本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟增長的可持續(xù)性 TFP 貢獻(xiàn)率 中韓比較　出處：《青島大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)高速增長了三十多年,按照世界銀行的劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),我國已于2011年邁入中上等收入國家的行列。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟增長的歷史經(jīng)驗,經(jīng)濟體進(jìn)入這一階段后往往伴隨著經(jīng)濟增速放緩、人均收入增長乏力的情況,并面臨著嚴(yán)峻的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的壓力。中國經(jīng)濟能否在這一關(guān)鍵時期提高全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長率,是成功跨越中等收入陷阱并最終步入高收入國家的重中之重。 本研究首先對中國經(jīng)濟各領(lǐng)域的全要素生產(chǎn)率相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行了評述。其次,采用非參數(shù)DEA-Malmquist指數(shù)方法對1978年至2011年期間中國29個省、市、自治區(qū)的TFP指數(shù)進(jìn)行求解,并根據(jù)實證結(jié)果從總體、區(qū)域、省份的角度綜合分析過去十多年經(jīng)濟增長的特征。更為重要的是,通過對比中韓兩國在人均GDP相似階段的TFP增長率對經(jīng)濟增長率的貢獻(xiàn)率,明確我國所處的歷史發(fā)展階段。鑒于中國的特殊國情,如果總體貢獻(xiàn)率趨勢與韓國存在較大差異,那么少數(shù)幾個經(jīng)濟最發(fā)達(dá)的省市是否出現(xiàn)了貢獻(xiàn)率上升的跡象,也是本文所關(guān)注的。 研究結(jié)果表明,東部地區(qū)優(yōu)先分享了改革開放政策帶來的好處,通過大量吸引外資和技術(shù),實現(xiàn)了率先發(fā)展,在2008年之前一直引領(lǐng)中國經(jīng)濟的高速增長,但由于知識流量在向國外前沿技術(shù)靠近的過程中逐漸枯竭,東部大多數(shù)省份越來越感受到產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的壓力,增長乏力；中西部地區(qū)在進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)后,尤其是2008年金融危機后,開始承接?xùn)|部地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移的產(chǎn)業(yè),事實上開戶了在中國不同區(qū)域之間的廣業(yè)雁陣轉(zhuǎn)移,在未來一段時期仍舊有著可持續(xù)增長的潛力；東部其它省份能不能像韓國看齊,甚至向北京和上�？待R,提高全要素生產(chǎn)率,是決定未來中國經(jīng)濟增長可持續(xù)性的關(guān)鍵。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing at a high speed for more than 30 years. According to the World Bank's classification standards, China has entered the ranks of the upper and middle income countries in 2011. According to the historical experience of economic growth. When the economy enters this stage, it is often accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth and weak growth in per capita income. Whether the Chinese economy can increase the growth rate of total factor productivity in this critical period is the top priority of successfully crossing the middle-income trap and finally stepping into the high-income countries. This study first reviews the relevant studies on total factor productivity in various fields of China's economy. Secondly, it reviews the related researches on the total factor productivity in various fields of the Chinese economy. The nonparametric DEA-Malmquist index method is used to solve the TFP index of 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 1978 to 2011. The regional and provincial perspective comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of economic growth in the past decade. More importantly, by comparing the contribution of TFP growth rate to economic growth rate in the similar stage of GDP per capita between China and South Korea. In view of the special situation of China, if the trend of overall contribution rate is quite different from that of South Korea. So whether a few of the most developed provinces and cities show signs of increasing contribution rate is also the concern of this paper. The results show that the eastern region has given priority to share the benefits of the reform and opening up policy, through attracting a large number of foreign investment and technology, achieved the first development. Until 2008, it had led the rapid growth of China's economy, but as the flow of knowledge dried up as it approached frontier technologies abroad. Most of the eastern provinces feel the pressure of industrial transformation and upgrading more and more, the growth is weak; After entering 21th century, especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the central and western regions began to undertake the transfer of industries in the eastern region. There is still potential for sustainable growth for some time to come; Whether other eastern provinces can match South Korea, or even Beijing and Shanghai, and increase total factor productivity are key to determining the sustainability of China's future economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.1;F124.5

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