本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格水平的關(guān)聯(lián)性實(shí)證分析　出處：《上海師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 間接融資 直接融資 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格 股票市場(chǎng)

【摘要】：2011年4月14日中國(guó)人民銀行首次對(duì)外發(fā)布了“社會(huì)融資規(guī)�！弊鳛楦訌V義的貨幣流通量監(jiān)測(cè)指標(biāo)。運(yùn)用該指標(biāo)統(tǒng)計(jì)我國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中得到的金融體系資金支持,并系統(tǒng)地將我國(guó)社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)分為以銀行本外幣貸款為主的間接融資和以信托貸款、委托貸款、企業(yè)債券、非金融企業(yè)IPO融資等為主的直接融資。但是從目前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)來(lái)看,我國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)在融資規(guī)模飛速增長(zhǎng)的狀況下卻出現(xiàn)了相對(duì)走弱的趨勢(shì)。著名學(xué)者劉煜輝先生將該現(xiàn)象稱之為“潛在增長(zhǎng)下沉”,同時(shí)提出了我國(guó)社會(huì)融資在支持實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)程中可能存在向虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)分流的問(wèn)題�；谖覈�(guó)長(zhǎng)久的融資狀況,大多數(shù)研究集中在銀行信貸為主的間接融資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系上,從信貸的角度研究了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,股市增長(zhǎng)量等相關(guān)指標(biāo)的關(guān)系,驗(yàn)證了銀行信貸對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的促進(jìn)作用以及在銀行信貸過(guò)程中資金流向房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的事實(shí)。但是,近年來(lái)我國(guó)直接融資的規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,多種層次的金融市場(chǎng)逐漸完善,形成社會(huì)融資規(guī)模中直接融資和間接融資勢(shì)均力敵的局面。然而,從直接融資出發(fā)來(lái)分析實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)和虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)導(dǎo)向的研究相對(duì)空白,同時(shí)關(guān)于直接融資和間接融資這兩種貨幣釋放的途徑以及實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)獲得流動(dòng)性支持的研究十分有限,已有的則多數(shù)集中在單一領(lǐng)域效率的探究中。就目前融資發(fā)展形勢(shì)來(lái)看,直接融資的規(guī)模將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大,開(kāi)始逐漸替代間接融資成為實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)支持的主力,同時(shí)作為我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)改革的突破口,被寄予了更多的創(chuàng)新意義。未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中間接融資與直接融資保持一個(gè)均衡合理的結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系,打破市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)有的銀行獨(dú)大局面,對(duì)優(yōu)化資本市場(chǎng)融資結(jié)構(gòu)體系,提高實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)融資效率有重大理論意義。本文依照貨幣流動(dòng)性對(duì)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的理論依據(jù)入手,從虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的分流溢出角度切入,采用量化模型分析社會(huì)融資對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持影響,并分直接融資和間接融資兩部分做結(jié)構(gòu)化對(duì)比,以融資過(guò)程中的漏出貨幣數(shù)量來(lái)進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。本文選取了央行發(fā)布的“社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)”中社會(huì)間接融資、社會(huì)直接融資來(lái)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,同時(shí)依據(jù)現(xiàn)有經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ瓦x用工業(yè)增加值、CP1、M2等指標(biāo)來(lái)說(shuō)明實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、物價(jià)水平、貨幣供應(yīng)量之間構(gòu)建的穩(wěn)定關(guān)系。建立實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)VAR方程得到銀行信貸、直接融資的模型估計(jì)值與央行統(tǒng)計(jì)值之間的殘差,定義該殘差為實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)在吸納融資過(guò)程中漏出的部分貨幣供應(yīng)量,進(jìn)一步將該殘差作為變量做與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、股票市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)性影響研究。整個(gè)研究過(guò)程中每一步驟都采用了直接融資和間接融資的對(duì)比效應(yīng),分析兩者在影響經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格方面的差異,從融資結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的方向來(lái)統(tǒng)籌全文。 全文主要章節(jié)安排如下：第1章導(dǎo)論,闡述了本文的研究背景,目的意義,研究方法結(jié)構(gòu)以及本文的主要貢獻(xiàn)；第2章相關(guān)理論與文獻(xiàn)綜述,分別研究了國(guó)內(nèi)外在該領(lǐng)域現(xiàn)階段的研究水平；第3章我國(guó)社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)變遷及資產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素,闡述了我國(guó)社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和未來(lái)趨勢(shì),分析了影響資產(chǎn)價(jià)格水平的主要因素以及融資結(jié)構(gòu)與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的作用機(jī)理；第4章社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響的比較實(shí)證分析,首先分別建立了銀行貸款和社會(huì)直接融資與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)主要指標(biāo)的VAR向量自回歸方程,通過(guò)Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解法,驗(yàn)證了經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的相互關(guān)系,以及與銀行貸款、直接融資之間的對(duì)比影響關(guān)系。最終得到了分融資結(jié)構(gòu)不同的銀行貸款統(tǒng)計(jì)值和VAR模型估計(jì)值的殘差、社會(huì)直接融資統(tǒng)計(jì)值和VAR模型估計(jì)值的殘差,用來(lái)表示融資在支持實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)程中的漏出部分,然后利用前期的殘差,作為一個(gè)變量,引入后續(xù)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格水平VAR模型,再依據(jù)現(xiàn)實(shí)實(shí)證經(jīng)驗(yàn)分別加入影響股票市場(chǎng)、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的其他影響變量建立模型。對(duì)比分析得出實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的融資流出與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)關(guān)系明顯,這也和我國(guó)近幾年房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)飛速發(fā)展,整體規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)超股票市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀相一致,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的火爆吸引了大量的資金。而且從本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果猜想,有一部分資金可能是從實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的社會(huì)融資中分流而得,并且分融資結(jié)構(gòu)導(dǎo)致分流作用也有一定差異；第5章實(shí)證結(jié)論的解釋與政策建議,解釋以上實(shí)證的結(jié)果給出了在融資結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化，房地產(chǎn)融資監(jiān)管等方向的政策建議；第6章結(jié)論，對(duì)現(xiàn)有結(jié)果進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，展望未來(lái)研究側(cè)重點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:In April 14, 2011 the people's Bank of Chinese released the first "social financing scale" as the amount of money in circulation monitoring indicators more generalized. The financial system support funds obtained by using the index statistics of China's real economy development process, and the system of China's social financing structure is divided into indirect financing to bank loans in foreign currencies and mainly to trust loans, entrusted loans, corporate bonds, direct financing of non financial enterprises IPO financing and so on. But from the current economic situation, China's real economy in the scale of financing the rapid growth of the situation but the relative weakening trend. The