本文選題：可計(jì)算一般均衡微觀模擬　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　出處：《華中科技大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)取得了巨大的成就。但隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)發(fā)展,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也暴露出越來(lái)越多問(wèn)題,如發(fā)展中不可持續(xù)問(wèn)題依然突出,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理,資源環(huán)境約束加劇,收入分配差距依然較大,居民收入增長(zhǎng)速度過(guò)慢。這些問(wèn)題都阻礙著我國(guó)全面建成小康社會(huì),構(gòu)建社會(huì)主義和諧社會(huì)。這要求政府在保證經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)的前提下注重資源保護(hù)、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、減少貧困和緩解收入不平等,重點(diǎn)關(guān)注政策對(duì)資源利用、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、居民收入福利、貧困狀況的影響。 本論文在國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金委員會(huì)的資助下,對(duì)中國(guó)CGE-MS的建模技術(shù)以及其具體應(yīng)用層面進(jìn)行了研究。主要包含了兩個(gè)方面：一是采用可計(jì)算一般均衡微觀模擬序貫法建立一個(gè)凱恩斯結(jié)構(gòu)中國(guó)CGE-MS模型；二是以政策的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整及減貧等效應(yīng)為研究指標(biāo),模擬分析了水價(jià)上漲、電力和天氣補(bǔ)貼兩類(lèi)公共經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。從而為進(jìn)一步完善、優(yōu)化政策提供值得借鑒的量化結(jié)果,為轉(zhuǎn)型期中國(guó)的政策選擇提供參考分析。首先,本文在中國(guó)2007年IO表的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合各個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒和其他相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù),編制了2007年中國(guó)宏觀SAM表,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,繼續(xù)對(duì)其進(jìn)行細(xì)化得到了原始微觀SAM,另外對(duì)這個(gè)原始SAM的缺陷進(jìn)行了必要闡述,并指出其改進(jìn)方法。在明確了現(xiàn)有更新方法的非對(duì)稱性的缺陷以及對(duì)矩陣元素非負(fù)的限制后,本文基于信息理論提出了JSD類(lèi)方法,并給予保號(hào)、誤差控制的擴(kuò)展,提供了整套的矩陣更新框架,并且在實(shí)證中嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)證明了JSD方法的優(yōu)異性質(zhì)。 其次,本文分兩步建立起來(lái)適用于中國(guó)的CGE-MS模型。第一步,在參考IFPRI的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化模型基礎(chǔ)上,建立起來(lái)一個(gè)凱恩斯結(jié)構(gòu)的中國(guó)CGE模型并檢驗(yàn)了模型的建正確性；然后對(duì)模型進(jìn)行微觀模擬的擴(kuò)展,設(shè)定了隨著復(fù)合商品價(jià)格改變而改變的內(nèi)生貧困線,使得最后建立完成的CGE-MS模型能夠基本優(yōu)秀地完成對(duì)政策的模擬分析。從而完整的建構(gòu)出中國(guó)CGE-MS模型,并且用GAMS軟件實(shí)現(xiàn)了全部模型的代碼,從結(jié)構(gòu)定性、數(shù)學(xué)方程體系到程序?qū)崿F(xiàn),提供了一套完整的可擴(kuò)展分析框架,為后續(xù)政策的模擬應(yīng)用提供了準(zhǔn)備,也為同類(lèi)研究提供了參考。 第三,在模型建立后,對(duì)水價(jià)上漲、電力和天然氣補(bǔ)貼兩類(lèi)公共經(jīng)濟(jì)政策進(jìn)行了模擬求解,基于模擬結(jié)果的研究分析得到了若干結(jié)論。 對(duì)于水價(jià)上漲的模擬分析表明,水價(jià)上漲對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、就業(yè)等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量以及部門(mén)產(chǎn)出有一定的負(fù)面影響,并導(dǎo)致了整體物價(jià)水平的上升。而且受此影響,居民、企業(yè)及政府的收入都出現(xiàn)一定程度的下降,貧困發(fā)生率和貧困深度均略有增加,但卻可以明顯降低整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的單位GDP水耗,提高水資源的利用效率。 對(duì)于取消電力和天然氣補(bǔ)貼的模擬分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在考慮外部成本的情況下,結(jié)果表明：取消電力和天然氣補(bǔ)貼對(duì)真實(shí)GDP、進(jìn)出口、就業(yè)等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量以及部門(mén)產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)生了一定的負(fù)面影響,其中采掘業(yè)、重化工業(yè)等電力或天然氣消耗較大產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)出下降十分明顯：受此影響,居民和企業(yè)收入出現(xiàn)下降,由于補(bǔ)貼支出減少政府收入降低幅度相對(duì)較小,同時(shí),貧困發(fā)生率和貧困深度有所增加,但卻可以明顯降低整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的單位GDP電力和天然氣消耗,提高資源利用效率,同時(shí)使得產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和高級(jí)化程度增強(qiáng),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)得到優(yōu)化升級(jí)。 本文最后對(duì)CGE-MS建模技術(shù)研究和實(shí)證模擬兩方面的結(jié)論進(jìn)行了總結(jié),指出了今后的發(fā)展方向,界定了當(dāng)前研究的局限和不足,并對(duì)完善我國(guó)CGE-MS類(lèi)研究提出了改進(jìn)建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Chinese economy has made great achievements. But as the economy continues to develop, China economy also exposed more and more problems, such as unsustainable development problems are still outstanding, the unreasonable industrial structure, resource and environmental constraints intensified, is still a large gap in income distribution, income growth rate is too slow. These problems hamper the completion of a comprehensive well-off society, constructing the socialist harmonious society. The government should pay attention to the protection of resources under the premise of ensuring steady economic growth, optimize industrial structure, reduce poverty and reduce the income inequality, the use of resources to focus on policy, the adjustment of industrial structure, the income effect of welfare, poverty.
