本文選題：貨幣政策 + 區(qū)域非對稱效應(yīng)　； 參考：《云南大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：“貨幣政策能做什么和不能做什么,貨幣政策是否有效”(弗里德曼1968),一直是宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)家關(guān)注的焦點,貨幣政策對于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的影響和作用更是金融理論研究的前沿。如何更好把握貨幣政策的調(diào)控力度,提高貨幣政策的有效性,不僅關(guān)乎政府和貨幣當局能否做到科學(xué)決策、精準調(diào)控更深刻影響到宏觀經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展等重要戰(zhàn)略目標的實現(xiàn)。傳統(tǒng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟理論認為貨幣政策同其他宏觀經(jīng)濟變量一樣是一個總量總體的概念即貨幣政策當局制定和實施貨幣政策是一個總量管理的過程應(yīng)更多關(guān)注整個宏觀經(jīng)濟、金融環(huán)境的運行情況,無需考慮太具體的微觀細節(jié),這個基本結(jié)論成為實施統(tǒng)一貨幣政策的重要基礎(chǔ)。然而近年來,人們普遍意識到同一貨幣區(qū)的不同經(jīng)濟體,在統(tǒng)一貨幣政策的沖擊下,經(jīng)濟反應(yīng)效應(yīng)卻有著明顯差異。一方面,不同區(qū)域利用自身區(qū)位特色或者通過制度改革創(chuàng)新,將經(jīng)濟潛力轉(zhuǎn)化為經(jīng)濟優(yōu)勢,產(chǎn)生區(qū)域發(fā)展差異；另一方面貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)過程是復(fù)雜且曲折的,涉及到貨幣當局、金融市場、大量的金融機構(gòu),最終影響微觀主體。整個傳導(dǎo)渠道的暢通與否及傳導(dǎo)環(huán)節(jié)中介變量和微觀主體的差異都會對最終效果產(chǎn)生明顯影響,進而導(dǎo)致不同區(qū)域?qū)我回泿耪弋a(chǎn)生非對稱效應(yīng)。當前中國正處于經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)軌的關(guān)鍵時期,尤其是經(jīng)濟進入新常態(tài)后,要實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長方式的根本轉(zhuǎn)變,貨幣政策的效果也將經(jīng)受嚴峻的考驗。怎樣利用貨幣政策的理論來指導(dǎo)宏觀貨幣信貸管理,竭力避免貨幣政策工具成為區(qū)域間發(fā)展差距拉大的因素,將是中國能否在“十三五”時期是全面建成小康社會,促進區(qū)域經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展和消除貧困的關(guān)鍵。本文遵循“是什么”→“為什么”→“怎么辦”的哲學(xué)基本分析思路,從文獻梳理、理論分析、實證檢驗三個層次全面考察了中國貨幣政策區(qū)域非對稱效應(yīng)及其成因機制。在對國內(nèi)外文獻詳細梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,基于向量自回歸模型(VAR)定量比較分析中國東部、中部、西部地區(qū)及31個省份在面對統(tǒng)一貨幣政策沖擊時的不同響應(yīng),得出中國貨幣政策區(qū)域非對稱效應(yīng)存在的結(jié)論,并針對貨幣政策區(qū)域非對稱效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生的原因從最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論、貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制理論、區(qū)域總供給總需求模型理論、中國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的特殊性四個角度分析了貨幣政策區(qū)域非對稱性效應(yīng)的成因機制,在此基礎(chǔ)上形成了相關(guān)的政策建議。本文內(nèi)容共九章分成五個部分。第一部分是第一、二章,為本文的緒論及文獻綜述部分。第一章介紹了本文的研究背景、研究意義、研究方法、研究思路結(jié)構(gòu)以及創(chuàng)新點等內(nèi)容。第二章介紹了本文涉及到的相關(guān)概念,及國內(nèi)外的主要研究成果。第二部分是第三章,為本文的實證部分。運用向量自回歸模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解等計量分析工具,構(gòu)建貨幣政策(M2)對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出(真實GDP)和價格水平(GDP平減指數(shù))的沖擊模型。從區(qū)域整體角度出發(fā),基于區(qū)域視角對東中西三大區(qū)域進行分析；從區(qū)域內(nèi)部差異性入手,基于省際視角對31個省份進行分析,得出中國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)存在非對稱性的結(jié)論。實證結(jié)論顯示貨幣政策對區(qū)域內(nèi)部不同省份之間的影響差異十分顯著,整體來看正的貨幣政策沖擊有效地促進東部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長,而不會帶來較高的價格變化,貨幣政策沖擊下中西部地區(qū)產(chǎn)出增長低于東部地區(qū),而價格變化卻高于東部地區(qū)。第三部分是第四、五、六、七章,為本文的成因機制分析部分。主要從最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論、貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制理論、區(qū)域總供給總需求模型理論、中國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的特殊性四個角度分析了貨幣政策區(qū)域非對稱效應(yīng)的成因機制。第四章采用勞動力流動性、經(jīng)濟開放度、產(chǎn)品多樣化、資本流動性4個評價指標對中國是否構(gòu)成最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)這一命題進行了統(tǒng)計研究。第五章基于貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制理論分析了中國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制的基本情況,并從傳導(dǎo)機制的核心內(nèi)涵出發(fā)分析了中國各地區(qū)在金融發(fā)展水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和企業(yè)規(guī)模結(jié)構(gòu)方面的差異及其對貨幣政策區(qū)域非對稱性效應(yīng)的影響,并進行了實證檢驗。第六章基于區(qū)域AD-AS模型框架,探討了區(qū)域總供給曲線的斜率以及區(qū)域總需求曲線貨幣政策乘數(shù)的差異,解釋了中國貨幣政策對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,并且貨幣政策對發(fā)達地區(qū)經(jīng)濟推動作用更加顯著,模型分析結(jié)果與本文第三章實證結(jié)果一致。第七章從具有特殊性的地方政府傳導(dǎo)機制及中國貨幣政策工具實踐的區(qū)域差異進行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)地方政府對區(qū)域金融的干預(yù),尤其是借助房地產(chǎn)價格傳導(dǎo)渠道和金融信貸傳導(dǎo)渠道進行干預(yù),以及再貼現(xiàn)業(yè)務(wù)、存款利率、存款準備金率、信貸政策和再貸款政策等貨幣政策工具的區(qū)域傳導(dǎo)差異也會導(dǎo)致貨幣政策的區(qū)域非對稱性效應(yīng)。第四部分是第八章,為政策建議部分。從貨幣政策區(qū)域非對稱性效應(yīng)的成因機制入手,提出根據(jù)統(tǒng)籌區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的總體要求,促進區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展；充分發(fā)揮現(xiàn)代金融對經(jīng)濟乘數(shù)杠桿效應(yīng),推動區(qū)域金融體系協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展：在保持貨幣政策統(tǒng)一性的前提下,實施部分貨幣政策工具在一定范圍內(nèi)的區(qū)域差別化操作的相關(guān)政策建議。第五部分是第九章,為結(jié)論部分。闡述了本文基本結(jié)論,不足及研究展望。
