發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-27 16:32

  本文選題：新型城鎮(zhèn)化　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下,經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,各種結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題呈現(xiàn)。城鎮(zhèn)化面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn),傳統(tǒng)的粗放型發(fā)展模式已經(jīng)不可持續(xù),同時(shí)也帶來(lái)了一系列的社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)等問(wèn)題。以鋼鐵、水泥、電解鋁等為代表的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過(guò)剩,甚至一些代表性的戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)也一度出現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的現(xiàn)象,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)面臨著巨大的轉(zhuǎn)型壓力。同時(shí)勞動(dòng)力成本在快速上升,低附加值的勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)也面臨著巨大的壓力。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的巨大壓力對(duì)于勞動(dòng)力的轉(zhuǎn)移產(chǎn)生了阻礙作用,不利于農(nóng)村人口的轉(zhuǎn)移,對(duì)新型城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了挑戰(zhàn)。近幾年來(lái)我國(guó)的消費(fèi)保持兩位數(shù)的增長(zhǎng),消費(fèi)由物質(zhì)消費(fèi)向服務(wù)消費(fèi)升級(jí),在這場(chǎng)消費(fèi)革命中蘊(yùn)藏著巨大的潛力,為經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型提供強(qiáng)大的生命力,但是也存在著一些問(wèn)題,出現(xiàn)有需求但是缺少供給的現(xiàn)象。例如在養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)存在著巨大的消費(fèi)需求,但是產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展嚴(yán)重滯后,這可以成為產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的突破口。因此在經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩、產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩、勞動(dòng)力成本上、消費(fèi)快速增長(zhǎng)的背景下,必須將新型城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)三者結(jié)合起來(lái)進(jìn)行分析,才能為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供可靠的理論支撐和政策建議。本文首先通過(guò)對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行研究,嘗試對(duì)新型城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)三者之間的相互作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行理論分析,理清三者之間的相互作用關(guān)系。通過(guò)構(gòu)建新型城鎮(zhèn)化綜合指標(biāo)體系試圖全面反映新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的水平,首先進(jìn)行新型城鎮(zhèn)化指標(biāo)測(cè)算,然后運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)以及方差分解對(duì)新型城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)三者之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,分析三個(gè)變量的動(dòng)態(tài)響應(yīng)關(guān)系,最后得到的結(jié)果基本與理論一致即產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)能夠快速促進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展并且促進(jìn)作用逐漸增強(qiáng),消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)對(duì)新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展,隨著時(shí)間推移作用開(kāi)始減弱。新型城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展能夠強(qiáng)烈的促進(jìn)消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),隨著時(shí)間推移作用逐漸減弱,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)能夠快速促進(jìn)消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),并且作用逐漸增強(qiáng)。本文的研究結(jié)論表明,新型城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)三者之間具有相互作用的關(guān)系,在進(jìn)行實(shí)踐時(shí)要綜合考慮三者之間的關(guān)系,有針對(duì)性的提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:Under the new economic normal, a slowdown in economic growth, showing a variety of structural problems. Urbanization is facing a huge challenge, the traditional extensive development pattern is not sustainable, but also brought a series of social, economic and other issues. In the steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum as the representative of the traditional industry serious excess capacity. Even some representative of the strategic emerging industries also once appeared the phenomenon of excess capacity, the industrial structure is facing tremendous pressure transition. At the same time, the rapid rise in labor costs, low value-added labor-intensive industries are also facing tremendous pressure. The huge pressure of industrial structure for the transfer of labor has a negative effect, is not conducive to the transfer of the rural population, the challenge for the development of new urbanization. In recent years, China's consumption maintained two digit growth, consumption from material consumption to the service consumption upgrade, in The consumer revolution in the tremendous potential to provide strong vitality for economic transformation, but there are also some problems, there are lack of demand but supply. For example, the huge consumer demand exists in the pension industry, but the industry is seriously lagging behind the development of this industry, can become a breakthrough in the transformation and upgrading. Therefore capacity in the economic slowdown, overcapacity, labor costs, consumption growth must be under the background of new urbanization, industrial structure upgrading, combined with the analysis of the consumption structure upgrade three, in order to provide theoretical support and policy recommendations for reliable economic development. Firstly, through the study of relevant literature, to the new town of industrial structure, theoretical analysis of the interaction mechanism between the consumption structure of the three, the interaction relationship between Li Qingsan by building the new city. The town comprehensive index system tries to fully reflect the development of the new urbanization level, the first new urbanization index calculation, and then using the Grainger cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the new urbanization, industrial structure, empirical analysis of the interactive relationship between the consumption structure of the three, the dynamic analysis of three variables the relationship between response, the final results are basically consistent with the theory that the upgrading of the industrial structure to promote the development of new urbanization and promote the development of gradually increased, new urbanization and upgrading of consumption structure, with the passage of time begin to weaken. The development of new urbanization can strongly promote the upgrading of consumption structure, with the passage of time effect gradually weakened the upgrading of the industrial structure, to promote the upgrading of consumption structure, and the effect was enhanced. The conclusions show that, The new urbanization, the industrial structure and the consumption structure interact with each other. In the process of practice, we should consider the relationship between the three, and put forward policy recommendations accordingly.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.21;F121.3;F126.1

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