本文選題：匯率變動 + 產業(yè)結構　； 參考：《廣東外語外貿大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：匯率作為宏觀經濟體系中重要的價格變量,對外影響各國之間的經濟平衡,對內影響國內資源的分配、產業(yè)結構的整合和升級,是調節(jié)國民經濟內外均衡的杠桿。在全球經濟一體化與產業(yè)區(qū)間轉移的大背景下,廣東省位于中國對外經濟開放的前沿地區(qū),其產業(yè)結構也必將面臨匯率變動等外部環(huán)境影響背景下的進一步的發(fā)展。本文以人民幣實際有效匯率等因素對二、三次產業(yè)結構調整的影響為研究對象,利用2005-2015年21個廣東省地級市地區(qū)的面板數(shù)據(jù),從廣東省以及省各區(qū)包括珠三角、粵東、粵西、粵北地區(qū)層面做了實證研究,系統(tǒng)地采用面板單位根檢驗、面板協(xié)整檢驗和固定效應估計法對人民幣匯率與廣東省及珠三角、粵東、粵西、粵北地區(qū)層面二、三次產業(yè)結構的關系進行了檢驗,得出以下結論:從匯率對不同產業(yè)的影響來看,人民幣實際有效匯率與廣東省及各地區(qū)第二產業(yè)比重均具有的負相關關系,對第三產業(yè)比重均具有的正相關關系,除粵東均表現(xiàn)顯著。具體而言人民幣實際有效匯率每升值1%,使得全省及珠三角、粵東、粵西、粵北地區(qū)第二產業(yè)比重分別下降0.381%、0.403%、0.068%、0.431%、0.545%;對各區(qū)域第三產業(yè)比重分別提升0.263%、0.311%、0.081%、0.433%、0.424%。人均收入的提高對廣東省及珠三角、粵東、粵北地區(qū)第二產業(yè)比重具有抑制作用,對第三產業(yè)的比重則具有促進作用;而對于粵西地區(qū)而言則表現(xiàn)為相反。而人口數(shù)量增加對廣東省及珠三角、粵東第二產業(yè)的比重具有抑制作用,對第三產業(yè)的比重則具有顯著促進作用。而對于粵西、粵北地區(qū)而言則表現(xiàn)為相反,也并沒有通過顯著性檢驗。就對外經濟開放度而言,對外經濟開放度的提高使得全省及珠三角、粵西、粵北地區(qū)第二產業(yè)比重下降,第三產業(yè)比重上升,對于粵東第二、三產業(yè)比重則有著相反作用,全省和粵東、粵西均通過顯著性檢驗。FDI對廣東省及珠三角、粵東、粵西、粵北的第二產業(yè)的比重具有比較顯著的抑制作用,而對第三產業(yè)結構具有促進作用,且均通過顯著性檢驗。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate, as an important price variable in the macroeconomic system, affects the economic balance among countries, the internal distribution of domestic resources, the integration and upgrading of industrial structure, and is the lever to regulate the internal and external equilibrium of the national economy. Under the background of global economic integration and industrial interval transfer, Guangdong Province is located in the frontier area of China's foreign economic opening, and its industrial structure is bound to face further development under the background of external environment such as exchange rate change. This paper takes the real effective exchange rate of RMB and other factors as the research object, using the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2005 to 2015 to study the impact of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the second and third industrial restructuring, from Guangdong Province and other provinces including the Pearl River Delta, East Guangdong, Western Guangdong. The empirical study on the regional level of northern Guangdong Province is carried out, and the panel unit root test, panel cointegration test and fixed effect estimation method are systematically used to study the RMB exchange rate in Guangdong Province and the Pearl River Delta, East Guangdong, Western Guangdong, and Northern Guangdong. The third industrial structure is tested, and the following conclusions are drawn: from the impact of exchange rate on different industries, there is a negative correlation between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the proportion of secondary industry in Guangdong Province and other regions. There is a positive correlation to the proportion of tertiary industry except in eastern Guangdong. To be more specific, the actual effective exchange rate of RMB increases by 1%, making the second industry proportion of the whole province and the Pearl River Delta, eastern Guangdong, western Guangdong, and northern Guangdong drop by 0.3810.403N 0.0688.The proportion of the tertiary industry in each region is increased by 0.26310.3110.3110.0810.43333 and 0.42445, respectively. The increase of per capita income can inhibit the proportion of secondary industry and promote the proportion of tertiary industry in Guangdong and Pearl River Delta, eastern Guangdong and northern Guangdong, but the opposite is true for western Guangdong. The increase of population can inhibit the proportion of secondary industry and promote the proportion of tertiary industry in Guangdong and Pearl River Delta. For western Guangdong, northern Guangdong is the opposite, and has not passed the significance test. As far as the degree of foreign economic openness is concerned, the increase in the degree of foreign economic openness has led to a decrease in the proportion of secondary industries and an increase in the proportion of tertiary industries in the whole province and in the Pearl River Delta, western Guangdong, and northern Guangdong regions, which has the opposite effect on the proportion of the second and third industries in eastern Guangdong. Through the significance test, FDI has a significant inhibitory effect on the proportion of secondary industry in Guangdong and Pearl River Delta, eastern Guangdong, western Guangdong and northern Guangdong, but promotes the structure of the tertiary industry. All of them passed the significance test.
【學位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F121.3

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