本文關鍵詞： 長三角城市群 演化機制 復雜網(wǎng)絡結構 網(wǎng)絡結構效應　出處：《浙江財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：在“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+”和全球經(jīng)濟一體化的雙重背景下,城市群已經(jīng)成為各國參與國際競爭和分工的重要空間組織形式,逐漸成長為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的核心,并深刻影響著我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展格局和發(fā)展實力。各類經(jīng)濟要素如物質、資金、信息、技術和人才等在各區(qū)域之間產(chǎn)生迅速交流,加強了城市群內(nèi)部各主體之間及其與外部區(qū)域之間的關聯(lián),對城市群的空間結構和經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展在很大程度上具有推動作用,正在促使其向開放性的復雜網(wǎng)絡化結構演變,而這種網(wǎng)絡化結構是如何演化的、具有怎樣的趨勢,及其對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展是否具有促進作用對于當前城市群的規(guī)劃和發(fā)展具有重要意義。因此,本文在對城市群空間復雜網(wǎng)絡化研究的理論和文獻進行回顧和梳理的基礎上,建立了“發(fā)現(xiàn)并凝練機制—形成機制的空間表現(xiàn)—效應影響機制的檢驗”于一體的城市群復雜網(wǎng)絡結構演化的理論分析框架。本文立足于長三角城市群,依托30個城市20年的基礎數(shù)據(jù),基于新經(jīng)濟地理學理論和復雜網(wǎng)絡理論,通過模擬1995-2014年20年期間長三角城市群的網(wǎng)絡演化情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)其演化規(guī)律和演化趨勢,在此基礎上探討網(wǎng)絡化結構對城市群經(jīng)濟的影響效應,進而提出優(yōu)化城市群網(wǎng)絡和促進其經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的建議。首先,本文從新經(jīng)濟地理學、城市和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟學相關理論的研究文獻出發(fā)探尋城市群空間網(wǎng)絡化過程中可能存在的規(guī)律,隨后對近年來國內(nèi)外應用復雜網(wǎng)絡理論對城市群網(wǎng)絡的研究文獻進行全面梳理,發(fā)現(xiàn)當前研究雖然趨向運用復雜網(wǎng)絡分析方法研究城市群空間網(wǎng)絡,但是研究只限于對復雜網(wǎng)絡結構特征的分析,缺乏對網(wǎng)絡結構效應的考察以及其演化機制的探討,割裂了現(xiàn)象之間的聯(lián)系,沒有形成較為完整的理論分析框架。本文認為要素的空間流動、基礎設施網(wǎng)絡的完善以及政府的推動是促進城市群網(wǎng)絡形成的動因,而要素流是網(wǎng)絡形成的“源動力”;在空間集聚與擴散機制和空間外部性機制的作用下,網(wǎng)絡不斷演化,逐漸復雜化、開放化;而隨著網(wǎng)絡化水平的提升,這種高關聯(lián)性的結構對要素以更快速度流動進而經(jīng)濟的迅速發(fā)展具有顯著的促進作用�；诖�,本文對城市空間復雜網(wǎng)絡的演化機制進行系統(tǒng)和全面地分析。其次,為了全面系統(tǒng)地對城市群空間演化特征展開研究,本文在前文構建的理論分析框架下將人流、物資流、信息流和資金流等要素流綜合融入改進的引力模型,建立了長三角城市群內(nèi)各城市之間綜合經(jīng)濟空間關聯(lián)關系矩陣,依托UCINET6模擬20年的城市群復雜網(wǎng)絡結構形態(tài)結構,進而得到網(wǎng)絡密度、網(wǎng)絡關聯(lián)度、網(wǎng)絡等級度和網(wǎng)絡效率等四個網(wǎng)絡整體結構性指標,以及點度中心度、中間中心度和接近中心度等三個網(wǎng)絡個體結構性指標,對網(wǎng)絡的結構特性進行全方位刻畫與描述,并通過使用塊模型研究網(wǎng)絡的凝聚特征,發(fā)現(xiàn)城市群網(wǎng)絡板塊特征明顯。進一步地,本文以文章第三部分總結的演化機制為基礎,對這些結構特性進行深入地分析和闡釋。然后,本文結合理論分析以及對長三角城市群復雜網(wǎng)絡演化特征的探索與解釋,發(fā)現(xiàn)復雜網(wǎng)絡的整體結構性指標與城市群的整體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平表現(xiàn)出較為一致的演化趨勢,個體結構性指標與各城市的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平呈現(xiàn)出一定的分布規(guī)律,并基于前文的演化機制分析分別提出了城市群復雜網(wǎng)絡結構的整體網(wǎng)絡結構和個體網(wǎng)絡結構對城市群及其內(nèi)部城市的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平具有顯著影響效應的兩大假說。對于網(wǎng)絡整體結構性,其結構指標構成了時間序列,需采用簡單回歸模型,而個體網(wǎng)絡結構指標構成了面板數(shù)據(jù)庫,需采用面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸模型,依托兩類數(shù)據(jù)庫和兩種計量回歸方法,對兩大假說進行了驗證,依次檢驗網(wǎng)絡結構效應影響機制的作用效果。實證結果表明,城市群復雜網(wǎng)絡結構中,整體網(wǎng)絡密度的提升以及網(wǎng)絡等級度和網(wǎng)絡效率的下降,是助推城市群經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要驅動力;個體網(wǎng)絡中,點度中心度和接近中心度的提升以及中間中心度的降低對城市經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有正向促進作用。最后,本文根據(jù)前文城市群復雜網(wǎng)絡結構演化特征的研究結果和對網(wǎng)絡結構效應假說的檢驗,總結通篇文章并凝練研究的主要結論,在此基礎上對長三角城市群的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行分析,以期能提出幾點有益的政策啟示。文章最后也對整個研究的不足之處進行總結并說明了進一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:In the dual background of Internet plus "and the global economic integration, the city group has become an important form of spatial organization of countries to participate in international competition and division of labor, gradually become the core of regional economic development, and a profound impact on the development pattern and development strength of our economy. Such as material, capital, information elements of all kinds of economic and technology and talent to produce rapid exchanges in various regions, strengthen the association between city group subjects and outside the region, spatial structure and economic and social development of the city group has promoting effect to a great extent, is the evolution of complex network structure to open, and the network structure is how to evolve, what is the trend of economic development, whether can promote is of great significance for the planning and development of the city group. Therefore, in this paper Based on the research of complex network of city space theory and literature review on the establishment of the "discovery and concise mechanism - the formation mechanism of space - effect mechanism of inspection" in one of the city complex network structure evolution in the framework of theoretical analysis. This paper is based on the Yangtze River Delta city group, relying on the 30 city basic data of 20 years, the new economic geography theory and based on complex network theory, through the simulation of 1995-2014 years during the 20 years in the Yangtze River Delta city group network evolution, the evolution and evolution trend, based on the network