本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國燃煤電廠CCS改造投資建模和補(bǔ)貼政策評(píng)價(jià)　出處：《中國人口.資源與環(huán)境》2014年07期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： CCS技術(shù) 碳排放稅 成本節(jié)約 實(shí)物期權(quán) LSM

【摘要】：在應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的背景下,是否對(duì)已經(jīng)投入運(yùn)營的燃煤電廠進(jìn)行改造,加裝碳捕獲與封存技術(shù)(CCS),是一個(gè)重要的低碳投資決策問題。本文針對(duì)已投入運(yùn)營的燃煤電廠進(jìn)行CCS改造的投資決策問題,從成本節(jié)約的角度出發(fā),綜合考慮CCS面臨的諸多不確定因素,將序貫投資決策的實(shí)物期權(quán)方法與Monte-Carlo模擬相結(jié)合,建立了基于偏均衡分析的CCS投資評(píng)價(jià)模型,研究電力企業(yè)投資CCS技術(shù)改造現(xiàn)有火電可以帶來的成本節(jié)約收益價(jià)值和溫室氣體減排量,結(jié)合案例,論述了燃煤電廠投資CCS改造的期權(quán)價(jià)值和投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。并應(yīng)用該模型分析了補(bǔ)貼政策對(duì)CCS投資行為的影響。模擬計(jì)算結(jié)果顯示:在現(xiàn)有參考碳價(jià)格水平下,基準(zhǔn)燃煤電廠投資改造CCS的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很大,CCS改造投資被放棄的比例接近35%,可見現(xiàn)有的技術(shù)水平和政策框架不足以促進(jìn)企業(yè)對(duì)現(xiàn)有燃煤電廠進(jìn)行CCS改造投資。對(duì)比政府補(bǔ)貼投資和補(bǔ)貼發(fā)電兩種政策的效果,在總預(yù)算補(bǔ)貼額度較小時(shí),政府補(bǔ)貼企業(yè)的研發(fā)投入效果要優(yōu)于直接補(bǔ)貼發(fā)電的效果。從評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果看:首先,在CCS技術(shù)發(fā)展初期,我國政府應(yīng)該側(cè)重鼓勵(lì)大型電力企業(yè)對(duì)CCS技術(shù)的消化學(xué)習(xí),通過補(bǔ)貼研發(fā)投入,降低技術(shù)使用成本,為CCS技術(shù)未來的大規(guī)模采用打下基礎(chǔ)。其次,一個(gè)較為有效的碳排放交易機(jī)制的構(gòu)建,可以在長期促進(jìn)國內(nèi)電廠對(duì)CCS進(jìn)行改造投資。
[Abstract]:In the context of responding to climate change, whether carbon dioxide capture and storage technology (CCS) is an important low-carbon investment decision problem is to transform coal-fired power plants that have been put into operation. Aiming at the problem of investment decision has been put into operation in the coal-fired power plant CCS transformation, starting from the cost saving point of view, considering the CCS faces many uncertain factors, the real option method of sequential investment decision combined with Monte-Carlo simulations, set up a CCS investment evaluation model based on partial equilibrium analysis, the Research of electric power enterprise CCS investment technical transformation of existing power can bring cost savings and return values of greenhouse gas emission reductions, combined with the case, discusses the option value of investment risk and investment transformation of coal-fired power plant CCS. This model is used to analyze the effect of subsidy policy on CCS investment behavior. The simulation results show that: in the existing reference carbon price, benchmark investment in coal-fired power plant transformation of CCS high risk CCS transformation investment abandoned the ratio of nearly 35%, visible of existing technology and policy framework to promote the CCS modification of the existing coal-fired power plant enterprise investment. The effect of the two policies of government subsidy investment and subsidy generation is compared. When the total budget subsidy is small, the effect of R & D investment of government subsidy enterprises is better than that of direct subsidy generation. From the evaluation results, first of all, in the early stage of CCS technology development, our government should focus on encouraging the digestion and learning of CCS technology by large power enterprises, and reduce the cost of technology utilization by subsidizing R & D investment, so as to lay a foundation for the large-scale adoption of CCS technology in the future. Secondly, the construction of a more effective carbon emission trading mechanism can promote the investment of CCS in domestic power plants for a long time.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院科技政策與管理科學(xué)研究所能源與環(huán)境政策研究中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金“能源-環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)中的預(yù)測理論方法及應(yīng)用”(編號(hào):70825001);“面向全球資源的石油資源經(jīng)濟(jì)安全管理理論與實(shí)證研究”(編號(hào):70033115);“不確定條件下低碳能源技術(shù)投資綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型理論與應(yīng)用研究”(編號(hào):71273253)
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F426.61
【正文快照】： 碳捕獲與封存技術(shù)(carbon capture and storage,CCS)的應(yīng)用將會(huì)直接影響未來溫室氣體減排量的大小,尤其是在以化石能源作為主要能源的發(fā)展中國家[1-3]。CCS對(duì)于能源結(jié)構(gòu)以煤為主的我國來說,具有十分特殊的意義,它可以保證繼續(xù)使用煤炭等化石能源并減少溫室氣體排放,是十分有潛

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