【摘要】：人口是決定經(jīng)濟增長最重要的因素之一。隨著絕大多數(shù)發(fā)達國家和部分發(fā)展中國家人口結(jié)構(gòu)的急劇轉(zhuǎn)變，世界各國對人口問題的關(guān)注也開始從最初的人口數(shù)量問題向人口結(jié)構(gòu)、人口遷移等多層面的人口問題轉(zhuǎn)變。新疆地處亞歐大陸腹地，與八個國家接壤，是一個多民族聚居，多宗教并存，多文化、多生態(tài)、多資源、多體制共生的特殊地區(qū)。新疆人口空間動態(tài)不僅具有我國人口問題的一般性特征，而且表現(xiàn)出與我國其他省區(qū)不同的特征。研究新疆人口空間動態(tài)對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響，合理優(yōu)化新疆人口空間動態(tài)，能夠?qū)⑷丝诎l(fā)展的各個層面進行系統(tǒng)整合，有利于重新審視人口發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展問題，對于新疆經(jīng)濟社會持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展意義重大。 本文首先對人口空間動態(tài)的內(nèi)涵在相關(guān)研究基礎(chǔ)上進行了科學(xué)的界定，將人口空間動態(tài)內(nèi)涵界定為“人口發(fā)展過程和人口現(xiàn)象的空間表現(xiàn)形式及其地域差異，以及他們與自然和人口各環(huán)境要素之間的相互影響和相互制約的關(guān)系”，從而將人口空間動態(tài)的研究劃分為動態(tài)的人口遷移、變化的人口結(jié)構(gòu)和靜態(tài)的人口分布三層內(nèi)容。 首先，本文對新疆人口空間動態(tài)的特征和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的特征進行了分析，從人口空間動態(tài)內(nèi)涵出發(fā)總結(jié)出了新疆人口空間動態(tài)發(fā)展的10大特征，以錫爾指數(shù)分析為基礎(chǔ)發(fā)現(xiàn)新疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的突出特征就是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不平衡問題，地區(qū)間經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差距過大是新疆經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中應(yīng)著力解決的問題。在對人口與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關(guān)系理論梳理的基礎(chǔ)上。從理論上推導(dǎo)了人口空間動態(tài)對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響機理，分別研究了靜態(tài)人口空間分布對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的效應(yīng)、動態(tài)人口遷移對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的效應(yīng)和存在廣義資本流動條件下的人口空間動態(tài)總效應(yīng)。其次，本文從理論上和實證上分析了人口空間動態(tài)對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響。從理論上看，無論是封閉條件下的人口自然增長還是開放環(huán)境下的人口遷移流動均對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有重要影響，人口遷移帶動了人力資本和物質(zhì)資本遷移從而引起了地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差距的變動。文章基于人口空間動態(tài)內(nèi)涵的三個層面實證分析了人口空間動態(tài)對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響。從人口空間分布看，新疆人口密度的增加有利于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，但是新疆人口數(shù)量的增加需要選擇特定的地區(qū)，而不是人口密度已經(jīng)過高的地區(qū)；從人口遷移層面看，新疆人口遷移對于地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起到了促進作用，而且人口遷移是縮小新疆地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差距的重要途徑，新疆應(yīng)加快人口遷移進程，尤其是南疆地區(qū)人口應(yīng)擴大遷移范圍，通過與發(fā)達地區(qū)的互動抵消內(nèi)部人口遷移流動對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的消極影響。另外，我們基于新經(jīng)濟地理學(xué)要素空間集聚的分析邏輯研究了新疆人口空間動態(tài)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一致性問題，發(fā)現(xiàn)新疆人口空間動態(tài)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展在空間上表現(xiàn)出明顯的非協(xié)同性，協(xié)同性較好的只有石河子、烏魯木齊、昌吉和巴州等地，，絕大部分地區(qū)處于人口集中度大于經(jīng)濟集中度的初級演變階段，由此我們提出了人口空間動態(tài)優(yōu)化的政策必要性。 基于以上分析，本文認(rèn)為優(yōu)化新疆人口空間動態(tài)對于新疆經(jīng)濟社會穩(wěn)定快速發(fā)展具有重要意義。因此，文章在新疆人口空間動態(tài)三層內(nèi)涵的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了新疆人口空間動態(tài)優(yōu)化的政策體系，提出新疆人口增長優(yōu)化是基點，人口遷移優(yōu)化是關(guān)鍵，人口結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化是中心環(huán)節(jié)，人口分布優(yōu)化是歸宿四個方面的人口空間動態(tài)優(yōu)化政策。
[Abstract]:Population is one of the most important factors determining economic growth. With the rapid change of population structure in most developed countries and some developing countries, the attention of the world on population problems has begun to shift from the initial population problem to the population structure, population migration and other multi-level population problems. It is a special area with multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-cultural, multi-ecological, multi-resource and multi-system. The spatial dynamics of population in Xinjiang not only has the general characteristics of population problems in China, but also shows different characteristics from other provinces and regions in China. The influence of development and rational optimization of population spatial dynamics in Xinjiang can integrate all aspects of population development systematically, which is conducive to re-examining the issue of population development and economic development. It is of great significance to the sustainable and stable development of Xinjiang's economy and society.
Firstly, this paper defines the connotation of population spatial dynamics scientifically on the basis of relevant research, and defines the connotation of population spatial dynamics as "the spatial manifestations and regional differences of population development and population phenomena, as well as the mutual influence and mutual restriction between them and the environmental factors of nature and population". Thus, the study of population spatial dynamics can be divided into three layers: dynamic population migration, changing population structure and static population distribution.
Firstly, this paper analyzes the characteristics of population spatial dynamics and regional economic development in Xinjiang, sums up 10 characteristics of population spatial dynamics in Xinjiang from the connotation of population spatial dynamics, and finds that the prominent feature of regional economic development in Xinjiang is the unbalanced development of regional economy on the basis of Syl index analysis. On the basis of combing the theory of the relationship between population and economic development, this paper theoretically deduces the influence mechanism of population spatial dynamics on regional economic development, and studies the effects of static population spatial distribution on regional economic development and dynamic population respectively. The effect of migration on regional economic growth and the total effect of population spatial dynamics under the condition of generalized capital flow are analyzed theoretically and empirically in this paper. Moving average has an important impact on economic development. Population migration drives the migration of human capital and material capital, which leads to the change of regional economic development gap. The increase of population density is conducive to economic development, but the increase of population in Xinjiang needs to select specific areas rather than areas with excessive population density; from the perspective of population migration, population migration in Xinjiang has played a role in promoting regional economic development, and population migration is an important way to narrow the economic development gap in Xinjiang. In addition, based on the analysis logic of spatial agglomeration of new economic geography, we study the spatial dynamics of population and regional economic development in Xinjiang. The consistency of the exhibition shows that the spatial dynamics of population and economic development in Xinjiang show obvious non-synergy in space. Only Shihezi, Urumqi, Changji and Bazhou have better synergy. Most of the areas are in the primary evolution stage where the degree of population concentration is greater than that of economic concentration. Therefore, we put forward the spatial dynamics of population. Policy necessity of state optimization.
Based on the above analysis, this paper holds that optimizing the spatial population dynamics in Xinjiang is of great significance to the stability and rapid development of Xinjiang's economy and society. Population structure optimization is the key link and population distribution optimization is the dynamic optimization policy of population space.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;C92-05

