本文選題：消費(fèi)深度習(xí)性　切入點(diǎn)：政策選擇　出處：《上海經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)是保證供給側(cè)改革順利推進(jìn)的必要條件。但是,自2015年底供給側(cè)改革正式提出以來(lái),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)下行,當(dāng)前穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題值得高度重視。首先,通過(guò)檢驗(yàn),該文發(fā)現(xiàn)了我國(guó)政府支出與居民消費(fèi)存在著同向性變化關(guān)系,這驗(yàn)證了我國(guó)確實(shí)存在消費(fèi)深度習(xí)性問(wèn)題。其次,改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)需求側(cè)管理模式的背景下,該文從考慮消費(fèi)深度習(xí)性問(wèn)題的視角出發(fā),分析了拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要工具組合的變化歷程、原因及結(jié)果,探討了我國(guó)企業(yè)當(dāng)前存在產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題的來(lái)源,指出我國(guó)企業(yè)當(dāng)前亟需進(jìn)行的是升級(jí)而非轉(zhuǎn)型。最后,該文通過(guò)綜合比較得出,當(dāng)前穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的政策選擇應(yīng)主要定位于政府支出(投資)。另外,政府支出(投資)政策需要寬松的貨幣政策給予支撐,同時(shí)當(dāng)前穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)仍然需要注重出口。
[Abstract]:Stable economic growth is a necessary condition to ensure the smooth progress of supply-side reform. However, since the formal introduction of supply-side reform at the end of 2015, China's economy has continued to decline. This paper finds out that the relationship between government expenditure and residents' consumption is in the same direction, which verifies that there is a problem of consumption depth habit in China. Secondly, under the background of demand-side management mode since the reform and opening up, From the perspective of considering the problem of consumption depth habit, this paper analyzes the changing course, causes and results of the main tools combination to stimulate economic growth, and probes into the source of the problem of overcapacity existing in Chinese enterprises at present. It is pointed out that the enterprises in our country are in urgent need of upgrading rather than transformation. Finally, through comprehensive comparison, the paper concludes that the policy choice for stabilizing economic growth at present should be mainly focused on government expenditure (investment). Government spending needs to be supported by loose monetary policy, while stable economic growth still needs to focus on exports.
【作者單位】： 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)國(guó)際工商管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)發(fā)展報(bào)告重點(diǎn)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目“世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展報(bào)告”(編號(hào):11JBG004) 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)國(guó)家級(jí)項(xiàng)目后續(xù)項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):2012110831);上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)博士創(chuàng)新基金(編號(hào):CXJJ-2015-323)的資助
【分類號(hào)】：F124
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本文編號(hào)：1672459