本文選題：低碳發(fā)展　切入點：終端用能部門　出處：《鄭州大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著工業(yè)化和城市化的快速發(fā)展，氣候變化、環(huán)境污染、能源危機等問題日益突出，成為制約人類經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展的主要因素。為此，世界各國提出了許多應對措施，低碳經(jīng)濟應運而生。作為世界上最大的發(fā)展中國家和第一碳排放大國，我國所面臨應對氣候變化等問題的壓力越來越大。因此，如何實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變成為亟待解決的問題。當前，河南省作為中原經(jīng)濟區(qū)的主體區(qū)域，經(jīng)濟正處于快速發(fā)展階段，能源消費總量會繼續(xù)增加，碳排放量也會隨之增長。在這種形勢下，正確處理經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境二者的關系，走低能耗、低污染、低排放的發(fā)展模式，具有十分重要的理論及現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先分析了河南省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、能源消費和碳排放現(xiàn)狀，說明河南省發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟的重要性和必要性。然后建立了宏觀指標和終端部門能耗指標，分析河南省18個地級市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的差異，并且得出工業(yè)是影響河南省低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展最大的部門。在此基礎上，計算了河南省工業(yè)分行業(yè)的碳排放量，并利用對數(shù)平均迪氏指數(shù)分解法（Logarithmic mean divisia index, LMDI）對碳排放量高的行業(yè)的影響因素進行了深入分析。最后，結(jié)合各地市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平和各行業(yè)的碳排放影響因素，有針對性地找出適合河南省低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的路徑。 研究表明，第一，，河南省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展主要依靠工業(yè)拉動，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展水平落后。能源消耗總量增長過快，本省的能源生產(chǎn)量不能滿足自身的發(fā)展，而且能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)單一，主要以煤炭為主。這種能源消費形式導致碳排放量也快速增加。根據(jù)環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線，河南省的碳排放總量還沒有出現(xiàn)所謂的“拐點”，碳排放量還將持續(xù)增加。第二，無論宏觀指標還是終端用能部門指標，都顯示河南省18個地市低碳發(fā)展水平存在較大的差異。河南省低碳發(fā)展水平比較高的地區(qū)主要集中在黃河以南和西部地區(qū)；而低碳發(fā)展水平比較低的地區(qū)主要集中在西北地區(qū)，這種分布與河南省的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟分布格局相一致。對五個終端用能部門指標進行比較，發(fā)現(xiàn)工業(yè)是影響河南省低碳發(fā)展水平最大的因素。第三，利用LMDI因素分解法對河南省工業(yè)部門的碳排放影響因素進行分析，得出經(jīng)濟規(guī)模的變化對碳排放量增加貢獻最大，因經(jīng)濟規(guī)模擴大導致碳排放增長量為26579.19萬噸，占碳排放總增長量的99.65%。而工業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)變化則是減少河南省工業(yè)碳排放的最主要因素，減少碳排放7340.09萬噸。工業(yè)能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對河南省工業(yè)碳排放變化影響很小，這說明河南省能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)還需進一步優(yōu)化。河南省碳排放量大的行業(yè)主要有煤炭開采、石油加工、化學原料制造、電力、黑色金屬和有色金屬，都是國民經(jīng)濟中的高耗能行業(yè)。第四，要實現(xiàn)河南省低碳經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，應從調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、實施低碳技術等方面著手。在發(fā)展河南省總體低碳經(jīng)濟的同時，結(jié)合各地市地方的特色，協(xié)同發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, the problems of climate change, environmental pollution and energy crisis become increasingly prominent and become the main factors restricting the economic and social development of human beings. Low-carbon economy emerges as the times require. As the largest developing country and the largest carbon emitter in the world, China is facing more and more pressure to deal with climate change and other problems. How to realize the transformation of economic development mode becomes an urgent problem to be solved. At present, Henan Province, as the main area of the Central Plains Economic Zone, is in the stage of rapid economic development, and the total amount of energy consumption will continue to increase. In this situation, correctly dealing with the relationship between economy and environment, low energy consumption, low pollution, low emission has very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper first analyzes the economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission status of Henan Province, explains the importance and necessity of developing a low-carbon economy in Henan Province, and then establishes a macro index and an energy consumption index for the end sector. This paper analyzes the differences in the development level of low-carbon economy in 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan Province, and draws the conclusion that industry is the most important sector affecting the development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province. On this basis, the carbon emissions from industrial subsectors in Henan Province are calculated. And the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) is used to analyze the influencing factors of the industries with high carbon emissions. Finally, combining with the development level of low-carbon economy in various cities and cities and the influencing factors of carbon emissions in various industries, To find out the appropriate path for the development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province. The results show that, first, the economic development of Henan Province mainly depends on the industrial development, the tertiary industry development level is backward, the total energy consumption is increasing too fast, the energy production of the province can not meet its own development, and the energy consumption structure is single. Mainly coal. This form of energy consumption leads to a rapid increase in carbon emissions. According to the environmental Kuznets curve, the total amount of carbon emissions in Henan Province has not yet appeared a so-called "inflection point," and carbon emissions will continue to increase. Second, Both macroscopical indicators and end-use energy sector indicators show that there are great differences in the low carbon development level of 18 cities in Henan Province. The regions with high low-carbon development level are mainly concentrated in the south and west of the Yellow River. However, the low level of low-carbon development is mainly concentrated in the northwest region, which is consistent with the distribution pattern of industrial economy in Henan Province. The five end-use energy sector indicators are compared. It is found that industry is the most important factor affecting the low carbon development level in Henan Province. Thirdly, the factors affecting carbon emissions in Henan industrial sector are analyzed by using LMDI factorization method, and it is concluded that the change of economic scale contributes the most to the increase of carbon emissions. The increase in carbon emissions due to the expansion of the economic scale is two hundred and sixty-five million seven hundred and ninety-one thousand and nine hundred tons, accounting for 99.65 percent of the total increase in carbon emissions. Changes in industrial internal structure are the most important factors in reducing industrial carbon emissions in Henan Province. Reducing carbon emissions by seventy-three million four hundred thousand and nine hundred tons. The adjustment of industrial energy structure has little effect on the change of industrial carbon emissions in Henan Province, which indicates that the energy consumption structure of Henan Province needs to be further optimized. The major industries with large carbon emissions in Henan Province are coal mining and petroleum processing. Chemical raw materials manufacturing, electric power, ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals are all high energy consuming industries in the national economy. 4th, in order to achieve the development of a low-carbon economy in Henan Province, the industrial structure should be adjusted. The implementation of low-carbon technology and other aspects of the development of the overall low-carbon economy in Henan Province at the same time, combined with the local characteristics of various cities, coordinated development.
【學位授予單位】：鄭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;X322

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