本文選題：進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 + 典型相關(guān)分析�。� 參考：《曲阜師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易亦稱國外貿(mào)易或?qū)ν赓Q(mào)易,是指一個(gè)國家或地區(qū)與另一個(gè)國家或地區(qū)之間的商品、勞務(wù)和技術(shù)的交換活動(dòng).山東省作為一個(gè)貿(mào)易大省,在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的趨勢(shì)中,憑借其優(yōu)越的地理位置,在對(duì)外貿(mào)易合作中取得了明顯的成果.如何使對(duì)外貿(mào)易進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)山東省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展成為當(dāng)務(wù)之急.本文主要選取山東省28年以來的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),采用典型相關(guān)分析、單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)等方法對(duì)山東省經(jīng)濟(jì)和對(duì)外貿(mào)易進(jìn)行研究,并且根據(jù)貿(mào)易額和山東省GDP建立誤差修正模型.在分析山東省的貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀方面,本文根據(jù)歷年數(shù)據(jù),發(fā)現(xiàn)在2009年之前,貿(mào)易額保持增長(zhǎng),由于次貸危機(jī)的影響,貿(mào)易額在2009年出現(xiàn)明顯的下降,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的出臺(tái)使得貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)速度有所增加.根據(jù)各個(gè)地區(qū)的餅圖可以發(fā)現(xiàn)山東省各個(gè)地區(qū)的貿(mào)易發(fā)展極不平衡,尤其是半島地區(qū)的貿(mào)易比重高達(dá)77.6%,但是魯西地區(qū)的貿(mào)易比重僅為3.35%.另一方面也說明各個(gè)地區(qū)的貿(mào)易還有很大的發(fā)展空間.在方法研究方面,首先,利用典型相關(guān)分析,研究四大貿(mào)易方式與三大產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的關(guān)系,得出一般貿(mào)易對(duì)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的作用最大;然后,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和總貿(mào)易額、進(jìn)口貿(mào)易額、出口貿(mào)易額進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn),得出雖然四者都為非平穩(wěn)序列,但是進(jìn)行二階差分之后,差分序列均為平穩(wěn)序列;其次,為了消除偽回歸,上述變量進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)GDP與總貿(mào)易額、進(jìn)口貿(mào)易額、出口貿(mào)易額存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,即長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系;最后,為了反應(yīng)短期波動(dòng)關(guān)系,建立誤差修正模型.針對(duì)這些研究結(jié)果,本文就貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系提出了相應(yīng)的措施.
[Abstract]:Import and export trade, also known as foreign trade or foreign trade, refers to the exchange of goods, services and technologies between one country or region and another. As a big trade province, Shandong Province has made remarkable achievements in foreign trade cooperation with its superior geographical position in the trend of economic globalization. How to make foreign trade further promote the economic development of Shandong Province has become a top priority. This paper mainly selects the economic data of Shandong Province for 28 years, uses the methods of canonical correlation analysis, unit root test and cointegration test to study Shandong's economy and foreign trade. And according to the volume of trade and Shandong Province GDP error correction model is established. In the analysis of the current situation of trade in Shandong Province, according to the data of the past years, we find that the volume of trade has maintained growth before 2009, because of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the volume of trade in 2009 has shown a significant decline. With the introduction of economic policies, the growth rate of trade volume has increased. According to the pie chart of each region, it can be found that the trade development of each region in Shandong Province is very unbalanced, especially in the Peninsula area, the proportion of trade is as high as 77.6, but the proportion of trade in the west of Shandong is only 3.35. On the other hand, it also shows that there is still a lot of room for development of trade in various regions. In the aspect of method research, firstly, by using canonical correlation analysis, we study the relationship between the four major trade modes and the three major industries, and draw the conclusion that the general trade plays the most important role in the tertiary industry; then, to the economy and the total trade volume, the import trade volume, The unit root test of export trade volume shows that although all the four are non-stationary series, the difference sequences are all stationary after the second order difference. Secondly, in order to eliminate the pseudo-regression, the above variables are cointegrated test. It is found that there is a cointegration relationship between GDP and total trade volume, import trade volume and export trade volume, that is, long-term equilibrium relationship. Finally, in order to reflect the short-term fluctuation relationship, an error correction model is established. In view of these results, this paper puts forward the corresponding measures on the relationship between trade and economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：曲阜師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.8;F127

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本文編號(hào)：1988971