本文選題：上市公司　切入點(diǎn)：盈利預(yù)測　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在資本市場不斷發(fā)展的過程中,盈利預(yù)測信息將在未來的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告的發(fā)展趨勢中變得越來越受到關(guān)注,對投資者投資決策的影響也越來越大。盈利預(yù)測信息有助于解決上市公司管理層與外部信息使用者之間的信息不對稱問題,能夠有效地減少利用內(nèi)幕信息進(jìn)行內(nèi)幕交易的行為,促進(jìn)證券市場的公正公平。盈利預(yù)測信息還能夠幫助社會(huì)合理配置資源,有助于降低生成信息、傳播信息、分析信息和解釋信息所耗費(fèi)的資源,并在一定程度上減少私人尋找信息的成本,有效地提高了證券市場的效率。1993年我國國務(wù)院首次規(guī)定公開招股說明書中必須披露盈利預(yù)測信息。一直到2001年3月,我國上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露制度處于強(qiáng)制性披露階段,但是在這個(gè)階段盈利預(yù)測信息的質(zhì)量卻一直不高,甚至有一些上市公司故意欺騙投資者,披露的盈利預(yù)測信息是虛假的或者誤導(dǎo)性的,給投資者帶來了很大的困擾。因此,2001年3月證券監(jiān)管部門將盈利預(yù)測制度改為自愿性披露制度,并在隨后的時(shí)間逐漸發(fā)布了一些關(guān)于盈利預(yù)測的規(guī)范性文件。但由于我國證券市場起步較晚,資本市場還處于弱式有效的階段,也未建立完善的盈利預(yù)測信息披露體系,我國上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露還存在著披露意愿不強(qiáng)、質(zhì)量不高、不全面、不及時(shí)等一系列問題。所以本文選擇對我國上市公司的盈利預(yù)測信息披露進(jìn)行研究,采用規(guī)范研究的手段,希望通過相關(guān)研究為解決我國出現(xiàn)的問題提供切實(shí)可靠的建議,促進(jìn)我國上市公司健康發(fā)展,維護(hù)廣大投資者的切身權(quán)益,提高資本市場的有效性。 本文從我國盈利預(yù)測披露的現(xiàn)狀出發(fā),結(jié)合披露出現(xiàn)的問題,認(rèn)為以下幾個(gè)方面是造成這些問題的原因：一是我國上市公司的治理結(jié)構(gòu)不合理；二是披露受到成本效益原則的制約；三是我國缺乏有效的盈利預(yù)測信息供給和需求；四是我國盈利預(yù)測信息披露制度不完善；五是我國缺乏有效的盈利預(yù)測信息監(jiān)管機(jī)制。 美國是證券市場最成熟的國家,也是信息披露制度最為完善的國家,并且已經(jīng)形成了較為完善的盈利預(yù)測信息披露制度和監(jiān)管體系。因此借鑒美國這方面的先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn),有助于推動(dòng)我國上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露制度的建立和完善。美國的盈利預(yù)測信息披露制度經(jīng)過了從禁止披露盈利預(yù)測信息的階段到自愿性披露盈利預(yù)測信息階段。我國可以從美國借鑒的經(jīng)驗(yàn)包括以下方面：一是對盈利預(yù)測信息編制的目的、作用、基本假設(shè)及基本原則,盈利預(yù)測的內(nèi)容、形式及范圍,盈利預(yù)測編制的基本方法與步驟等作出原則性規(guī)范,建立比較完善的盈利預(yù)測信息披露準(zhǔn)則；二是引進(jìn)預(yù)先警示原則和安全港規(guī)則,建立盈利預(yù)測披露的免責(zé)制度,降低上市公司的訴訟風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；三是建立有效的盈利預(yù)測信息更新更正制度,保護(hù)投資者的權(quán)益；四是建立由財(cái)務(wù)分析師為主體的獨(dú)立專家預(yù)測體系,促進(jìn)盈利預(yù)測供給方的競爭,提高盈利預(yù)測信息的可靠性。 在對我國上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息的現(xiàn)狀、問題及產(chǎn)生的原因進(jìn)行分析,并借鑒美國的先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對完善我國上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露提出如下建議：第一,通過引進(jìn)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者,平衡股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)和完善董事會(huì)、監(jiān)事會(huì)制度來加強(qiáng)我國上市公司治理；第二,完善我國上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露制度,如采取建立我國盈利預(yù)測信息披露的專門性法規(guī)、實(shí)行盈利預(yù)測信息強(qiáng)制性與自愿性披露相結(jié)合的制度和建立上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露的免責(zé)制度等措施；第三,強(qiáng)化會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所對盈利預(yù)測信息的審核、完善上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露的民事責(zé)任承擔(dān)制度和加強(qiáng)中介機(jī)構(gòu)的監(jiān)督作用,培養(yǎng)高素質(zhì)財(cái)務(wù)分析師,最終達(dá)到加大對上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露的監(jiān)管力度的效果；第四,加快發(fā)展債券市場,提高我國中小投資者的素質(zhì),壯大機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的隊(duì)伍,以增加我國盈利預(yù)測信息的有效需求。
[Abstract]:In the development process of the capital market, the profit forecast information will be the developing trend in the future of the financial report becomes more and more attention, the investment decision-making influence is also growing. The problem of information asymmetry between the information will help to solve the management of listed companies and external information users can effectively reduce the profit forecast insider trading behavior using insider information, to promote the stock market fair. The profit forecast information can also help social rational allocation of resources, help to reduce the generation of information, dissemination of information, information analysis and interpretation of information resource consumption, and reduce the cost of private search for information in a certain extent, can effectively improve the the efficiency of.1993 stock market in China under the State Council for the first time the IPO must disclose earnings forecast information in the description. Until March 2001, China Company profit forecast information disclosure system at the stage of compulsory disclosure, but at this stage the profit forecast information quality has not high, even some listed companies deliberately deceive investors, earnings forecast information disclosure is false or misleading to investors, has brought great distress. Therefore, the securities regulatory authorities in March 2001 the profit forecast system to the voluntary disclosure system, and then gradually released some time on earnings forecast normative documents. But because of China's securities