發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-05 11:20

【摘要】：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將繼續(xù)保持良好勢頭，同時(shí)也面臨著關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)型。經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展與轉(zhuǎn)型必將對中國銅產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展帶來巨大的影響。中國銅產(chǎn)業(yè)將會受到怎樣的影響？這種影響表現(xiàn)在銅產(chǎn)業(yè)各環(huán)節(jié)的供需指標(biāo)上將會是怎樣的變化趨勢？面對這種影響及變化，中國銅產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)當(dāng)如何應(yīng)對？這些都是急需研究和回答的問題。研究中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對銅產(chǎn)業(yè)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制能夠回答上述問題。本文在構(gòu)建“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長-銅產(chǎn)業(yè)”系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型的基礎(chǔ)上，界定并分析了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對銅產(chǎn)業(yè)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，并采用情景分析法分析了三種不同發(fā)展情景下中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長趨勢及其對銅產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響結(jié)果。本文的研究工作和主要貢獻(xiàn)集中在以下四個方面： （1）界定了“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長-銅產(chǎn)業(yè)”系統(tǒng)�！敖�(jīng)濟(jì)增長-銅產(chǎn)業(yè)”系統(tǒng)是指在經(jīng)濟(jì)和產(chǎn)業(yè)運(yùn)行背景下，由經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口、銅產(chǎn)業(yè)等多種系統(tǒng)要素耦合而成的復(fù)合系統(tǒng)。該系統(tǒng)包含經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和銅產(chǎn)業(yè)兩個子系統(tǒng)，兩個子系統(tǒng)之間相互作用、互為影響。 （2）構(gòu)建了“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長-銅產(chǎn)業(yè)”系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型。本文基于產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈理論分析了銅產(chǎn)業(yè)的主要特征和組成環(huán)節(jié)，采用物質(zhì)流分析法分析了銅產(chǎn)業(yè)子系統(tǒng)的要素因果關(guān)系和反饋機(jī)制，然后通過分析中國銅產(chǎn)業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系，構(gòu)建了“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長-銅產(chǎn)業(yè)”系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型。 （3）界定并分析了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對銅產(chǎn)業(yè)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制�！敖�(jīng)濟(jì)增長-銅產(chǎn)業(yè)”系統(tǒng)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制就是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長在發(fā)揮作用的過程中，各經(jīng)濟(jì)增長要素和銅產(chǎn)業(yè)指標(biāo)通過精銅需求變化作用形成的一個有機(jī)聯(lián)系的整體。 （4）采用情景分析法，計(jì)算并分析了2012-2030年三種發(fā)展情景下的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長結(jié)果及其對銅產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響并提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。情景分析結(jié)果顯示，在2012-2030年，年均增速較大的指標(biāo)為銅精礦產(chǎn)量、精銅產(chǎn)量、精銅消費(fèi)量、銅材產(chǎn)量、廢銅間接利用量和廢銅累計(jì)回收量。這些指標(biāo)都是國內(nèi)產(chǎn)能，意味著國內(nèi)產(chǎn)能在中國銅產(chǎn)業(yè)中將發(fā)揮越來越重要的作用。在銅礦采選環(huán)節(jié)，銅精礦進(jìn)口依然是銅礦資源的主要供給來源。但是，銅精礦進(jìn)口量在大幅下降。在銅精煉環(huán)節(jié)，精銅產(chǎn)量始終大于精銅進(jìn)口量，意味著國內(nèi)產(chǎn)能依然是精銅的主要供給來源。在廢銅回收利用環(huán)節(jié)，進(jìn)口廢銅量依然是廢銅回收利用的主體，其用量要大于銅精煉和銅加工環(huán)節(jié)回收的廢銅量。 因此，我國在繼續(xù)重視銅精礦進(jìn)口的基礎(chǔ)上，，鞏固和保持現(xiàn)有的進(jìn)口關(guān)系和渠道；精銅產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)應(yīng)當(dāng)保持在950萬噸到1300萬噸之間；銅資源城市或企業(yè)應(yīng)當(dāng)在2020年之前實(shí)現(xiàn)城市產(chǎn)業(yè)或企業(yè)發(fā)展的轉(zhuǎn)型升級，以規(guī)避銅需求下降帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；銅加工產(chǎn)能調(diào)控目標(biāo)應(yīng)當(dāng)在2000萬噸以內(nèi)，鼓勵銅加工業(yè)向其它發(fā)展中國家轉(zhuǎn)移；擴(kuò)大廢銅進(jìn)口量，保證廢銅進(jìn)口量至少能夠達(dá)到850萬噸，提升企業(yè)對促進(jìn)再生銅資源利用的技術(shù)能力。
[Abstract]:China's economic growth will continue to maintain a good momentum, but also face a key transformation. The development and transformation of economy will have a great impact on the development of copper industry in China. How will China's copper industry be affected? This kind of influence is manifested in the copper industry each link supply and demand index will be what kind of change trend? In the face of this influence and change, how should China's copper industry deal with it? These are questions that need to be studied and answered urgently. The study of the transmission mechanism of China's economic growth to the copper industry can answer the above questions. On the basis of constructing the system dynamics model of "economic growth-copper industry", this paper defines and analyzes the transmission mechanism of economic growth to copper industry. The situation analysis method is used to analyze the economic growth trend of China and its influence on copper industry under three different development scenarios. The research work and main contributions of this paper focus on the following four aspects: (1) the system of "economic growth-copper industry" is defined. "Economic growth-copper industry" system refers to a composite system which is composed of many system elements, such as economy, population, copper industry and so on, under the background of economy and industrial operation. The system consists of two subsystems: economic growth and copper industry, which interact and influence each other. (2) the system dynamics model of "economic growth-copper industry" is constructed. Based on the theory of industrial chain, this paper analyzes the main characteristics and components of copper industry, analyzes the causality and feedback mechanism of copper industry subsystems by means of material flow analysis, and then analyzes the relationship between copper industry and economic growth in China. The system dynamics model of "economic growth-copper industry" is constructed. (3) the transmission mechanism of economic growth to copper industry is defined and analyzed. The transmission mechanism of "economic growth-copper industry" system is an organic whole formed by the change of demand for refined copper through the factors of economic growth and the index of copper industry in the process of economic growth. (4) by using situational analysis method, this paper calculates and analyzes the results of China's economic growth and its influence on copper industry under the three development scenarios from 2012 to 2030, and puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions. The results of scenario analysis show that from 2012 to 2030, the average annual growth rate is copper concentrate production, refined copper consumption, copper material output, indirect utilization of waste copper and cumulative recovery of waste copper. These indicators are domestic capacity, meaning that domestic capacity will play an increasingly important role in China's copper industry. In the process of copper mining and separation, the import of copper concentrate is still the main supply source of copper resources. However, copper concentrate imports are falling sharply. In copper refining, the output of refined copper has always been larger than the import of refined copper, which means that domestic production capacity is still the main source of supply of refined copper. In the recovery and utilization of copper waste, the amount of imported copper is still the main body of copper recovery and utilization, and its dosage is larger than that of copper refining and copper processing. Therefore, on the basis of continuing to attach importance to the import of copper concentrate, China should consolidate and maintain the existing import relations and channels, and the target of refined copper production should be between 9.5 million tons and 13 million tons. Cities or enterprises with copper resources should realize the transformation and upgrading of urban industry or enterprise development by 2020 in order to avoid the risk caused by the decline of copper demand. The target of regulating and controlling the production capacity of copper processing shall be less than 20 million tons, and the copper processing industry shall be encouraged to transfer to other developing countries; Expand the import of copper waste, ensure that the import of copper waste can reach at least 8.5 million tons, and enhance the technical ability of enterprises to promote the utilization of recycled copper resources.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.32;F124.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李鋼;陳志;金碚;崔云;;礦產(chǎn)資源對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長約束的估計(jì)[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2008年07期

