本文選題：水資源承載力　切入點(diǎn)：指標(biāo)體系　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：城市人口膨脹、經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展使得城市用水緊張日益加劇,同時(shí)水生態(tài)環(huán)境不斷惡化,嚴(yán)重威脅到城市的持續(xù)發(fā)展和水資源的良性循環(huán)。區(qū)域的水資源承載力一直是國(guó)內(nèi)外研究的熱點(diǎn),特別是水資源承載力的評(píng)價(jià)方法和評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的研究。建立科學(xué)合理的水資源承載力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)方法,對(duì)于清楚認(rèn)識(shí)區(qū)域水資源承載力狀況,確定影響水資源承載力的關(guān)鍵因素,制定科學(xué)合理的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和水資源利用規(guī)劃,具有重要的理論指導(dǎo)意義和實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值。水資源承載力研究涉及水資源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、生態(tài)相互耦合的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),具有開放性和不確定性,因此評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的客觀性和可靠性不易把握�？紤]到評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的模糊性和不確定性,以及傳統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)方法權(quán)重確定的困難性,本文利用投影尋蹤技術(shù)可自動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)指標(biāo)篩選和權(quán)重確定的特點(diǎn),將其用于水資源承載力評(píng)價(jià),并應(yīng)用于四大直轄市的實(shí)證研究。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容和成果如下:首先,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外水資源承載力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)方法的研究進(jìn)展進(jìn)行了綜述,并分析了當(dāng)前指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)方法存在的問題;其次,在研究水資源承載力的內(nèi)涵、評(píng)價(jià)目的及相關(guān)理論等的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了影響水資源承載力的主要因素,提出了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的設(shè)計(jì)原則,建立了具有普適性的水資源承載力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并確定了評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及等級(jí)。最后,以上述指標(biāo)體系為基礎(chǔ),分析了投影尋蹤技術(shù)應(yīng)用于水資源承載力評(píng)價(jià)的適用性,建立了投影尋蹤等級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)模型,并將其用于四大直轄市的實(shí)證研究。采用遺傳算法對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行求解,得到最佳投影向量,進(jìn)而根據(jù)各指標(biāo)的投影特征值分量確定了影響各城市水資源承載力的“優(yōu)勢(shì)指標(biāo)”和“短板指標(biāo)”,對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了綜合分析,并從開源、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、技術(shù)、管理、生態(tài)保障等五個(gè)方面提出了提高水資源承載力的措施。評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果表明:2012年四大直轄市的水資源承載力均屬于Ⅲ級(jí)水平,其中上海接近Ⅱ級(jí)水平,天津接近Ⅳ級(jí)水平,水資源承載力按照從高到低的順序依次是上海重慶北京天津;該方法較其他綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法具有較高的穩(wěn)定性和易操作性,避免了指標(biāo)權(quán)重確定的主觀性和不確定性,而且可以同時(shí)作為指標(biāo)體系的篩選方法,優(yōu)化指標(biāo)體系,評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果具有較高的精度和區(qū)分度,可廣泛用于各種評(píng)價(jià)問題。
[Abstract]:Urban population expansion, rapid economic development, urban water tension is increasing, and the water ecological environment is deteriorating. It is a serious threat to the sustainable development of cities and the virtuous circle of water resources. The carrying capacity of regional water resources has always been a hot research topic at home and abroad. Especially, the research on the evaluation method and evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity, the establishment of scientific and reasonable evaluation index system and evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity, is helpful for the clear understanding of the status of water resources carrying capacity in the region. It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to determine the key factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources and to formulate scientific and rational regional economic development and water resources utilization planning. The research of water resources carrying capacity involves water resources, economy and society. The complex system of ecological coupling is open and uncertain, so the objectivity and reliability of evaluation results are difficult to grasp. Considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of evaluation index and the difficulty of weight determination of traditional evaluation methods, This paper uses projection pursuit technology to automatically realize the characteristics of index selection and weight determination, applies it to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, and applies it to the empirical research of four municipalities directly under the Central Government. The main research contents and results are as follows: first, This paper summarizes the research progress of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system and evaluation method at home and abroad, and analyzes the problems existing in the current index system and evaluation method. Secondly, the connotation of water resources carrying capacity is studied. On the basis of evaluation purpose and relevant theories, this paper analyzes the main factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources, puts forward the design principles of the evaluation index system, and establishes a universal evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity. Finally, based on the above index system, the applicability of projection pursuit technology in water resources carrying capacity evaluation is analyzed, and a projection pursuit grade evaluation model is established. It is applied to the empirical research of four municipalities directly under the Central Government. The genetic algorithm is used to solve the model and the optimal projection vector is obtained. Then, according to the projection eigenvalue component of each index, the "superiority index" and "short board index" which affect the water resources carrying capacity of each city are determined, and the evaluation results are analyzed synthetically, and from the aspects of open source, structural adjustment, technology, management, etc. The evaluation results show that in 2012, the water resources carrying capacity of the four municipalities directly under the Central Government belongs to the level of 鈪，

本文編號(hào)：1605944