , interest rate , total factor productivity , capital output elastic coefficient , risk aversion degree , risk degree , fuzzy evasion degree , initial wealth endowment , initial capital quantity , expected worst output , etc .
Fourth , on the basis of the decision - making mechanism of farmer ' s credit demand , the paper studies the influence direction and the influence mechanism of the factors on the demand of farmer ' s loan from the theory aspect , including the price of agricultural products , market interest rate , total factor productivity , capital output elasticity coefficient , risk aversion degree , risk degree , fuzzy evasion degree , initial wealth endowment , initial capital quantity and expected worst output .
On the other hand , the effect of interest rate on farmers ' borrowing demand is not significant .

In terms of theory , this paper probes into the influence mechanism of the risk on the demand side of farmers ' loan market supply and demand , and provides a theoretical basis for later scholars to study the risk to the rural financial market from the aspects of demand and supply .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.6;F832.43

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