本文選題：環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì) + 協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展��； 參考：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展取得了舉世矚目的成就，但由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)建立在高消耗、高污染的傳統(tǒng)發(fā)展模式上，我國(guó)出現(xiàn)了比較嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染和生態(tài)破壞，使環(huán)境保護(hù)面臨的壓力越來(lái)越大。河南省是中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的主體，能源緊缺、資源供應(yīng)不足、環(huán)境壓力加大已經(jīng)成為制約其經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)持續(xù)快速發(fā)展的重要因素。在面臨資源、環(huán)境、生態(tài)等新問(wèn)題、新挑戰(zhàn)、新要求的形勢(shì)下，傳統(tǒng)的資源型、污染型產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展模式已經(jīng)不適應(yīng)發(fā)展需要，選擇出適合環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的路徑更具有迫切的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 基于上述背景，本文綜合運(yùn)用協(xié)同學(xué)、系統(tǒng)演化論、系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)等理論，對(duì)河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行機(jī)理、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展路徑及預(yù)警幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了研究。論文的研究?jī)?nèi)容主要分為四個(gè)部分：（1）在協(xié)同學(xué)理論、系統(tǒng)演化理論的基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展動(dòng)態(tài)耦合評(píng)價(jià)模型，并對(duì)河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)態(tài)耦合演化過(guò)程和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)分析；（2）通過(guò)分析河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行機(jī)理，，構(gòu)建環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力模型，對(duì)該系統(tǒng)基本行為進(jìn)行仿真及政策調(diào)控設(shè)計(jì)；（3）設(shè)計(jì)三個(gè)類型（經(jīng)濟(jì)高效型、環(huán)境保護(hù)型、環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)型）12種發(fā)展仿真方案，并運(yùn)用DEA模型和協(xié)調(diào)度評(píng)價(jià)模型對(duì)不同環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方案進(jìn)行優(yōu)化評(píng)價(jià)，選擇出適合河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的發(fā)展路徑；（4）在環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建基于PSR模型的河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)警體系，運(yùn)用云模型和綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)不同發(fā)展方案下的河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展進(jìn)行預(yù)警和動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)。 研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：（1）1990-2012年期間，河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展經(jīng)歷了螺旋上升的過(guò)程，環(huán)境系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)由從低級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)，共生發(fā)展階段，到環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)兩個(gè)序參量相互脅迫，相互作用直到系統(tǒng)演化至新的發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)。現(xiàn)階段河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)基本處于中度協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的狀態(tài)，可以通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)手段、環(huán)境政策等外部條件的調(diào)節(jié)和干預(yù)，影響經(jīng)濟(jì)序參量和環(huán)境序參量的演化速度及兩者之間相互作用關(guān)系，推進(jìn)環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)繼續(xù)向有序的方向演化。 (2)從影響河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的主要因素著手，簡(jiǎn)化環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)，建立了環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真模型。通過(guò)對(duì)河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)基本行為仿真分析，現(xiàn)有以發(fā)展第二產(chǎn)業(yè)，主要是發(fā)展工業(yè)為主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，雖然會(huì)帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)，但最終會(huì)造成環(huán)境污染存量的激增，促使環(huán)境的進(jìn)一步惡化； （3）通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析法（DEA）對(duì)13個(gè)發(fā)展方案（12個(gè)仿真方案和1個(gè)現(xiàn)行方案）的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)效率進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，從DEA評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果看，環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)效率DEA有效的方案是H-J-4，H-J-5，H-1，H-2和H-3。鑒于DEA有效的決策單元并非1個(gè)，本文又通過(guò)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度評(píng)價(jià)模型對(duì)DEA有效的仿真方案進(jìn)行了二次評(píng)價(jià)，結(jié)果表明在方案H-J-4和H-J-5的發(fā)展模式下，河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)在仿真區(qū)間的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展程度均達(dá)到了中級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。因此，發(fā)展方案H-J-4和H-J-5可以作為制定河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展路徑和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的參考依據(jù)。 (4)在建立環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建了基于PSR模型的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，并對(duì)現(xiàn)行方案、環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)方案4和方案5三種發(fā)展模式下的河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了預(yù)警仿真，研究結(jié)果表明： 1）河南省在現(xiàn)行的發(fā)展方案下，在2005-2030仿真區(qū)間內(nèi)，環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的警情總體是趨于下降趨勢(shì)的。其中2005-2011年，河南省的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展處于重警區(qū)，2012年轉(zhuǎn)入了中警區(qū)，并于2023年跨越了輕警區(qū)（黃燈區(qū)），進(jìn)入了預(yù)警區(qū)（藍(lán)燈區(qū)），環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的警情逐漸消除； 2）在方案H-J-4的發(fā)展模式下，在仿真區(qū)間內(nèi)，2005-2009年，河南省的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展處于重警區(qū)，2010年轉(zhuǎn)入中警區(qū)，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速，環(huán)保投資的規(guī)模逐漸增大，復(fù)合系統(tǒng)的警情于2013年開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)入輕警區(qū)，2021年河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)跨越了輕警區(qū)（黃燈區(qū)），進(jìn)入了預(yù)警區(qū)（藍(lán)燈區(qū)）。 3）在方案H-J-5的發(fā)展模式下，在仿真區(qū)間內(nèi)，2005-2008年，河南省的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展處于重警區(qū)，于2009年轉(zhuǎn)入中警區(qū)，由于方案H-J-5以第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展為主，環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)合系統(tǒng)的警情比方案H-J-4提前一年開(kāi)始進(jìn)入輕警區(qū)，隨著環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況的不斷改善，2020年河南省環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)跨越了輕警區(qū)（黃燈區(qū)），進(jìn)入了預(yù)警區(qū)（藍(lán)燈區(qū)），比方案H-J-4提前一年進(jìn)入環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展階段。
[Abstract]:The economic and social development of our country has made remarkable achievements. However, due to the traditional development model of high consumption and high pollution, the serious environmental pollution and ecological destruction have appeared in China, and the pressure of environmental protection is becoming more and more serious. Henan is the main body of the Central Economic Zone, the energy shortage and the shortage of resources, Increasing environmental pressure has become an important factor restricting the sustainable and rapid economic and social development. Under the situation of resources, environment, ecology and other new problems, new challenges and new requirements, the traditional resource type and pollution industry development model has not adapted to the development needs, and it is more urgent to choose the suitable path for the coordinated development of the environment and economy. Practical significance.
