【摘要】：豬肉是我國(guó)居民日常飲食中的主要肉制品,肉價(jià)的高低直接關(guān)乎著他們菜籃子支出的多寡。近幾年,我國(guó)生豬養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模逐步擴(kuò)大,出現(xiàn)了“百度養(yǎng)豬”、“高盛養(yǎng)豬”等熱門事件。然而,這過程中,也伴隨著我國(guó)生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)幅度的愈來(lái)愈大。過度的價(jià)格波動(dòng)會(huì)影響到居民的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣以及養(yǎng)殖戶特別是農(nóng)戶的收入,同時(shí)也不利于生豬養(yǎng)殖產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。因此,研究引起生豬價(jià)格變動(dòng)的因素以及生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)劇烈的原因十分有必要。 本文首先指出我國(guó)生豬養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)的特征：低長(zhǎng)期需求彈性與高長(zhǎng)期供給彈性；無(wú)退出進(jìn)入壁壘；養(yǎng)殖主體以農(nóng)戶為主,養(yǎng)殖模式以農(nóng)戶規(guī)�；B(yǎng)殖為主。進(jìn)而,分析了我國(guó)近幾年生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)的特征：顯著的節(jié)假日及季節(jié)特征、發(fā)散型蛛網(wǎng)。接下來(lái),本文從內(nèi)部傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制和外部沖擊機(jī)制兩方面,分析了農(nóng)戶規(guī)�；B(yǎng)殖背景下我國(guó)生豬價(jià)格變動(dòng)的影響因素。之后,對(duì)經(jīng)“季節(jié)調(diào)整”的數(shù)據(jù)建立回歸模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)：養(yǎng)殖戶預(yù)期及人力成本對(duì)生豬價(jià)格的影響并不顯著,而仔豬價(jià)格、玉米價(jià)格、活雞價(jià)格、居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、春節(jié)與生豬價(jià)格呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,驗(yàn)證了我國(guó)生豬價(jià)格的第一個(gè)特征。最后,本文對(duì)生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)幅度與農(nóng)戶規(guī)�；B(yǎng)殖占比提高之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)戶規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖占比的提高是生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)幅度增大的Granger原因之一,從而驗(yàn)證了發(fā)散型蛛網(wǎng)特征。 農(nóng)戶規(guī)�；B(yǎng)殖占比的提高引起生豬價(jià)格波動(dòng)劇烈是由農(nóng)戶資金有限、信息傳導(dǎo)不暢、對(duì)疫病防疫與處理能力弱以及市場(chǎng)無(wú)壁壘等因素引起的,所以,為了穩(wěn)定我國(guó)生豬價(jià)格,本文提出以下幾點(diǎn)建議：一,盡快推進(jìn)農(nóng)地、宅基地、活物抵押；二,工程防疫與獸醫(yī)防疫相結(jié)合；三,建立生豬養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)的準(zhǔn)入準(zhǔn)出制度；四,開發(fā)清潔生產(chǎn)技術(shù)和能源化利用技術(shù)防治污染；五,適時(shí)推出生豬期貨。
[Abstract]:Pork is the main meat product in the daily diet of Chinese residents, and the price of meat is directly related to the amount of their basket expenditure. In recent years, the scale of pig breeding in China has gradually expanded, such as Baidu Pig raising, Goldman Sachs Pig raising and so on. However, in this process, along with the increasing fluctuation of pig prices in China. Excessive price fluctuation will affect the consumption habits of residents and the income of farmers, especially farmers, at the same time, it will not be conducive to the healthy development of pig breeding industry. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors that cause the change of pig price and the reason why the price of live pig fluctuates violently. This paper first points out the characteristics of pig breeding market in China: low long-term demand elasticity and high long-term supply elasticity; no exit barriers to entry; farmers as the main breeding body and large-scale farming model as the main breeding model. Furthermore, the characteristics of pig price fluctuation in China in recent years are analyzed: significant holiday and seasonal characteristics, divergent spider webs. Then, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of pig price change in China under the background of large-scale farming from two aspects of internal transmission mechanism and external shock mechanism. After that, the regression model was established for the "seasonally adjusted" data, and it was found that the effects of farmers' expectations and manpower costs on pig prices were not significant, while piglet prices, corn prices, live chicken prices, and consumer price indices were not significantly affected by such factors as piglet price, corn price, live chicken price and consumer price index. Spring Festival has a positive correlation with pig price, which validates the first characteristic of pig price in China. Finally, the relationship between the fluctuation of pig price and the proportion of large-scale farming was tested by co-integration test and Granger causality test. It was found that the increase in the proportion of large-scale farming was one of the reasons for the increase in the fluctuation of pig price, which confirmed the characteristics of divergent spider webs. The sharp fluctuation of pig price caused by the increase of the proportion of large-scale farming is caused by the limited funds of farmers, the poor transmission of information, the weak ability of epidemic prevention and treatment, and the absence of barriers to the market. Therefore, in order to stabilize the price of live pigs in China, This paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, promote farmland, homestead, living mortgage as soon as possible; Second, the combination of engineering epidemic prevention and veterinary epidemic prevention; third, the establishment of the pig breeding market admission quasi-export system; fourth, the development of cleaner production technology and energy utilization technology to prevent pollution; fifth, timely launch of live pig futures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7

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本文編號(hào)：2451839