本文選題：存款利率市場(chǎng)化　切入點(diǎn)：存款利率　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文主要研究存款利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)中國實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用機(jī)制和預(yù)期效應(yīng)分析。自1993年我國政府正式提出利率市場(chǎng)化改革的基本設(shè)想以來,利率改革得以穩(wěn)步推進(jìn),如今已經(jīng)步入改革的深水區(qū),只有存款利率市場(chǎng)化這一步有待完成。作為市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)重要變量,利率對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)既是一個(gè)重要的價(jià)格參考,也影響著實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的多個(gè)因素。本文在參考了一系列利率市場(chǎng)化研究后,對(duì)存款利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)行研究,主要考察存款利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)國內(nèi)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用機(jī)制以及效用分析。在導(dǎo)論和文獻(xiàn)綜述后,本文于第三章先對(duì)1993年以來我國利率改革進(jìn)程的各項(xiàng)政策與數(shù)據(jù)做了簡要的梳理和分析；到第四章,闡述了存款利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用機(jī)制：在中短期,存款利率的市場(chǎng)化會(huì)通過信貸市場(chǎng)影響到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)。根據(jù)IS-LM模型,投資、消費(fèi)會(huì)減少,儲(chǔ)蓄上升。在長期,本文運(yùn)用麥金農(nóng)-肖的金融自由論,闡明存款利率市場(chǎng)化在長期是通過成熟的利率形成機(jī)制對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生積極的作用,并與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)互相影響,但這些必須建立在金融市場(chǎng)自由化的前提下。第五章,本文進(jìn)一步對(duì)存款利率市場(chǎng)化的作用進(jìn)行分析,主要是分析存款利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)儲(chǔ)蓄、投資、消費(fèi)等因素的影響。本文通過對(duì)已實(shí)現(xiàn)利率市場(chǎng)化的日本存款利率市場(chǎng)化前后的實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)做格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)：日本的存款利率與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的儲(chǔ)蓄、投資、消費(fèi)、GDP存在長期均衡的線性關(guān)系。存款利率的變動(dòng)是造成日本GDP變動(dòng)的原因,存款利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)日本實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)確實(shí)造成了影響,減緩了實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。接著結(jié)合中國的實(shí)際分析國內(nèi)利率市場(chǎng)化的可能效應(yīng)。綜合以上的研究結(jié)果,本文最后給出的政策分析是,在短期,存款利率的放開會(huì)給實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來一定程度的沖擊,但是,長期來看,存款利率市場(chǎng)化會(huì)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生積極作用。政府近一年加快了利率市場(chǎng)化的進(jìn)程,但要注意推進(jìn)過程中對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制。另一方面,也要不斷放開對(duì)利率市場(chǎng)、金融市場(chǎng)各個(gè)方面的限制,但要加強(qiáng)對(duì)金融機(jī)構(gòu)的監(jiān)督管理。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the mechanism and expected effect of the marketization of deposit interest rate on the real economy of China. Since 1993, the Chinese government formally put forward the basic assumption of the market-oriented interest rate reform, the interest rate reform has been promoted steadily. Now that we have entered the deep water area of reform, only the step of marketization of deposit interest rates has yet to be completed. As an important variable in the market economy, interest rates are an important price reference for the real economy. It also affects many factors of the real economy. After referring to a series of research on marketization of interest rate, this paper studies the marketization of deposit interest rate. This paper mainly studies the mechanism and utility analysis of the marketization of deposit interest rate on the domestic real economy. In the third chapter, the author makes a brief analysis of the policies and data of the interest rate reform process since 1993, and in chapter 4th, expounds the mechanism of the marketization of deposit interest rate on the real economy: in the short and medium term, The marketization of deposit interest rates will affect the real economy through the credit market. According to the IS-LM model, investment, consumption will decrease, savings will rise. In the long run, this paper applies McKinnon-Shaw 's theory of financial freedom. It is explained that the marketization of deposit interest rate in the long run is a positive effect on the real economy through the mature interest rate forming mechanism, and it affects each other with the real economy, but these must be established on the premise of financial market liberalization. Chapter 5th, This paper further analyzes the role of the marketization of deposit interest rates, mainly to analyze the impact of the marketization of deposit interest rates on savings and investment in the real economy. This paper makes a Granger causality test on the real economy data before and after the marketization of Japanese deposit interest rate, and finds out that the deposit interest rate in Japan and the savings and investment in the real economy. The change of deposit interest rate is the reason for the change of GDP in Japan, and the marketization of deposit interest rate does have an impact on the real economy of Japan. It slows down the development of the real economy. Then it analyzes the possible effect of domestic interest rate marketization combined with the actual situation in China. Synthesizing the above research results, the policy analysis given in this paper is: in the short term, The liberalization of deposit interest rates will have a certain impact on the real economy. However, in the long run, the marketization of deposit interest rates will have a positive effect on the real economy. The government has accelerated the process of interest rate liberalization in the past year. On the other hand, it is necessary to liberalize the restrictions on interest rate market and financial market, but also to strengthen the supervision and management of financial institutions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F832.5

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