發(fā)布時間：2018-03-06 20:13

  本文選題：長期趨勢　切入點：減速換擋　出處：《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2017年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文根據(jù)研究目的而構(gòu)建GDP等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的協(xié)整系統(tǒng),將簡約的協(xié)整VECM模型轉(zhuǎn)換為結(jié)構(gòu)VECM,繼而轉(zhuǎn)換成包含有協(xié)整信息的VMA,通過VMA識別長期和短期沖擊并分解長期趨勢。根據(jù)長期趨勢的演變和GDP的分布而推斷經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)的數(shù)量特征。由此產(chǎn)生的主要結(jié)論為:GDP長期趨勢呈現(xiàn)出結(jié)構(gòu)性下移,其平均增幅從2001—2009年的9.88%,下降到2010—2014年的7.85%。這一結(jié)果揭示了2010年以來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長持續(xù)下降的源頭,其隱含的意義之一是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形成了部分弱供給特征�；陂L期趨勢的結(jié)構(gòu)性下移,本文推斷長期趨勢和GDP增速的取值范圍,據(jù)此檢驗GDP增速服從截尾正態(tài)分布,由此計算GDP的長期趨勢分布于5.5%—7.5%之間,GDP增速具有91.5%的概率穩(wěn)定在6%—7.5%的區(qū)間。這一結(jié)論意味著,我國GDP增速的持續(xù)下滑將止于6%以上;GDP增長速度正在從10%左右減速至6%—7.5%之間,這是經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)的主要特征。
[Abstract]:This paper cointegration system GDP and other macroeconomic variables according to the research objective, the simple cointegration VECM model into VECM structure, and then converted to contain cointegration information VMA, VMA identified by long-term and short-term impact and decomposition of long-term trends. The quantitative characteristics of the new economic norm and inferred according to the distribution of GDP long term evolution and the trend of the main conclusions. The resulting GDP: long-term trend showing a structural downward, the average growth rate from 2001 to 9.88% in 2009, dropped to 2010 in 2014 - 7.85%. the results show since 2010 economic growth continued to decline in the source, meaning one of the implicit macroeconomic form part of the weak the supply of structural features. Based on the trend of long-term depression, this paper inferred the range of long-term trend and the growth rate of GDP, the test of GDP growth truncated normal distribution, the calculation of the GDP long term trend From 5.5% to 7.5% between the potential distribution, stable interval probability with 91.5% GDP growth in 6% - 7.5%. This conclusion means that the continued decline in China's GDP growth will be limited to 6% or more; between the GDP growth rate is slowing down from about 10% to 6% - 7.5%, which is the main feature of the new economic norm.

【作者單位】： 華中科技大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(71671070)的資助
【分類號】：F124
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本文編號：1576305