本文選題：電力消費(fèi) + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)��； 參考：《北京化工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力是社會(huì)生產(chǎn)和人們?nèi)粘Ｉ畹闹匾度肫泛捅匦杵?同時(shí)也是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會(huì)進(jìn)步的重要基礎(chǔ)。電力的短缺會(huì)影響國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)各行業(yè)的正常運(yùn)行,最終影響國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值增長(zhǎng)�；诖�,本文研究了北京電力消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,旨在為北京地區(qū)電力政策的制定提供依據(jù)。 本文以北京市1978-2012年實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,分析了該段時(shí)期首都的電力消費(fèi)情況,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)狀況,以及各產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)情況；建立了灰色動(dòng)態(tài)模型研究北京電力消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的周期波動(dòng)規(guī)律,旨在揭示二者的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系；同時(shí)從產(chǎn)業(yè)角度出發(fā),運(yùn)用關(guān)聯(lián)度模型分析了二者的關(guān)聯(lián)度。 研究結(jié)果顯示：北京市的電力消費(fèi)波動(dòng)總是領(lǐng)先于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)波動(dòng)。對(duì)所求得的綜合關(guān)聯(lián)度進(jìn)行排序,結(jié)果表明：①生活用電對(duì)北京全社會(huì)用電量影響程度和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)較大；②工業(yè)對(duì)電力消費(fèi)影響程度較高,對(duì)GDP貢獻(xiàn)率很低；③農(nóng)林牧漁水利業(yè)對(duì)電力消費(fèi)影響程度和對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)介于二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)間；④批發(fā)零售貿(mào)易、餐飲住宿對(duì)電力消費(fèi)影響較低,對(duì)GDP貢獻(xiàn)位于工業(yè)之前；交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)郵電通訊對(duì)GDP貢獻(xiàn)和對(duì)電力消費(fèi)的影響均很小。建議優(yōu)化第三產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),控制第二產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,適當(dāng)發(fā)展第一產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:Electric power is not only an important input and necessity of social production and people's daily life, but also an important foundation for the development of national economy and social progress. The shortage of electric power will affect the normal operation of various industries of the national economy and ultimately affect the growth of the national economic output value. Based on this, this paper studies the internal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Beijing, in order to provide the basis for the formulation of power policy in Beijing. Taking the actual data of Beijing from 1978 to 2012 as a sample, this paper analyzes the electricity consumption, economic growth and structural changes of various industries in the capital during this period. This paper establishes a grey dynamic model to study the periodic fluctuation law of Beijing electric power consumption and economic growth in order to reveal the internal relationship between the two and analyzes their correlation degree by using the correlation degree model from the angle of industry. The results show that the fluctuation of electricity consumption in Beijing is always ahead of the fluctuation of economic growth. The result shows that the power consumption of the whole society in Beijing is affected by the power consumption of 1: 1, and the industrial industry has a higher degree of influence on the electricity consumption and a low contribution to the GDP. (3) the influence of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy industry on electricity consumption and its contribution to GDP are between the second and third industries, while the impact of catering and accommodation on electricity consumption is low, and the contribution to GDP is in front of industry. Storage posts and telecommunications to the GDP contribution and the impact on electricity consumption are very small. It is suggested to optimize the structure of the tertiary industry, control the development of the secondary industry, and develop the primary industry appropriately.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京化工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;F127

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本文編號(hào)：1982049