本文關(guān)鍵詞： 航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園 規(guī)劃 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制　出處：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：航空產(chǎn)業(yè)在當(dāng)今社會中被譽(yù)為“現(xiàn)代工業(yè)之花”，其發(fā)展水平往往代表了一個(gè)國家的綜合實(shí)力。隨著大飛機(jī)項(xiàng)目的上馬和低空空域的逐步開放，我國航空產(chǎn)業(yè)迎來了高速發(fā)展期。在這樣的時(shí)代浪潮下，各城市為響應(yīng)國家戰(zhàn)略部署，提升區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，加快產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級，紛紛開展航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園規(guī)劃。紹興也在這樣的發(fā)展背景下，規(guī)劃新建航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園。但是在這樣風(fēng)風(fēng)火火的勢頭背后，也存在一系列規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文以航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園的規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為研究對象，首先通過設(shè)計(jì)基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)核對的魚刺骨模型和問卷研究，建立了航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別模型，將其應(yīng)用到紹興航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園中，獲得了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的顯性認(rèn)識；其次設(shè)計(jì)了基于粗糙集定權(quán)的模糊綜合評價(jià)模型并將其應(yīng)用到紹興航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園中，對各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子進(jìn)行權(quán)重衡量，確定了整體項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度；最后構(gòu)建了基于COSO理論的航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制體系，將其應(yīng)用到紹興航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園中，設(shè)計(jì)出紹興航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制五大體系，并增加了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測，采用灰色預(yù)測模型，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的中長期預(yù)測。 本文在傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理念的基礎(chǔ)上，通過定性與定量結(jié)合，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的把控，，過程連貫且具有說服性，有效實(shí)現(xiàn)了對航空產(chǎn)業(yè)園規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的全面管控。
[Abstract]:The aviation industry is praised as "the flower of modern industry" in the present society, its development level often represents the comprehensive strength of a country. China's aviation industry has ushered in a period of rapid development. In this era, cities in response to the national strategic deployment, promote regional economic development, accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading. Shaoxing also plans to build a new aviation industry park against such a background. But there are a series of planning risks behind the momentum of such a storm. In this paper, the planning risk of aviation industry park as the research object, first of all, through the design of risk check based on the fish puncture model and questionnaire research, establish the aviation industry park planning risk identification model. Applying it to Shaoxing Aviation Industry Park, the risk index system is obtained and the explicit understanding of risk is realized. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on rough set is designed and applied to Shaoxing Aviation Industry Park. The weight of each risk factor is measured, and the risk degree of the whole project is determined. Finally, the paper constructs the risk control system of aviation industry park based on COSO theory, applies it to Shaoxing aviation industry park, designs five risk control systems of Shaoxing aviation industry park, and increases risk prediction. The medium and long term forecast of planning risk is realized by using grey forecasting model. Based on the traditional idea of risk management, this paper realizes the control of the whole risk through the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and the process is consistent and persuasive. Effective implementation of the aviation industry park planning risk control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.5

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