【摘要】：規(guī)范的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟增長起到某種程度的的促進作用，而經(jīng)濟增長可使人均收入增加，因此引起了人們需求的增加，，從而引起產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的再次調(diào)整和優(yōu)化。河北省作為傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)大省，隨著改革開放的進行與步伐的加快，河北省的經(jīng)濟得到巨大的發(fā)展，其在東部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中扮演著越來越重要的角色。目前對河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與經(jīng)濟增長之間關(guān)系的研究大多停留在定性階段，而進行定量研究則更具有實際意義。因此本文從實證角度出發(fā)，結(jié)合理論與數(shù)據(jù)對河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系進行定性與定量的研究。 本文在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究文獻基礎(chǔ)之上，對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系進行理論分析，基于河北省的實際數(shù)據(jù)，運用ADF單位根對GDP、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗，建立VAR模型，再基于VAR模型進行協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗和模型誤差修正來檢驗和驗證河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與經(jīng)濟增長量之間的關(guān)系，并用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析經(jīng)濟增量對三大產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)值構(gòu)成沖擊的反應(yīng)以及產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)對GDP沖擊的反應(yīng)，同時進行方差分解來評價不同結(jié)構(gòu)沖擊的重要性。最后得出結(jié)論：正常情況下產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和變動都會對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生正反方向的影響，在河北省的環(huán)境下，第二產(chǎn)業(yè)在仍待發(fā)展的此地區(qū)占有巨大，由于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展，第二產(chǎn)業(yè)在河北經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的作用逐漸弱化，但是工業(yè)化程度較高的現(xiàn)實也反映了河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理的現(xiàn)狀。由此，論文從加快農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展，繼續(xù)推動工業(yè)化進程和努力擴大第三產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模幾個方面提出了相關(guān)的政策和建議。本文的創(chuàng)新點為：運用ADF單位根對GDP、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗，建立河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟增長VAR模型。
[Abstract]:The standardized industrial structure can promote the economic growth to some extent, and the economic growth can increase the per capita income, thus causing the increase of people's demand, thus causing the readjustment and optimization of the industrial structure. As a large traditional agricultural province, with the development of reform and opening up, the economy of Hebei Province has been greatly developed, which plays a more and more important role in the economic development of the eastern region. At present, the research on the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province is mostly in the qualitative stage, while the quantitative study is of practical significance. Therefore, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative study on the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province from the perspective of empirical analysis, combined with theory and data. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign related research literature, this paper analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth theoretically. Based on the actual data of Hebei Province, using ADF unit root to test the stability of GDP, industrial structure, the VAR model is established. Based on the VAR model, the co-integration relationship test and model error correction are carried out to test and verify the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province. The impulse response function is used to analyze the response of economic increment to the impact of the three industries and the response of the output structure to the impact of GDP. At the same time, variance decomposition is used to evaluate the importance of different structural shocks. Finally, the conclusion is drawn: under normal circumstances, both industrial structure and changes will have a positive and negative impact on economic growth. In the environment of Hebei Province, the secondary industry occupies a great deal in this area, where the development of the third industry is still pending, because of the vigorous development of the tertiary industry. The role of secondary industry in Hebei's economic development is gradually weakened, but the reality of higher industrialization also reflects the unreasonable present situation of Hebei's industrial structure. Therefore, the paper puts forward some relevant policies and suggestions from several aspects, such as speeding up the development of agriculture, continuing to promote the process of industrialization and striving to expand the scale of the tertiary industry. The innovation of this paper is to use ADF unit root to test the stability of GDP, industrial structure, and to establish the VAR model of Hebei Province's industrial structure and economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F121.3;F127

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