發(fā)布時間：2018-04-20 19:08

  本文選題：價格自循環(huán) + 投入產(chǎn)出網(wǎng)絡(luò)��； 參考：《中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年08期

【摘要】：2002年以來中國上游行業(yè)的價格水平大幅度波動,需求側(cè)層面的外部沖擊是引起上游行業(yè)價格波動的重要原因,那么,來自供給側(cè)層面的因素又在上游行業(yè)的價格波動中起到何種作用呢?本文基于投入產(chǎn)出網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建了包含多個生產(chǎn)部門在內(nèi)的動態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),上游行業(yè)內(nèi)部存在較強(qiáng)的"價格自循環(huán)"效應(yīng),"價格自循環(huán)"效應(yīng)起到了放大器的作用,使得上游行業(yè)的整體價格水平對沖擊的反應(yīng)更加敏感。此外,上游行業(yè)擁有較強(qiáng)的市場勢力。較強(qiáng)的市場勢力與"價格自循環(huán)"效應(yīng)相互疊加,進(jìn)一步放大了上游行業(yè)價格對外部沖擊的敏感程度,造成上游行業(yè)價格大起大落。價格的大起大落容易扭曲資源配置并對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生一系列負(fù)面影響。因此,在供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的背景下,政府通過清理過剩產(chǎn)能、市場退出等形式實(shí)現(xiàn)改革目標(biāo)的同時,應(yīng)當(dāng)更加關(guān)注上游行業(yè)內(nèi)部的市場勢力變動,切實(shí)引入有效的競爭機(jī)制,防止上游行業(yè)市場勢力重新增長,防止其與"價格自循環(huán)"效應(yīng)重新疊加造成價格大幅波動,避免供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革成果遭到破壞。同時,在應(yīng)對價格波動方面,政府也應(yīng)注重對供給側(cè)的調(diào)節(jié),弱化"價格自循環(huán)"效應(yīng)可能帶來的不利影響。
[Abstract]:Since 2002, the price level of China's upstream industry has fluctuated substantially, and the external shock on the demand side is an important reason for the price fluctuation in the upstream industry. What role do supply-side factors play in price volatility in upstream industries? Based on the input-output network, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including multiple production departments. It is found that there is a strong "price self-circulation" effect in the upstream industry, and the "price self-circulation" effect acts as an amplifier, which makes the overall price level of the upstream industry more sensitive to the shock response. In addition, the upstream industry has a strong market power. The strong market power and the "price self-circulation" effect superimpose each other, further amplifying the sensitivity of upstream industry price to the external shock, causing the upstream industry price to fluctuate greatly. Ups and downs of prices tend to distort resource allocation and have a series of negative effects on the economy. Therefore, in the context of supply-side structural reform, the government should pay more attention to the changes of market forces in upstream industries and introduce an effective competition mechanism, while realizing the reform objectives by cleaning up excess capacity and withdrawing from the market. Prevent the upstream industry market power from growing again, prevent it and "price self-cycle" effect to cause the price to fluctuate sharply again, avoid the supply-side structural reform result to be destroyed. At the same time, in dealing with price fluctuations, the government should pay attention to the regulation of the supply side and weaken the possible adverse effects of the "price self-circulation" effect.
【作者單位】： 東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會發(fā)展研究院;東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)財政稅務(wù)學(xué)院;中國人民銀行張掖市中心支行;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金重大項目“推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口市民化:路徑選擇、財力保障與地方政府激勵研究”(批準(zhǔn)號14ZDA032)
【分類號】：F121;F726

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