本文選題：電力消費(fèi)　切入點(diǎn)：GDP　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：云南省具有豐富的水力資源和面向南方的完善電網(wǎng)網(wǎng)絡(luò),是電力生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)和外調(diào)的大省,也是老撾向中國(guó)出口電力的重要通道。在此背景下,深入研究云南省電力消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,對(duì)云南省電力消費(fèi)彈性系數(shù)的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,探討云南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)電力消費(fèi)的影響,對(duì)云南省電力消費(fèi)進(jìn)行短、長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè),根據(jù)研究結(jié)果對(duì)云南省電力發(fā)展提出可供參考的意見和建議,這對(duì)云南省電力產(chǎn)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 在第二章中,利用協(xié)整模型和Granger因果檢驗(yàn)方法,對(duì)云南省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與電力消費(fèi)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,研究結(jié)果表明：電力消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在著長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系,電力消費(fèi)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的單向格蘭杰原因,電力消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有共同的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。 在第三章中,利用多元回歸模型,對(duì)云南省電力消費(fèi)彈性系數(shù)的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,分析結(jié)果表明：電力利用效率和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP的比重是影響電力彈性系數(shù)的主要因素,電力利用效率對(duì)電力彈性是正向影響,而第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的占比對(duì)電力彈性是負(fù)向影響,居民用電的影響不大。 在第四章中,利用灰度理論,分析了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與電力消費(fèi)的關(guān)聯(lián)度以及貢獻(xiàn)度,分析結(jié)果表明：第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)、居民生活用電與電力消費(fèi)之間存在著高度的關(guān)聯(lián)性,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的增加值、就業(yè)人數(shù)、固定資產(chǎn)投資對(duì)電力消費(fèi)的貢獻(xiàn)度最大,且明顯比其他產(chǎn)業(yè)大。 在第五章中,利用GM(1,1)模型對(duì)云南省電力消費(fèi)進(jìn)行短期預(yù)測(cè),根據(jù)組合預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)云南省電力消費(fèi)進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明：GM(1,1)模型比較適合進(jìn)行短期預(yù)測(cè),而組合模型對(duì)長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)的效果較為理想。 最后,根據(jù)研究結(jié)果提出了云南省電力產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的對(duì)策和建議。
[Abstract]:Yunnan province has abundant water resources and improve the network oriented to the south, is the electric power production, consumption and transfer of the province, but also an important channel to China. Laos export power under this background, the study of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic development in Yunnan Province, the influence factors of Yunnan Province's electricity consumption elasticity coefficient analysis on influence of industrial structure in Yunnan Province on the electricity consumption, electricity consumption of Yunnan province are short and long-term forecast, according to the research results and puts forward some advice and suggestions for the development of electric power in Yunnan Province, has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development of electric power industry in Yunnan province.
In the second chapter, by using the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test method, the relationship between the economic growth of Yunnan province and power consumption for the empirical research, the results show that: there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, electricity consumption is one-way Grainger the cause of economic growth, with the common trends of power consumption and the economic growth.
In the third chapter, using multiple regression model, the influence factors of Yunnan province electricity consumption elasticity coefficient is analyzed, analysis results show that the power efficiency and the proportion of the second industry in GDP are the main factors influencing the elastic coefficient of electricity, electricity use efficiency is a positive influence on the power play, and the second industries accounted for the ratio of power the elasticity is negative, the electricity is not affected.
In the fourth chapter, using the gray theory, analyzes the industrial structure and the power consumption of the correlation degree and contribution degree, analysis results show that: the second industry, the third industry, living high correlation between electricity consumption and electricity consumption, industrial added value of second, the number of employment, the contribution of investment in fixed assets of power consumption is the biggest, and significantly more than other industries.
In the fifth chapter, the use of GM (1,1) model to predict the power consumption in Yunnan Province, according to the combination forecasting model for long-term prediction of power consumption in Yunnan Province, the prediction results show that: GM (1,1) model is more suitable for short-term forecasting, and the combination of the ideal model to predict the long-term effect.
Finally, according to the results of the study, the countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable development of Yunnan electric power industry are put forward.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F426.61;F224

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