[Abstract]:"What can monetary policy do and can't do, whether monetary policy is effective" (Freedman 1968) has always been the focus of macro economists. The influence and role of monetary policy on regional economy is the forefront of financial theory research. How to better grasp the control of monetary policy and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, It is only about whether the government and the monetary authorities can make scientific decisions, precision regulation and control more profoundly affect the realization of important strategic objectives, such as macroeconomic stability and regional economic coordinated development. The implementation of monetary policy is a process of total amount management, which should pay more attention to the whole macro-economy and the operation of the financial environment without considering too specific microcosmic details. This basic conclusion has become an important basis for the implementation of the unified monetary policy. However, in recent years, people have generally realized that the different economies of the same currency area are in a unified currency. Under the impact of policy, there are obvious differences in economic response effect. On the one hand, different regions use their own regional characteristics or through system reform and innovation to transform the economic potential into economic advantages and produce regional development differences; on the other hand, the transmission process of monetary policy is complex and tortuous, involving monetary authorities, financial markets, and large scale. The volume of financial institutions ultimately affects the micro body. The unimpeded flow of the whole channel and the difference between the intermediary variables and the micro bodies of the transmission link will have an obvious effect on the final effect, and thus lead to the asymmetric effect of the single monetary policy in different regions. After entering the new normal state, to realize the fundamental change in the way of economic growth, the effect of monetary policy will also stand a severe test. How to use the theory of monetary policy to guide the management of macro money and credit, and try to avoid the reason that monetary policy tools have become the widening gap between regional development, and whether China can be the whole of the "13th Five-Year" period. In order to build a well-off society and promote the coordinated development of regional economy and the key to eliminating poverty, this paper follows the basic philosophical analysis idea of "what is" "what", "why" and "how to do". From the three levels of literature review, theoretical analysis and empirical test, the asymmetric effect and its cause mechanism of China's currency policy are fully investigated. Based on the detailed combing of the literature at home and abroad, based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR), a quantitative comparison is made to analyze the different responses of the eastern, central, Western and 31 provinces in the face of the impact of the unified monetary policy, and the conclusion of the asymmetric effect in the region of China's monetary policy is concluded, and the asymmetric effect in the monetary policy region is produced. The reasons are from four aspects: the optimal currency area theory, the monetary policy transmission mechanism theory, the total demand model theory of regional total supply, the particularity of the transmission of monetary policy in China. On the basis of this, the relevant policy