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 賀燦飛;朱晟君;;制造業(yè)地理集聚的區(qū)域差異研究——江蘇和安徽對比研究[J];地理科學(xué);2008年06期

2 董冠鵬;郭騰云;馬靜;;空間依賴、空間異質(zhì)與京津冀都市地區(qū)經(jīng)濟收斂[J];地理科學(xué);2010年05期

3 陳松林;陳進棟;韋素瓊;;福建省綜合交通可達性格局及其與制造業(yè)空間分布的關(guān)系分析[J];地理科學(xué);2012年07期

4 覃成林;張華;張技輝;;中國區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡的新趨勢及成因——基于人口加權(quán)變異系數(shù)的測度及其空間和產(chǎn)業(yè)二重分解[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟;2011年10期

5 尹虹潘;;開放環(huán)境下的中國經(jīng)濟地理重塑——“第一自然”的再發(fā)現(xiàn)與“第二自然”的再創(chuàng)造[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟;2012年05期

6 蔡翼飛;張車偉;;地區(qū)差距的新視角:人口與產(chǎn)業(yè)分布不匹配研究[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟;2012年05期

7 韓春鮮;馬耀峰;羅輝;;新疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展空間差異與演變機制分析[J];干旱區(qū)地理;2010年03期

8 穆光宗;;人口優(yōu)化理論初探[J];北京大學(xué)學(xué)報(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版);2012年05期

9 譚斌;王菲;虞克明;;新疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟差異及其影響因素分析[J];西部論壇;2012年05期

10 王慶喜;徐維祥;朱恒福;;外商群集投資的區(qū)位決定因素:基于驗證性因子分析的研究[J];地理科學(xué);2012年12期

本文編號：2230083