famous scholar Mr. Liu Yuhui called this phenomenon "sink potential growth", at the same time put forward China's social financing may be diverted to the virtual economy in the process to support the real economy. China's long-term financing situation based on the most The research focused on indirect financing of bank credit for the economic development of the relationship, from the perspective of the credit of the real estate price, relationship between stock market growth rate, to verify the role of bank credit to the real economy and the fact that in the process of bank credit capital flow to the real estate market. However, in recent years China's direct financing scale is continually expanding, multi-level financial market gradually perfect, the formation of direct financing and indirect financing of social financing scale well-matched in strength situation. However, the research from the direct financing of the real economy and the virtual economy analysis oriented relatively empty, at the same time on the way of direct financing and indirect financing of the two currencies the release of the real economy and obtain liquidity support is very limited, the most concentrated exploration efficiency in single field. The current financial Capital development situation, direct financing will further expand the scale, began to gradually replace the indirect financing into the real economy of the main support, at the same time as a breakthrough in China's financial market reform, has been more innovative. To maintain a balanced and reasonable structure of the future relationship between direct and indirect financing of economic development, to break the existing market the bank monopoly, on the financing structure optimization of capital market, has important theoretical significance to improve the financing efficiency of the real economy. According to the theoretical basis of monetary liquidity on the price fluctuation of the start, starting from the real economy shunt Spillovers of fictitious economy, the quantitative analysis model of social support and financing the impact on the real economy, and the two part of direct financing and indirect financing to do structured comparison, the number of leakage of currency to the financing process to verify the anthology. The central bank issued the "social financing structure" in the society of indirect financing, direct financing to society are analyzed, at the same time on the basis of the existing empirical model selection of industrial added value, CP1, M2 and other indicators to explain economic growth, the real economy in the price level, the construction of stable relationship between money supply. The establishment of real economy VAR equation bank credit, direct financing model to estimate the residual value and between the central bank statistics, the definition of the residual part of the money supply in the real economy to absorb the leakage in the process of financing, the residuals as the variables and the real estate market, correlation between the impact of the stock market. The whole research process of each step are used comparison of effects of direct and indirect financing, analysis of both the impact of the economic operation, differences in asset prices, from the financing structure optimization direction to the whole paper.
The main sections are as follows: the first chapter is introduction, describes the research background, the purpose and significance, research methods and structure of main contribution of this paper; the second chapter related theory and literature review, the research level in this field at home and abroad at this stage of the study; Chapter third factors affecting China's social financing structure and asset prices. Describes the development of China's social financing structure and future trends, analyzes the main factors influencing the level of asset prices and financing structure and asset price mechanism; analysis and comparison of the fourth chapter of empirical research on the influence of social financing structure of asset prices, firstly established the VAR vector main indicators of economic and social financing and bank loans directly from the entity the regression equation, the Johansen cointegration test, Grainger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition method is proved between economic variables The relationship between, and bank loans, compared the impact of direct financing. The relationship between the obtained points and different financing structure of bank lending statistics and VAR model to estimate the value of residuals, social statistics and direct financing VAR model to estimate the value of residuals, used to represent the leakage part of the financing in support of the real economy, and then use the the residual, as a variable, the introduction of asset price level VAR model further, and then on the basis of the reality of empirical experience were added to the impact of the stock market and other variables to establish the model of the real estate market. The relationship of analysis than the real economy financing flows and real estate price fluctuations obviously, this is also our country in recent years the real estate industry rapid development, consistent with the overall status of far more than the size of the stock market, the real estate industry is hot to attract a lot of money. But from the empirical results That part of the funds may be from the real economy and the financing of social financing and shunt, structure leads to shunt function also has the certain difference; explanation and policy suggestions for the fifth chapter conclusion, explain the above empirical results are given in the optimization of financing structure, real estate financing supervision and direction of policy recommendations; Sixth conclusion to evaluate the existing results, the future research emphasis.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.48;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 曾五一;李想;;中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格泡沫的檢驗(yàn)與成因機(jī)理研究[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2011年01期

2 史青青;費(fèi)方域;;信貸資金進(jìn)入股票市場(chǎng)分析[J];系統(tǒng)管理學(xué)報(bào);2011年05期

，

本文編號(hào)：1358823