本文選題：國家自主貢獻 + 過程技術(shù)進步　； 參考：《中國科技論壇》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文采用集成評估模型CIECIA,以提高研發(fā)投資、增加知識資本存量,進而驅(qū)動過程技術(shù)進步的方式實現(xiàn)了包括低碳節(jié)能技術(shù)進步在內(nèi)的過程技術(shù)進步的內(nèi)生化,通過設(shè)置不同的研發(fā)投資情景,模擬了研發(fā)投資率的提高對各國經(jīng)濟增長和碳排放的影響,對其實現(xiàn)國家自主貢獻(INDC)目標(biāo)和全球氣候保護目標(biāo)的有效性進行了評估。結(jié)果顯示:中國、俄羅斯、印度和除美國、歐盟外的發(fā)達國家可通過提高研發(fā)投資率實現(xiàn)INDC目標(biāo),而占未來全球碳排放量50%以上的眾多發(fā)展中國家無法通過提高自主技術(shù)創(chuàng)新速度實現(xiàn)INDC目標(biāo),進而導(dǎo)致研發(fā)投資情景無法實現(xiàn)全球2100年升溫控制目標(biāo)。但是,研發(fā)投資措施促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,從碳治理角度出發(fā),可與經(jīng)濟損害型減排措施集成,提高碳減排政策的可行性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the integrated evaluation model CIECIA is used to improve R & D investment, increase knowledge capital stock, and then realize the endogenous process technology progress, including low-carbon energy-saving technology progress, in the way of driving process technology progress. By setting up different R & D investment scenarios, the effects of increasing R & D investment rate on the economic growth and carbon emissions of each country are simulated, and its effectiveness in achieving the goal of national independent contribution (INDC) and global climate protection is evaluated. The results show that China, Russia, India and developed countries other than the United States and the European Union can achieve INDC targets by increasing R & D investment rates. However, many developing countries, which account for more than 50% of the global carbon emissions in the future, can not achieve the INDC target by improving the speed of independent technological innovation, which leads to the failure of R & D investment scenarios to achieve the global warming control target of 2100. However, R & D investment measures can promote economic development, from the perspective of carbon control, can be integrated with economic damage reduction measures to improve the feasibility of carbon emission reduction policy.
【作者單位】： 華東師范大學(xué)人口研究所;中國科學(xué)院科技政策與管理科學(xué)研究所;華東師范大學(xué)地理信息科學(xué)教育部重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家重大研究計劃(973)項目“氣候變化經(jīng)濟過程的復(fù)雜性機制、新型集成評估模型簇與政策模擬平臺研發(fā)”(2012CB955800) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“全球經(jīng)濟一體化作用下中國應(yīng)對氣候變化的區(qū)域碳治理研究”(41501130)
【分類號】：F113.2;X32

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