本文選題：技術(shù)進步 + 全要素生產(chǎn)率�。� 參考：《數(shù)量經(jīng)濟技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究》2017年07期

【摘要】：研究目標:更準確地估算我國的技術(shù)進步率、TFP增長率及其對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率。研究方法:以經(jīng)濟增長理論為基礎(chǔ),利用AMOS軟件,構(gòu)建以技術(shù)進步率和人均資本增長率為潛變量的多指標多原因結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型(MIMIC Model)。利用MCMC貝葉斯法估計模型參數(shù),最后用貝葉斯插補法估算兩個潛變量。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):利用新方法估算出的技術(shù)進步率更加合理,新方法也顯示出了技術(shù)進步與其他經(jīng)濟變量之間更為明確的作用機制。研究創(chuàng)新:首次利用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型(SEM)估算中國技術(shù)進步率。研究價值:為SEM模型在經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域中的應(yīng)用提供了規(guī)范。
[Abstract]:Objective: to estimate more accurately the TFP growth rate and its contribution to economic growth in China. Methods: based on the theory of economic growth and using AMOS software, a multi-index and multi-reason structural equation model with technological progress rate and per capita capital growth rate as potential variables was constructed. The model parameters are estimated by MCMC Bayesian method and two latent variables are estimated by Bayesian interpolation method. It is found that the rate of technological progress estimated by the new method is more reasonable, and the new method also shows a clearer mechanism between technological progress and other economic variables. Research Innovation: for the first time, the structural equation model (SEM) is used to estimate the rate of technological progress in China. Research value: provides the standard for the application of SEM model in the economic field.
【作者單位】： 北京交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：北京交通大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費“對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟中不可觀測變量的新研究”(B15JB00230)的資助
【分類號】：F124.3;F224.0

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