本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系實(shí)證分析　出處：《中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：物流產(chǎn)業(yè)是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要組成部分,發(fā)展物流產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)于提高綜合國(guó)力而言具有非常深遠(yuǎn)的意義。隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,中國(guó)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)在物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、物流產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)出等方面取得巨大成就。然而,物流產(chǎn)業(yè)在快速發(fā)展的同時(shí),也因中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡和資源整合機(jī)制缺失等因素而面臨成本高、效率低、環(huán)節(jié)多等問(wèn)題。正是在這樣的背景下,有必要研究影響中國(guó)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的因素以及相關(guān)因素之間的聯(lián)系和這些因素與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,以期推動(dòng)中國(guó)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文通過(guò)總結(jié)與分析現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)研究,明晰了物流產(chǎn)業(yè)定義、物流產(chǎn)業(yè)影響因素、物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展路徑以及物流產(chǎn)業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)互動(dòng)關(guān)系等四組概念的特點(diǎn)和性質(zhì)。繼而采取主成分分析法,從影響物流能力要素的角度,利用1991年至2011年之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)“物流產(chǎn)業(yè)”影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。通過(guò)對(duì)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行主成分分析,得出影響物流能力的三個(gè)因素為：基礎(chǔ)因素、結(jié)構(gòu)因素、市場(chǎng)因素。此三類(lèi)綜合性影響因素使得對(duì)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的評(píng)價(jià)相比依靠物流產(chǎn)出指標(biāo)而言更具系統(tǒng)性和客觀性。 在此基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)調(diào)整后的因素指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行協(xié)整分析,得出三因素之間及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間具有長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,且基礎(chǔ)因素、結(jié)構(gòu)因素與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)正相關(guān)。同時(shí),通過(guò)VAR模型的建立分析了三因素之間及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的短期互動(dòng)關(guān)系,并依據(jù)格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果對(duì)“物流與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)”模糊模型進(jìn)行調(diào)整,使得三大因素間的影響關(guān)系得到明確,細(xì)化了物流產(chǎn)業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的互動(dòng)過(guò)程。 根據(jù)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,本文從基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)、優(yōu)化結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)聯(lián)動(dòng)三方面給出相關(guān)政策建議。最后,本文從理論型結(jié)論、實(shí)證型結(jié)論與建議型結(jié)論等三方面對(duì)文章中的研究所得進(jìn)行總結(jié),并提出后續(xù)的研究方向,即物流產(chǎn)業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:The logistics industry is an important part of Chinese economic development, the development of the logistics industry has a very far-reaching significance for improving the comprehensive national strength. With the development of economy Chinese, Chinese logistics industry in the construction of logistics infrastructure, logistics industry output and achieved great achievement. However, the logistics industry is in rapid development, but also because of Chinese industry the structure, energy structure, unbalanced regional development and lack of resources integration mechanism and other factors facing high costs and low efficiency problems, many links. It is in this context, it is necessary to study the relationship between effects of Chinese logistics industry development factors and related factors and these factors and economic growth, to promote the sustainable development of logistics industry China.
This paper summarizes the existing literature research and analysis, clarifies the definition of the logistics industry, the logistics industry influence factors, characteristics and nature of the development path of the logistics industry and the logistics industry and economic growth relationship between four groups of concepts. And use the principal component analysis method, flow capacity factors from the influence of the angle between 1991 and 2011, with the economy data on the effects of logistics industry empirical analysis. Through principal component analysis on the index data, three factors that influence the logistics capacity: basic factors, structural factors, market factors. Factors affecting the three comprehensive evaluation makes the development status of the logistics industry compared to rely on the logistics output index system more and objectivity.
On this basis, a cointegration analysis based on factor index data after adjustment, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three factors and economic growth, and the basic factor, structure factor is positively correlated with economic growth. At the same time, through the establishment of VAR model to analyze three factors between economic growth and short-term relationship and, according to the Grainger causality test results of "logistics and economic growth" fuzzy model is adjusted, the three major factors influencing the relationship between the clear and refine the process of interaction between logistics industry and economic growth.
According to the results of empirical analysis, this article from the basic construction, optimize the structure of industry linkage in three aspects put forward the relevant policy suggestions. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusion, the article's empirical conclusions and recommendations conclusions in three aspects, and puts forward the further research direction, namely the relationship between logistics industry and economic development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F259.2;F124

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