【摘要】：糧食安全乃民生之本,實現(xiàn)糧食自給自足,才能保障社會經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,進(jìn)而能夠立足于國內(nèi)市場,在復(fù)雜多變的國際形勢中站穩(wěn)腳跟。糧食安全問題一直是保證國家社會安定的基石,是當(dāng)下需要面臨的三大經(jīng)濟(jì)安全中的首要問題,決定著國家能否自立、人民能否自強(qiáng)、社會能否穩(wěn)定、經(jīng)濟(jì)能否發(fā)展。目前,新疆正處在糧食提高產(chǎn)能的關(guān)鍵時期,面臨著重大歷史性機(jī)遇,土地資源豐富決定了其巨大的糧食生產(chǎn)潛力,是最具有糧食增產(chǎn)空間的省區(qū),國家欲把新疆打造成全國糧食后備基地,充分發(fā)揮其豐富土地資源的優(yōu)勢,確保十三億人的糧食安全長久持續(xù)地得到保障。新疆糧食安全不僅具有經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略意義,同時還具有政治戰(zhàn)略意義,因此,新疆糧食安全對國家安全的保障至關(guān)重要。本研究以新疆全區(qū)為研究對象,在對研究區(qū)進(jìn)行自然條件、氣候水文、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)及糧食安全現(xiàn)狀研究的基礎(chǔ)上,采用熵權(quán)法計算得到權(quán)重,利用物元模型對新疆2006-2015年的糧食安全發(fā)展態(tài)勢進(jìn)行時空序列的綜合評價,包括對各指標(biāo)層(生產(chǎn)、消費、流通)與單個指標(biāo)的安全狀況評價;同時,采用障礙度模型,經(jīng)過診斷得到阻礙新疆糧食安全發(fā)展的障礙因子,理清影響糧食安全發(fā)展的主導(dǎo)因素,最后,結(jié)合新疆區(qū)域特征,為糧食安全可持續(xù)發(fā)展提出具有針對性的政策建議。主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)2006-2015年新疆糧食安全等級變化:基本安全(III)-基本安全(III)-基本安全(III) 比較安全(II)-安全(I)-比較安全(II)-比較安全(II)-安全(I)-安全(I)-安全(I),新疆糧食安全狀態(tài)整體水平較好,沒有年份處于臨界安全、不安全級別,且相對于基本安全的關(guān)聯(lián)度逐漸減弱,而相對于安全等級、比較安全等級的關(guān)聯(lián)度在增強(qiáng),說明十年間新疆糧食安全狀態(tài)發(fā)展態(tài)勢良好。(2)2006-2015年新疆糧食安全各因素層(糧食生產(chǎn)、糧食消費、糧食流通)關(guān)聯(lián)度等級均不同程度地上升,從基本安全等級跳躍到安全等級,大部分所處狀態(tài)不穩(wěn)定,都有轉(zhuǎn)化的可能,表明各因素層發(fā)展態(tài)勢良好。(3)新疆糧食安全狀況空間存在差異,全區(qū)實現(xiàn)供需平衡。糧食產(chǎn)區(qū)狀況最安全,有昌吉州、塔城地區(qū)、伊犁州等;糧食銷區(qū)如烏魯木齊市、克拉瑪依市等,由于其糧食消費、流通安全狀況良好,從而實現(xiàn)全區(qū)糧食安全。(4)新疆糧食安全主要的障礙因素是糧食生產(chǎn)因素,糧食生產(chǎn)因素的障礙度逐漸減弱,糧食消費與糧食流通的障礙度逐漸加強(qiáng),2006-2009年糧食生產(chǎn)因素的第一障礙因子是農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化總動力、第二障礙因子是化肥施用量;2010-2015年影響糧食安全的主要障礙因子主要是成災(zāi)面積占受災(zāi)面積比,人口自然增長率。(5)新疆糧食安全的發(fā)展應(yīng)當(dāng)結(jié)合各地區(qū)的區(qū)域性特點,發(fā)揮資源優(yōu)勢,在政策有利支撐的條件下,提高糧食生產(chǎn)能力,實現(xiàn)新疆糧食安全的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Food security is the foundation of people's livelihood. Only by realizing food self-sufficiency can we ensure the steady development of social economy, and then be able to gain a firm foothold in the complex and changeable international situation based on the domestic market. The problem of food security has always been the cornerstone of ensuring the social stability of the country, and it is the first of the three economic security issues that need to be faced at present, which determines whether the country can stand on its own feet, whether the people can strengthen themselves, whether the society can be stable, and whether the economy can develop. At present, Xinjiang is in a critical period of grain production capacity, and is facing great historical opportunities. Rich land resources determine its huge grain production potential, and it is the province with the most room for grain production. The state wants to turn Xinjiang into a national grain reserve base, give full play to its advantages of rich land resources, and ensure that the food safety of 1.3 billion people is guaranteed for a long time. Xinjiang food security has not only economic strategic significance, but also political strategic significance. Therefore, Xinjiang food security is very important to the guarantee of national security. This study takes the whole region of Xinjiang as the research object, on the basis of the study of natural conditions, climate, hydrological, social economy and food security in the study area, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight, and the matter-element model is used to evaluate the development trend of food security in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015, including the evaluation of the security status of each index layer (production, consumption, circulation) and a single index. At the same time, the obstacle degree model is used to obtain the obstacle factors that hinder the development of food security in Xinjiang, and the leading factors affecting the development of food security are clarified. Finally, combined with the regional characteristics of Xinjiang, some targeted policy suggestions are put forward for the sustainable development of food security. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the change of food security grade in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015: basic security (III)-basic safety (III) / relatively safe (II)-safe (I)-relatively safe (II)-safer (II)-safe (I)-safe (I), Xinjiang food security status is better, no year is in the critical safety level, unsafe level, And the correlation degree relative to the basic security is gradually weakened, but compared with the security grade, the correlation degree of the comparative security level is strengthening, which indicates that the development trend of Xinjiang's food security is good in the past ten years. (2) the correlation degree of various factors (grain production, grain consumption, grain circulation) in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015 has increased to varying degrees, jumping from the basic safety level to the safety level. Most of the states are unstable, and there is a possibility of transformation, which indicates that the development trend of each factor layer is good. (3) there are differences in the spatial situation of food security in Xinjiang, and the balance between supply and demand is realized in the whole region. Grain production areas are the safest, including Changji, Tacheng, Yili and so on. Grain marketing areas such as Urumqi and Karamay have achieved food security in the whole region because of their good grain consumption and circulation security. (4) the main obstacle factors to food security in Xinjiang are grain production factors, the obstacle degree of grain production factors is gradually weakened, and the obstacles to grain consumption and grain circulation are gradually strengthened. The first obstacle factor of grain production factors from 2006 to 2009 is the total driving force of agricultural mechanization. The second obstacle factor is the amount of chemical fertilizer. The main obstacle factors affecting food security from 2010 to 2015 are the proportion of disaster area to affected area and the natural growth rate of population. (5) the development of food security in Xinjiang should combine the regional characteristics of various regions, give full play to the advantages of resources, improve the grain production capacity and realize the sustainable development of food security in Xinjiang under the condition of favorable policy support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.11

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