【摘要】：近年來，我國金融業(yè)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)漸相背離的非協(xié)同發(fā)展趨勢(shì)引起了社會(huì)各界的廣泛關(guān)注，，二者發(fā)展關(guān)系問題逐漸成為了社會(huì)和學(xué)界探討的熱點(diǎn)。 本文采用定量、定性分析法和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)分析法對(duì)我國金融業(yè)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的非協(xié)同發(fā)展關(guān)系進(jìn)行深入的探討。在梳理前期研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上歸納出金融業(yè)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的相關(guān)發(fā)展機(jī)理，并對(duì)近年來二者各自發(fā)展情況和背離關(guān)系進(jìn)行了闡釋。通過協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)，格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)，脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解分析，深入剖析了金融業(yè)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)整體之間的關(guān)系。同時(shí)利用30個(gè)省市的面板數(shù)據(jù)分行業(yè)實(shí)證分析了金融業(yè)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響作用。 結(jié)論表明：金融業(yè)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)存在穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系和單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系，實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)是金融業(yè)的格蘭杰原因，金融業(yè)不是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的格蘭杰原因；實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)金融業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)新息沖擊的反應(yīng)為負(fù)向效應(yīng)，金融業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)新息沖擊的反應(yīng)為正向效應(yīng)；實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的波動(dòng)大部分由自身解釋，金融業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的波動(dòng)有40%左右可以被實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)解釋；實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)有力地推動(dòng)了金融業(yè)發(fā)展，金融業(yè)沒有明顯推動(dòng)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展；與其他宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素相比，銀行業(yè)和證券業(yè)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響作用不顯著，沒有明顯的促進(jìn)作用。最后，本文在對(duì)我國金融業(yè)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)非協(xié)同發(fā)展問題分析的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the trend of non-synergistic development of financial industry and real economy in China has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life, and the relationship between the two has gradually become a hot topic in the social and academic circles. In this paper, quantitative, qualitative and empirical analysis methods are used to study the relationship between financial industry and real economy in China. On the basis of combing the previous research results, this paper sums up the relevant development mechanism of financial industry and real economy, and explains their respective development situation and deviation relationship in recent years. Through cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, the relationship between the financial industry and the real economy as a whole is deeply analyzed. At the same time, using the panel data of 30 provinces and cities, the paper empirically analyzes the effect of financial industry on the development of real economy. The conclusion shows that there is a stable co-integration relationship and one-way Granger causality between the financial industry and the real economy. The real economy is the Granger cause of the financial industry, and the financial industry is not the Granger cause of the real economy. The response of real economic data to financial data innovation is a negative effect, and the response of financial data to real economic data innovation is positive, and the fluctuation of real economic data is mostly explained by itself. About 40% of the fluctuations in the financial sector data can be explained by the real economy; the real economy promotes the development of the financial industry powerfully, and the financial sector does not obviously promote the development of the real economy; compared with other macroeconomic factors, The impact of banking and securities on the real economy is not significant and has no obvious promoting effect. Finally, based on the analysis of the non-coordinated development between the financial industry and the real economy in China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832;F124

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