structure of city agglomeration economy effect, then puts forward the optimized network and promote the city group the economic development of China. First of all, this article from the new economic geography, city and regional economics research literature related theory of exploring the city group space network The law may exist in the process, followed by an overall review of the research literature at home and abroad in recent years the application of complex network theory of city network, although the study found that the current trend of space network research of city group by using the complex network, but the research is only limited to the analysis of complex network structure, the lack of investigation of network structure effect the mechanism and its evolution, separates the phenomenon of contact, has not formed a complete theoretical framework. The factor flow, network infrastructure and improve the government's impetus is the motivation to promote the city group to form a network, and network element flow formed by the "source of power"; in the spatial agglomeration with the diffusion mechanism and spatial externality mechanism, network evolution, gradually complicated, open; and with the network level, the high Has a significant role in promoting the rapid development of the structure of the relevance of elements at a faster rate of flow and economy. Based on this, systematic and comprehensive analysis of the evolution mechanism of the city space of complex networks. Secondly, in order to comprehensively and systematically the city spatial evolution characteristics is studied, based on an earlier theoretical analysis framework the flow, material flow, information flow and cash flow and other factors flow is integrated into the improved gravity model, establish the relationship between the city of Yangtze River Delta city group in the comprehensive economic spatial correlation matrix, based on the UCINET6 simulation of 20 years of city group structure in complex network structure, and then obtain the network density, network relation, network grade the efficiency of the network and the four network overall structural index and degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality of three structural indicators of individual networks. The structural properties of the network for all-round depiction and description, and through the use of agglomerated feature block model of the network, find the city network plate is obvious. Furthermore, based on the evolution mechanism of the third part of the article, for the structural characteristics of deep analysis and interpretation. Then, this paper combines the theory analysis and evolution of the Yangtze River Delta city group of complex network exploration and interpretation, found that the overall structural index and city complex network group's overall level of economic development shows the evolution trend is consistent, individual structural index and the level of economic development of the city shows a certain distribution, and analyze the evolution mechanism based on the above city were put forward. Complex network structure overall network structure and individual network structure of the city group and city economic development level has Effect of two major hypotheses for the network effect. The overall structure, the structure index consists of time series, the simple regression model, and the individual network structure index consists of panel data, using panel data regression model, regression method based on two kinds of database and two kinds of measurement, the two hypothesis was proved, role in order to test the impact of effect mechanism of network structure effect. The empirical results show that the city group of the complex network structure, the whole network density and enhance the network level and decreased network efficiency, is an important driving force in economic development to boost the city; individual network, a decrease in the degree of centrality and closeness centrality. Ascension and middle center has positive effect on the economic development of the city. Finally, according to the research results above city group evolution characteristics of complex network structure and network Test the structure effect hypothesis, the paper summed up the main conclusions and concise research, based on the current situation of the development of the Yangtze River Delta city group is analyzed, in order to put forward some useful policy implications. Finally the inadequacies of the study are summarized and the further research direction.

【學位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127

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