suggestions are formed. The content of this paper is divided into nine chapters and divided into five parts. The first part is the first, second chapter, the introduction and the literature review. The first chapter introduces the research background, research significance, research methods, research ideas structure and innovation points. The second chapter introduces the related concepts involved in this article, and the main research results at home and abroad. The second part is the third chapter, for this article. Empirical part. By using vector autoregressive model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, the impact model of monetary policy (M2) on regional economic output (real GDP) and price level (GDP reduction index) is constructed. From the regional overall perspective, the three regions of East and West are analyzed on the basis of regional perspective; from the interior of the region. On the basis of the difference, 31 provinces are analyzed on the basis of the inter provincial angle of view, and the conclusion that the regional effect of monetary policy in China is asymmetric is concluded. The empirical conclusion shows that the influence of monetary policy on different provinces in the region is very significant. With the impact of monetary policy, the output growth of the central and western regions is lower than the eastern region, but the price change is higher than that of the eastern region. The third part is the fourth, fifth, six, and seven chapter, which is the analysis part of the genetic mechanism of this article. In the four aspects of the particularity of the transmission of monetary policy in China, the formation mechanism of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy is analyzed. The fourth chapter makes a statistical study on the proposition that China constitutes the best currency area by labor mobility, economic openness, product diversification and capital liquidity. The fifth chapter is based on the analysis. The theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism analyses the basic situation of the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy, and analyzes the differences in the financial development level, industrial structure and enterprise scale structure in various regions of China from the core connotation of the transmission mechanism, as well as the effect on the non opposite effect of the monetary policy region, and carries out an empirical test. The sixth chapter, based on the regional AD-AS model framework, discusses the slope of the regional total supply curve and the difference of the monetary policy multiplier of the regional total demand curve. It explains the influence of China's monetary policy on the regional economic structure, and the effect of monetary policy on the developed region is more significant. The results of the model analysis and the third chapter of this paper are positive. The seventh chapter analyzes the regional differences in the transmission mechanism of local government and the practice of China's monetary policy tools, and finds the intervention of local governments on regional finance, especially by means of real estate price transmission channels and financial credit transmission channels, and the rediscount business, deposit interest rate and deposit accuracy. The regional transmission differences of monetary policy instruments such as the rate of gold, the credit policy and the reloan policy will also lead to the regional asymmetric effect of monetary policy. The fourth part is the eighth chapter, which is the policy suggestion part. The fifth part is the ninth chapter. The fifth part is the ninth chapter, which is the conclusion department. Points out the basic conclusions, shortcomings and research prospects.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F822.0
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本文編號：1847068