In this paper, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the support of Chinese CGE-MS modeling technology and its application level were studied. It mainly contains two aspects: one is the calculation of the microscopic simulation of general equilibrium sequential method to establish a Keynes structure China CGE-MS model; two is the policy of economic growth, industrial structure the adjustment and poverty reduction effect as the research index, simulation analysis of the rising water, electricity and weather subsidies two kinds of public economic policy. So as to further improve, provide quantitative results worth learning optimization policy and provide reference for selection of policy transition Chinese. Firstly, based on the China 2007 IO table, with the statistical yearbook and other relevant data, the preparation of the 2007 Chinese macro SAM table, and on this basis, we refineit to get the original micro SAM, in addition Defects of the original SAM to carry out the necessary, and points out the improvement methods. The defect of non symmetry existing update method and the matrix elements of non negative constraints, based on the information theory and put forward the methods of the JSD class, and give the security number, extended error control, provides a set of matrix update in the empirical framework, and rigorous proof that the excellent properties of JSD method.
Secondly, this paper is divided into two steps to set up CGE-MS model for the Chinese. First, based on IFPRI standard model, set up a Keynes structure China CGE model and test the model validity; and then extended micro simulation model of the set change with the composite commodity prices the change in the poverty line, which makes the final CGE-MS model can basically complete the excellent completion of the simulation analysis of the policy. To construct the CGE-MS model Chinese to complete, and all the model code is implemented by GAMS software, from the qualitative structure, system of mathematical equations to program, provides an extensible framework complete, provides for the simulation application follow-up policy, but also provides a reference for similar research.
Third, after the establishment of the model, two kinds of public economic policies were simulated, including water price rising, electricity and gas subsidies, and some conclusions based on the simulation results were obtained.
Simulation analysis of the price increases that price increases have a negative impact on economic growth, the employment sector and macroeconomic variables such as output, and has led to a rise in the overall price level. And the affected residents, enterprises and government revenues have decreased to some extent, the incidence of poverty and poverty depth were slightly increase, but can significantly reduce the economic unit GDP water consumption, improve the utilization efficiency of water resources.
Simulation analysis of the abolition of electricity and natural gas subsidies, considering the cost of the external circumstances, the results show that the abolition of electricity and natural gas subsidies on the real GDP, import and export, had a negative impact on the employment and other macroeconomic variables as well as the mining sector output, industry, heavy industry and other electricity or natural gas large consumption of industrial output fell significantly affected by this, residents and business income decline, due to reduced government spending on subsidies to income decrease is relatively small, at the same time, the incidence of poverty and poverty depth increased, but it can significantly reduce the economic unit GDP electric power and natural gas consumption, improve resource utilization efficiency, at the same time the rationalization of industrial structure and the level enhancement, the industrial structure optimization and upgrading.
Finally, the two conclusions of CGE-MS modeling technology research and empirical simulation are summarized, the future development direction is pointed out, the limitations and shortcomings of current research are defined, and suggestions for improving CGE-MS class research in China are put forward.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F120;F224

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