【摘要】：為了實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的快速穩(wěn)定增長，促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級，形成出口優(yōu)勢，我國需要制定合適的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策與貿(mào)易政策來引導和實現(xiàn)政策目標。在制定政策過程中，貿(mào)易政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)政策協(xié)調(diào)是政府引導經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展，結(jié)構(gòu)健康穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)。而制定協(xié)調(diào)的貿(mào)易政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的難點在于很難把握政策之間的相互作用。 基于結(jié)構(gòu)視角來研究政策協(xié)調(diào)問題，就是在貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)上研究兩個結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)調(diào)問題。在結(jié)構(gòu)視角下，貿(mào)易政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)政策協(xié)調(diào)的目標就是貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的良性互動。 通過考察1980-2012年我國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演進過程，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展存在許多問題，而且貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間缺乏協(xié)調(diào)性。通過采用SITC一級分類法量化貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)，采用三次產(chǎn)業(yè)分類法量化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。在1980-2012年我國貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)與產(chǎn)值數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上計算得出了我國進口結(jié)構(gòu)變動效應(yīng)、出口結(jié)構(gòu)變動效應(yīng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動效應(yīng)。通過采用經(jīng)典回歸分析、時滯分析、格蘭杰因果檢驗和向量自回歸分析等方法，，分析了進口結(jié)構(gòu)變動效應(yīng)、出口結(jié)構(gòu)變動效應(yīng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動效應(yīng)的相互作用關(guān)系，得出了進口結(jié)構(gòu)變動是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動的格蘭杰原因，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動是出口結(jié)構(gòu)變動的格蘭杰原因的結(jié)論。 在明確了進口結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和出口結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系后，對于制定協(xié)調(diào)性的貿(mào)易政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)政策提供了有效的參考。這說明我國應(yīng)該制定吸引高新科技產(chǎn)品進口，促進資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口的貿(mào)易政策以及鼓勵企業(yè)創(chuàng)新，提高質(zhì)量的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策。
[Abstract]:In order to achieve rapid and stable economic growth, promote the upgrading of industrial structure and form export advantages, China needs to formulate appropriate industrial and trade policies to guide and realize the policy objectives. In the process of policy formulation, the coordination of trade policy and industrial policy is the foundation of the government to guide the rapid development of economy and the healthy and stable structure. The difficulty of formulating coordinated trade policy and industrial policy is that it is difficult to grasp the interaction between policies. To study policy coordination from the perspective of structure is to study the coordination between trade structure and industrial structure. From the perspective of structure, the goal of the coordination of trade policy and industrial policy is the benign interaction between trade structure and industrial structure. By examining the evolution of China's trade structure and industrial structure from 1980 to 2012, it is found that there are many problems in the development of China's trade structure and industrial structure, and there is a lack of coordination between trade structure and industrial structure. The trade structure is quantified by SITC first class classification, and the industrial structure is quantified by three industrial classification method. Based on the trade data and output value data from 1980 to 2012, the effects of import structure change, export structure change and industrial structure change are calculated. By means of classical regression analysis, time-delay analysis, Granger causality test and vector self-regression analysis, this paper analyzes the interaction among import structure change effect, export structure change effect and industrial structure change effect. It is concluded that the change of import structure is the Granger cause of industrial structure change, and the industrial structure change is Granger reason of export structure change. After clarifying the relationship among import structure, industrial structure and export structure, it provides an effective reference for the formulation of coordinated trade policy and industrial policy. This indicates that China should formulate the trade policy to attract the import of high-tech products, promote the export of capital-technology-intensive products, and encourage enterprises to innovate and improve their quality.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.0;F124

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