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商業(yè)體量預(yù)測(cè)方法的應(yīng)用研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-03-03 14:22

  本文選題:商業(yè)地產(chǎn) 切入點(diǎn):商業(yè)體量 出處:《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:本文簡(jiǎn)要分析了我國(guó)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀以及出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題等,指出符合與開(kāi)發(fā)地塊及周邊區(qū)域匹配的商業(yè)體量的重要性。在梳理國(guó)內(nèi)外商業(yè)地產(chǎn)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,基于消費(fèi)者理論、商圈理論等基礎(chǔ)理論,論文結(jié)合商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的特征,從宏觀角度出發(fā),以測(cè)算商業(yè)體量的步驟為方向,以項(xiàng)目本身為分界,,依次從外部和內(nèi)部?jī)蓚(gè)角度來(lái)分析影響商業(yè)體量的因素。 本文采用理論研究與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,具體內(nèi)容分為以下兩部分: 第一部分著重于預(yù)測(cè)商業(yè)體量理論的經(jīng)典理論研究,主要涵蓋雷利法則、康帕斯斷點(diǎn)公式、赫夫概率模型、飽和理論等,分析其應(yīng)用條件及局限性,創(chuàng)新性的將各方法結(jié)合起來(lái),提出預(yù)測(cè)商業(yè)體量的方法:考慮影響因素獲取基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)→運(yùn)用雷利法則、康帕斯斷點(diǎn)公式預(yù)測(cè)商圈范圍→根據(jù)消費(fèi)者需求暫定業(yè)態(tài)→運(yùn)用赫夫概率模型預(yù)測(cè)消費(fèi)者人流量→運(yùn)用飽和理論分析競(jìng)爭(zhēng)情況和市場(chǎng)飽和度→確定商業(yè)體量。 第二部分主要對(duì)鄭州市中州大道與商都路交叉口白莊街以北某一地塊進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,將商業(yè)體量預(yù)測(cè)方法流程用于預(yù)測(cè)此地塊用于商業(yè)地產(chǎn)時(shí)的適宜體量,驗(yàn)證其實(shí)用性,并對(duì)計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析,使整個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)方法更具有實(shí)際運(yùn)用價(jià)值。 最后,文章在實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上提出了相應(yīng)的結(jié)論并提出一定的建議。
[Abstract]:This paper briefly analyzes the present situation and problems of commercial real estate in China, and points out the importance of commercial volume matching with the development plots and the surrounding areas. Based on the research results of commercial real estate at home and abroad, based on the consumer theory, The basic theories, such as the commercial circle theory, combine the characteristics of the commercial real estate, from the macro point of view, take the steps of calculating the commercial volume as the direction, and take the project itself as the boundary. The factors that affect the volume of business are analyzed from the external and internal perspectives in turn. This paper uses the method of combining theoretical research and empirical analysis, the specific content is divided into the following two parts:. The first part focuses on the classical theory of predicting commercial volume theory, including Rayleigh's rule, Compasian breakpoint formula, Herbert probability model, saturation theory and so on, and analyzes its application conditions and limitations. Innovative combination of methods to propose a method for predicting business volume: taking into account factors to obtain basic data. 鈫扷sing Rayleigh's Rule and Compasian breakpoint Formula to predict the area of Commercial Circle. 鈫扨rovisional format based on consumer demand. 鈫扚orecasting the flow of consumers by using the Herbert probability Model. 鈫扐nalysis of Competition and Market saturation using saturation Theory. 鈫扗etermine the volume of business. The second part mainly carries on the empirical research to a plot north of Baizhuang Street, the intersection of Zhongzhou Avenue and Shangdu Road in Zhengzhou City. The commercial volume forecasting method is used to predict the suitable volume of the plot when it is used in commercial real estate, and the practicability is verified. The calculation results are analyzed, so that the whole prediction method has practical application value. Finally, on the basis of empirical research, the paper puts forward the corresponding conclusions and some suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:F299.23

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張宇;吳t

本文編號(hào):1561404


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