【摘要】：本文以風(fēng)電標(biāo)桿電價(jià)政策為例,構(gòu)建中國(guó)可再生能源政策量化評(píng)價(jià)的分析框架。借鑒實(shí)物期權(quán)的基本思想,本文通過隨機(jī)動(dòng)態(tài)遞歸構(gòu)建了風(fēng)電標(biāo)桿電價(jià)政策量化評(píng)價(jià)模型,將傳統(tǒng)能源市場(chǎng)的不確定性和中國(guó)可再生能源總量規(guī)劃的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況結(jié)合起來,同時(shí)市場(chǎng)在各期根據(jù)收益最大化對(duì)市場(chǎng)環(huán)境做出反應(yīng),決定是否投入技術(shù)研發(fā)以降低未來風(fēng)電開發(fā)成本。應(yīng)用這個(gè)分析框架,本文對(duì)中國(guó)風(fēng)電標(biāo)桿電價(jià)政策進(jìn)行了量化評(píng)價(jià)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)目前的標(biāo)桿電價(jià)水平低于全社會(huì)政策收益最大化的最優(yōu)水平,而且考慮風(fēng)電碳減排正外部性下的最優(yōu)標(biāo)桿電價(jià)高于忽略外部性的情形。(2)單純從經(jīng)濟(jì)利益上考慮的中國(guó)風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)尚無法僅僅依靠標(biāo)桿電價(jià)政策而形成一個(gè)純市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)向的產(chǎn)業(yè)安排。(3)將碳交易市場(chǎng)與風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈對(duì)接起來的結(jié)構(gòu)是能夠通過市場(chǎng)自生的。
[Abstract]:Taking the benchmark price policy of wind power as an example, this paper constructs an analytical framework for quantitative evaluation of renewable energy policy in China. With reference to the basic idea of real option, this paper constructs a quantitative evaluation model of wind power benchmark price policy through random dynamic recursion, which combines the uncertainty of traditional energy market with the reality of total renewable energy planning in China. At the same time, the market responds to the market environment according to the profit maximization in each period, and decides whether to invest the technology research and development to reduce the cost of wind power development in the future. Using this analytical framework, this paper quantitatively evaluates the price policy of wind power benchmark in China. The results show that: (1) the current benchmark price level is lower than the optimal level of maximizing the income of the whole social policy. Considering the positive externality of carbon abatement of wind power, the optimal benchmark price is higher than that of neglecting externality. (2) the wind power industry in China can not only rely on the benchmarking price policy to form a pure market. (3) the structure of carbon trading market and wind power industry chain can be generated through the market.
【作者單位】： 閩江學(xué)院新華都商學(xué)院;廈門大學(xué)中國(guó)能源政策研究院能源經(jīng)濟(jì)與能源政策協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院中國(guó)能源經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;
【基金】：新華都商學(xué)院能源經(jīng)濟(jì)與低碳發(fā)展研究院低碳項(xiàng)目 國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目(No.12&ZD059) 能源基金會(huì)中國(guó)可持續(xù)能源項(xiàng)目(G-1311-19436) 教育部重大項(xiàng)目(No.10 JBG 013)
【分類號(hào)】：F206

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