【摘要】：西北地區(qū)正處于工業(yè)化發(fā)展的中期,大量研究表明,這個時期是資源、能源消耗增長加快的時期,生態(tài)破壞、環(huán)境污染、資源短缺成為制約經濟發(fā)展的瓶頸。西北地區(qū)作為欠發(fā)達地區(qū),目前不僅面臨生態(tài)瓶頸,而且肩負全面建成小康社會的重任。如何不走發(fā)達國家“先污染、后治理”的覆轍,如何實現(xiàn)經濟發(fā)展和社會進步,低碳發(fā)展作為一種嶄新的經濟發(fā)展方式和能源消費方式,成為必然選擇。 本文對西北地區(qū)(包括陜西省、甘肅省、寧夏回族自治區(qū)、青海省、新疆維吾爾自治區(qū))1990-2012年間的能源碳排放、人均碳排放等進行測算,應用脫鉤模型,比較碳排放與經濟發(fā)展間的動態(tài)變化關系和趨勢；應用STIRPAT模型、采用嶺回歸分析方法、通過SPSS19.0軟件研究人口、經濟發(fā)展水平、能源強度、能源結構、產業(yè)結構、城市化率等人文因素對能源碳排放的影響,得出各省區(qū)能源碳排放的主要影響因素及貢獻率：剖析和比較西北地區(qū)能源碳排放的影響因素差異,為西北地區(qū)未來低碳經濟發(fā)展提供有針對性的對策和建議。 分析結果表明：1)研究期內,西北地區(qū)經濟逐年增長。脫鉤彈性分析表明,五地大多數(shù)年份彈性系數(shù)大于0,即呈現(xiàn)相對脫鉤或掛鉤狀態(tài),說明碳排放量增長與經濟增長之間存在一定的同步關系。脫鉤指數(shù)分析結果表明,陜西省和甘肅省能源碳排放與經濟增長的關系在疏遠,青海省能源碳排放與經濟增長的關系波動大,寧夏回族自治區(qū)能源碳排放與經濟增長的關系緊密,新疆維吾爾族自治區(qū)能源碳排放與經濟增長的關系有加深趨勢。2)陜西省能源碳排放的顯著影響因素為產業(yè)結構、人口和經濟發(fā)展水平；甘肅省能源碳排放的顯著影響因素為城市化率、經濟發(fā)展水平和產業(yè)結構；寧夏回族自治區(qū)能源碳排放的顯著影響因素為經濟發(fā)展水平、人口和城市化率；青海省能源碳排放的顯著影響因素為人口、經濟發(fā)展水平和城市化率；新疆維吾爾族自治區(qū)能源碳排放的顯著影響因素為經濟發(fā)展水平、城市化率和人口。3)經濟發(fā)展水平是西北地區(qū)共同的主要影響因素,說明西北地區(qū)經濟增長對能源消耗依賴性很強。4)西北五地均未出現(xiàn)(倒“U”型)環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線,未來減排壓力很大。
[Abstract]:Northwest China is in the middle stage of industrialization. A large number of studies show that this period is a period of rapid growth of resources and energy consumption, ecological destruction, environmental pollution and shortage of resources become the bottleneck of restricting economic development. As an underdeveloped region, Northwest China is not only facing ecological bottleneck, but also shouldering the important task of building a well-off society in an all-round way. How to avoid the rut of "pollution first, then harness" in developed countries, how to realize economic development and social progress, and how to develop low-carbon as a new mode of economic development and energy consumption has become an inevitable choice. In this paper, the energy carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in Northwest China (including Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous region, Qinghai Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region) from 1990 to 2012 were calculated, and the decoupling model was applied. Comparing the dynamic relationship and trend between carbon emissions and economic development, using STIRPAT model, using ridge regression analysis method, using SPSS19.0 software to study population, economic development level, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, The influence of human factors such as urbanization rate on energy carbon emission is obtained. The main influencing factors and contribution rate of energy carbon emission in provinces and regions are analyzed and compared, and the difference of influencing factors of energy carbon emission in Northwest China is analyzed and compared. To provide countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of low carbon economy in Northwest China. The results show that during the period of study, the economy of Northwest China has been increasing year by year. The analysis of decoupling elasticity shows that the elastic coefficient is greater than 0 in most years in the five regions, that is, the relative decoupling or hook state, which indicates that there is a certain synchronous relationship between the growth of carbon emissions and economic growth. The results of decoupling index analysis show that the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces is estranged, and the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Qinghai Province fluctuates greatly. The relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region is close, and the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region has a deepening trend .2) the significant influence factor of energy carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province is the industrial structure. The significant influencing factors of energy carbon emission in Gansu Province are urbanization rate, economic development level and industrial structure, and the significant influence factors of energy carbon emission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region are economic development level. Population and urbanization rate; significant influence factors of energy and carbon emission in Qinghai Province are population, economic development level and urbanization rate; significant influence factors of energy carbon emission in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region are economic development level, Urbanization rate and population (.3) level of economic development are the common main influencing factors in Northwest China, which indicates that the economic growth in Northwest China is highly dependent on energy consumption. 4) the environmental Kuznets curve (inverted "U" type) has not appeared in the five regions of Northwest China. The pressure to reduce emissions in the future is great.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X24;F124

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 金涌;王W，

本文編號：2188205