【摘要】：趕超型經(jīng)濟(jì)體在其城鎮(zhèn)化的高速發(fā)展階段,其居民消費(fèi)占GDP比重(居民消費(fèi)率)隨城鎮(zhèn)化率上升而下降。在進(jìn)入城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的成熟階段后,居民消費(fèi)率才隨城鎮(zhèn)化率上升而轉(zhuǎn)降為升。從1984年起,伴隨著城鎮(zhèn)化率的提高,中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率也呈現(xiàn)不升反降的態(tài)勢(shì)。那么,城鎮(zhèn)化率與居民消費(fèi)率之間這種“U型曲線(xiàn)”關(guān)系是否是一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中的一條普遍規(guī)律?是什么因素導(dǎo)致了“U型曲線(xiàn)”關(guān)系的產(chǎn)生?現(xiàn)階段,中國(guó)提高城鎮(zhèn)化率能否成為扭轉(zhuǎn)居民消費(fèi)率持續(xù)下降的一條重要途徑?本文基于城鄉(xiāng)兩部門(mén)模型證明了居民消費(fèi)率與城鎮(zhèn)化率的“U型曲線(xiàn)”關(guān)系；并提出人均收入水平提高、人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化、城鄉(xiāng)收入差距變化、城鎮(zhèn)固定資本形成總額占比的變動(dòng),四者所產(chǎn)生的合力大小與方向造就了城鎮(zhèn)化率與居民消費(fèi)率之間的“U型曲線(xiàn)”關(guān)系。進(jìn)一步,基于187個(gè)國(guó)家及中國(guó)31個(gè)省份面板數(shù)據(jù)所進(jìn)行的實(shí)證分析,驗(yàn)證了“U型曲線(xiàn)”假說(shuō)；通過(guò)建立協(xié)整及誤差修正模型發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率、城鄉(xiāng)收入比、人均收入以及固定資本形成總額占比之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系。本文提出,在現(xiàn)有的城鄉(xiāng)二元體制及政府投資主導(dǎo)的粗放型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展模式下,即便在城鎮(zhèn)化率提高超過(guò)70%之后,中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率依然有可能保持在35%的低水平上。因此,下一階段單純提高中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化率不能扭轉(zhuǎn)居民消費(fèi)率下降的態(tài)勢(shì),必須要把城鎮(zhèn)化放在改革城鄉(xiāng)二元體制、轉(zhuǎn)變城市投資主體、深化市場(chǎng)改革及促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的大框架下。
[Abstract]:In the stage of rapid development of urbanization, the proportion of resident consumption to GDP (resident consumption rate) of catch-up economy decreases with the increase of urbanization rate. After entering the mature stage of urbanization, the consumption rate of residents changes to increase with the increase of urbanization rate. Since 1984, with the increase of urbanization rate, the consumption rate of Chinese residents has been decreasing instead of rising. So, is this "U-shaped curve" relationship between urbanization rate and resident consumption rate a universal rule in a country's economic operation? What is the cause of the "U-curve" relationship? At this stage, will China's urbanization rate become an important way to reverse the continued decline in the consumption rate of residents? Based on the urban and rural two-sector model, this paper proves the "U-shaped curve" relationship between the consumption rate and the urbanization rate, and points out that the income gap between urban and rural areas changes with the increase of per capita income level, the change of population structure, and the change of urban-rural income gap With the change of the proportion of total fixed capital formation in cities and towns, the degree and direction of the resultant force created a "U-curve" relationship between the urbanization rate and the consumption rate of the residents. Furthermore, based on the panel data of 187 countries and 31 provinces in China, the hypothesis of "U-curve" is verified, and the consumption rate and urban-rural income ratio of Chinese residents are found by establishing cointegration and error correction models. There is a long-term stable relationship between per capita income and the proportion of total fixed capital formation. This paper suggests that under the existing urban-rural dual system and the extensive urbanization mode led by government investment, even after the urbanization rate has increased by more than 70%, the consumption rate of Chinese residents is still likely to remain at a low level of 35%. Therefore, raising China's urbanization rate alone in the next stage cannot reverse the decline in the consumption rate of residents. It is necessary to put urbanization in the reform of the urban-rural dual system and to change the main body of urban investment. Deepen market reform and promote industrial structure upgrade under the big frame.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門(mén)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F126.1;F299.21

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