Based on the above background, this paper comprehensively uses the theory of synergetics, system evolution theory and system dynamics to study the coordinated development of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province, the operating mechanism of the environmental economic system, the path of coordinated development and the early warning. The research content of this thesis is divided into four parts: (1) the theory of synergetics, On the basis of system evolution theory, the dynamic coupling evaluation model of environmental and economic coordinated development is constructed, and the dynamic coupling evolution process and coordinated development status of environmental economy in Henan province are evaluated and analyzed. (2) through the analysis of the operating mechanism of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province, the dynamic model of the environmental economic system is constructed, and the basic behavior of the system is established. The simulation and policy control design are carried out; (3) 12 kinds of development simulation schemes are designed for three types (economic efficiency, environmental protection, environment economy coordination), and the DEA model and coordination degree evaluation model are used to optimize the different environmental economic development schemes, and the development path of coordinated development of environmental and economic development in Henan province is selected. (4 On the basis of the dynamic model of the environmental and economic system, the early warning system of environmental economy in Henan Province Based on the PSR model is constructed. Using the cloud model and the comprehensive evaluation method, the early warning and dynamic prediction of the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province under different development schemes are carried out.
The results are as follows: (1) during the 1990-2012 year period, the coordinated development of the environmental and economic system in Henan has undergone a spiral process, and the environmental and economic systems are from low level coordination, symbiotic development, and two order parameters of environment and economy are coercive to each other, and the interaction between the environment and the economy has evolved into a new state of development. At the present stage of Henan Province The environment economy is basically in the state of moderate and coordinated development, which can be adjusted and intervened through the external conditions such as economic means and environmental policy, which affect the evolution speed of economic order parameters and environmental order parameters and the interaction relationship between them, and promote the environmental and economic system to continue to evolve in the direction of order.
(2) from the main factors that affect the coordinated development of environmental and economic development in Henan Province, the environmental economic system is simplified and the system dynamics simulation model of the coordinated development of the environmental and economic system is established. Through the simulation and analysis of the basic behavior of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province, the existing economic policy is the development of the second industry, mainly the development of industry. Although it will bring about rapid economic growth, it will eventually lead to a sharp increase in the stock of environmental pollution and further deterioration of the environment.
(3) to evaluate the environmental economic efficiency of 13 development schemes (12 simulation schemes and 1 existing schemes) by data envelopment analysis (DEA). From the results of the DEA evaluation, the effective solutions of the environmental economic efficiency DEA are H-J-4, H-J-5, H-1, H-2 and H-3., which are not 1 in view of the effective decision unit of DEA. This paper also adopts a coordinated development degree evaluation model. Two evaluations are carried out on the effective simulation scheme of DEA. The results show that under the development mode of H-J-4 and H-J-5, the coordinated development degree of the environment economy in Henan province has reached the intermediate coordinated development in the simulation interval. Therefore, the development scheme H-J-4 and H-J-5 can be used to formulate the development path and the coordinated development strategy of the environment and economy in Henan province. Reference basis.
(4) on the basis of establishing the dynamic model of the environmental and economic system, the environmental economy early-warning index system based on the PSR model is constructed, and the early warning simulation of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province under the current scheme, the environment economic coordination scheme 4 and the scheme 5 of the three development modes is carried out. The results show that:
1) in Henan Province, under the current development program, the police situation in the environmental and economic system tends to decline in the 2005-2030 simulation area. In 2005-2011 years, the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan is in the heavy police area, in 2012, it was transferred to the Central Police District, and in 2023, it crossed the light police area (yellow light area) and entered the early warning area (blue light area). The police situation of the environmental and economic system has been gradually eliminated.
2) under the development model of the program H-J-4, in the simulation interval, in the 2005-2009 year, the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan is in the heavy police area. In 2010, the economic development of the complex system was gradually increased. The police situation of the compound system was transferred to the light police area in 2013, and the environmental and economic system of Henan Province in 2021 was leapfrog. The light police area (yellow light district) has entered the warning area (blue light district).
3) under the development mode of the program H-J-5, in the simulation interval, in the 2005-2008 year, the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan was in the heavy police area. In 2009, it was transferred to the Central Police area. As the scheme H-J-5 was the main industry of the third industry, the police situation of the environmental economic complex system began to enter the light police area one year earlier than the scheme H-J-4, with the environmental and economic development. In 2020, the environmental and economic system of Henan province leaped across the light police area (yellow light area) and entered the early warning area (blue light area), and entered the coordinated development stage of the environment and economy one year ahead of schedule H-J-4.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F205

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