market started late, the capital market is still in the stage of weak effective, also not established the profit forecast information disclosure system of Listed Companies in China, the profit forecast information disclosure there is disclosed the will is not strong, the quality is not high, not comprehensive, not a series of problems. So this paper chooses the profit growth of Listed Companies in China Information disclosure is studied, and normative research methods are adopted. We hope to provide reliable suggestions for solving the problems in China through related research, so as to promote the healthy development of listed companies, safeguard the rights and interests of investors and improve the effectiveness of capital market.
This article from our earnings forecast disclosure of the status quo, combined with the disclosure of the problems that the following is the cause of these problems: one is the governance structure of Listed Companies in China is unreasonable; the two is restricted by the disclosure of cost benefit principle; the three is China's lack of effective profit forecast information of supply and demand; four is our profit forecast information disclosure system is not perfect; the five is China's lack of effective supervision mechanism of earnings forecast information.
The United States is the most mature stock market in the country, but also the information disclosure system is the most perfect country, and has formed a system of information disclosure and supervision of the complete system of earnings forecast. Therefore learn from the advanced experience of the United States, will help promote China's listed companies earnings forecast to establish and improve the information disclosure system of the United States. The profit forecast information disclosure system after the disclosure of earnings forecasts from the stage to the prohibition of voluntary disclosure of earnings forecast information. Our country can learn from the experience from the United States including the following aspects: one is the profit forecast information compilation purpose, function, basic assumptions and basic principles, the profit forecast the content, form and scope. The basic methods and steps of compiling the earnings forecast to make regulation, perfecting the profit forecast information disclosure standards; two is the introduction of the original pre warning And the safe harbor rules, establish the earnings forecast disclosure exemption system, reduce litigation risk of listed companies; the three is to establish an effective profit forecast information update and correction system, protect the rights and interests of investors; the four is the establishment of independent experts from financial analysts as the main body of the forecasting system, promote the profit forecast of supply side competition, improve the reliability of earnings forecast information.
In the present situation of information of earnings forecast of Chinese listed companies, analyzes the problems and reasons, basis and learn the advanced experience of the United States, the thesis puts forward some suggestions on perfecting the information disclosure of listed company earnings forecast: first, through the introduction of institutional investors, equity structure and perfecting the board of directors, board of supervisors system to strengthen the management of Listed Companies in China; second, improve the predictive information disclosure system of listed companies' earnings, such as special regulations to establish our earnings forecast information disclosure, the disclosure of information to predict the combination of mandatory and voluntary earnings of listed companies profit forecast system and the establishment of exemption system of information disclosure measures; third, strengthening the accounting firm to audit the earnings forecast information, improve the predictive information disclosure of listed company earnings of civil liability system and strengthening medium machine The supervisory role of the training of high-quality financial analysts, to intensify supervision of information disclosure of listed companies earnings forecast the effect; fourth, accelerate development of the bond market, improve the quality of medium and small investors in China, expanding the ranks of institutional investors, with effective demand forecast information to increase China's profit.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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