本文選題：年度業(yè)績預(yù)告　切入點(diǎn)：事件研究法　出處：《北京物資學(xué)院》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文運(yùn)用我國A股市場2013年上市公司年度業(yè)績預(yù)告數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)當(dāng)前我國業(yè)績預(yù)告制度實(shí)施情況進(jìn)行研究。從總體上看，我國A股市場業(yè)績預(yù)告制度實(shí)施情況較為良好。2013年有76.99%的上市公司發(fā)布了業(yè)績預(yù)告，強(qiáng)制性披露和自愿性披露的業(yè)績預(yù)告約各占一半。這說明我國強(qiáng)制性披露和自愿性披露的業(yè)績預(yù)告制度正在逐漸建成。從精確性角度看，以點(diǎn)估計(jì)形式披露的業(yè)績預(yù)告占比最高，其次是區(qū)間估計(jì),最后是定性描述。點(diǎn)估計(jì)比率大幅提高，定性描述比率顯著下降，業(yè)績預(yù)告精確性在提升。我們還從精確性的角度發(fā)現(xiàn)了上市公司在面對(duì)好消息時(shí)謹(jǐn)慎，面對(duì)壞消息時(shí)悲觀的傾向。從準(zhǔn)確性角度看，由于業(yè)績預(yù)告可以進(jìn)行修正，最后一份業(yè)績預(yù)告的準(zhǔn)確率高達(dá)92.84%，上市公司可以在財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告披露前提供較為準(zhǔn)確的業(yè)績預(yù)期。從及時(shí)性的角度看，有80%的上市公司能夠在財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告發(fā)布前20天公布業(yè)績預(yù)告，業(yè)績預(yù)告總體披露較為及時(shí)。 由于創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場具有高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的特征，，且此前學(xué)者沒有專門對(duì)其業(yè)績預(yù)告信息含量進(jìn)行研究，因此本文接著以創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場為切入點(diǎn)，利用事件研究法對(duì)其業(yè)績預(yù)告發(fā)布后股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,并得到了創(chuàng)業(yè)板業(yè)績預(yù)告具有信息含量的結(jié)論。并且，本研究按照業(yè)績披露類型和上市公司規(guī)模對(duì)樣本進(jìn)行分類，分別研究不同類型的上市公司在業(yè)績預(yù)告后的反應(yīng)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)市場對(duì)壞消息的敏感程度高于好消息。小盤股對(duì)消息的敏感程度高于大盤股。壞消息公布后累計(jì)平均超額收益率經(jīng)過短暫的下跌后持續(xù)上升，壞消息有提前泄露的可能。本研究還對(duì)不同類型公司的累計(jì)非正常平均收益率走勢進(jìn)行擬合，從而更直觀的表示出市場對(duì)業(yè)績預(yù)告的反應(yīng)，為投資者理解市場進(jìn)行投資提供參考。
[Abstract]:Based on the annual performance forecast data of listed companies in China's A-share market on 2013, this paper makes a study on the implementation of the current performance forecasting system in China. In 2013, 76.99% listed companies issued performance forecasts. Compulsory disclosure and voluntary disclosure account for about half of the performance forecast. This indicates that the performance forecast system of mandatory disclosure and voluntary disclosure is gradually being established in China. From the perspective of accuracy, The proportion of performance forecast disclosed in the form of point estimation is the highest, followed by interval estimation, and then qualitative description. The ratio of point estimation has been greatly increased, and the qualitative description ratio has decreased significantly. In terms of accuracy, we have also found that listed companies tend to be cautious in the face of good news and pessimistic in the face of bad news. The accuracy of the last performance forecast is as high as 92.84%. Listed companies can provide more accurate performance expectations before the financial reports are disclosed. From a timely point of view, 80% of the listed companies can publish performance forecasts 20 days before the release of the financial reports. Performance forecast overall disclosure is more timely. Because the gem market has the characteristics of high risk, and the previous scholars did not specifically study its performance forecast information content, so this paper takes the gem market as the starting point. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the stock price fluctuation after the announcement of the performance forecast by using the event research method, and obtains the conclusion that the performance forecast of the gem has the information content. This study classifies the samples according to the types of performance disclosure and the size of listed companies. We find that the market is more sensitive to bad news than to good news. Small-cap stocks are more sensitive to news than large-cap stocks. The average excess yield continues to rise after a brief decline, The bad news is likely to leak in advance. This study also fits the cumulative abnormal average yield trend of different types of companies, thus more intuitively showing the market response to the earnings forecast. For investors to understand the market for investment to provide a reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京物資學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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