“特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”框架下的美國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-03 19:52
【摘要】：根據(jù)當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)判斷,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)兩年內(nèi)仍將保持弱勢(shì)復(fù)蘇的態(tài)勢(shì),與"特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)"所預(yù)期的實(shí)現(xiàn)GDP每年增長(zhǎng)3%的目標(biāo)存在一定差距。"特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)"框架下的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策將圍繞貿(mào)易保護(hù)、稅收改革、加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和放松金融監(jiān)管四個(gè)核心展開(kāi)。本文分析了特朗普政府的貿(mào)易政策、財(cái)政政策、金融監(jiān)管改革政策以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的貨幣政策,認(rèn)為特朗普政府的貿(mào)易政策在短期內(nèi)可能有利于凈出口的增長(zhǎng),但從長(zhǎng)期看,這是逆全球化的焚林竭澤之舉;受制于財(cái)政赤字和債務(wù)上限,減稅和增加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資對(duì)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的效果存在不確定性;放松監(jiān)管有益于通過(guò)釋放金融活力促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),但也可能誘發(fā)系統(tǒng)性的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。貨幣政策相對(duì)獨(dú)立,加息與縮表將以漸進(jìn)、緩慢的方式進(jìn)行。
[Abstract]:Judging by current economic data, the U.S. economy is expected to maintain a weak recovery for the next two years, a gap from the Trump-Economics target of 3 percent GDP growth per year. Macroeconomic policy under the Trump Economics framework will focus on four core areas: trade protection, tax reform, infrastructure strengthening and financial deregulation. This article analyzes the Trump administration's trade policy, fiscal policy, financial regulatory reform policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. It concludes that the Trump administration's trade policy may be conducive to net export growth in the short term, but in the long run, This is an act of incineration against globalization; Restricted by the fiscal deficit and debt ceiling, there is uncertainty about the effect of tax reduction and increasing investment in infrastructure construction on the effect of stimulating economic growth; Deregulation helps boost economic growth by unleashing financial activity, but it can also trigger systemic financial risk. Monetary policy is relatively independent and interest rate rises and contraction will be gradual and slow.
【作者單位】： 上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué);上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)國(guó)際金融貿(mào)易學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“非同步經(jīng)濟(jì)周期下宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的國(guó)際協(xié)調(diào)研究”(13BGJ037)和“G20宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策國(guó)際協(xié)調(diào)的功能與中國(guó)角色研究”(15CGJ023)的階段性成果 上海市教育委員會(huì)和上海市教育發(fā)展基金會(huì)“晨光計(jì)劃”(13CG31) 上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)青年英才海外研修計(jì)劃的資助
【分類號(hào)】：F171.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2308833
[Abstract]:Judging by current economic data, the U.S. economy is expected to maintain a weak recovery for the next two years, a gap from the Trump-Economics target of 3 percent GDP growth per year. Macroeconomic policy under the Trump Economics framework will focus on four core areas: trade protection, tax reform, infrastructure strengthening and financial deregulation. This article analyzes the Trump administration's trade policy, fiscal policy, financial regulatory reform policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. It concludes that the Trump administration's trade policy may be conducive to net export growth in the short term, but in the long run, This is an act of incineration against globalization; Restricted by the fiscal deficit and debt ceiling, there is uncertainty about the effect of tax reduction and increasing investment in infrastructure construction on the effect of stimulating economic growth; Deregulation helps boost economic growth by unleashing financial activity, but it can also trigger systemic financial risk. Monetary policy is relatively independent and interest rate rises and contraction will be gradual and slow.
【作者單位】： 上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué);上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)國(guó)際金融貿(mào)易學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“非同步經(jīng)濟(jì)周期下宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的國(guó)際協(xié)調(diào)研究”(13BGJ037)和“G20宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策國(guó)際協(xié)調(diào)的功能與中國(guó)角色研究”(15CGJ023)的階段性成果 上海市教育委員會(huì)和上海市教育發(fā)展基金會(huì)“晨光計(jì)劃”(13CG31) 上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)青年英才海外研修計(jì)劃的資助
【分類號(hào)】：F171.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2308833
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