2 王華俊;;美國銅消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)變化追蹤——近20年美國銅消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)及銅循環(huán)利用趨勢分析[J];世界有色金屬;2008年04期

3 王高尚,韓梅;中國重要礦產(chǎn)資源的需求預(yù)測[J];地球?qū)W報(bào);2002年06期

4 王安建;王高尚;陳其慎;于汶加;;礦產(chǎn)資源需求理論與模型預(yù)測[J];地球?qū)W報(bào);2010年02期

5 陳其慎;王高尚;王安建;;銅、鋁需求“S”形規(guī)律的三個轉(zhuǎn)變點(diǎn)剖析[J];地球?qū)W報(bào);2010年05期

6 陳南祥;霍洪媛;;黃河下游影響帶地下水系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)特征[J];灌溉排水學(xué)報(bào);2008年03期

7 朱躍中;未來中國交通運(yùn)輸部門能源發(fā)展與碳排放情景分析[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì);2001年12期

8 王其藩,徐波,吳冰,賈建國;SD模型在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施研究中的應(yīng)用[J];管理工程學(xué)報(bào);1999年02期

9 岳強(qiáng);陸鐘武;;An Analysis of Contemporary Copper Recycling in China[J];過程工程學(xué)報(bào);2006年04期

10 李萬立;旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈與中國旅游業(yè)競爭力[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)師;2005年03期

本文編號：2493490