【摘要】：本文基于甘肅省各市(州)2001-2014年耕地產(chǎn)出投入要素數(shù)據(jù),采用SPSS20.0,改進后的收入模型、盧卡斯溢出模型及基于MATLAB7.0灰色預(yù)測GM(1,1)模型分析方法,對甘肅省各市(州)農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量及其對耕地產(chǎn)出貢獻率進行定量分析,同時對2015-2020年甘肅省各市(州)耕地產(chǎn)出效率和農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量進行預(yù)測。本文經(jīng)過研究,得出如下結(jié)論:⑴對農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本內(nèi)涵做出界定。⑵構(gòu)建農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量模型,并在分析甘肅省各市(州)耕地產(chǎn)出率及其投入要素基礎(chǔ)上,對盧卡斯溢出模型進行改進。⑶甘肅省各市(州)2001-2014年農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本積累總體屬于遞增趨勢,但各市(州)之間的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量積累存在差異。其中,定西市、隴南市、臨夏州和甘南州為我省農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量偏低市(州),分別為20448.88元、20259.98元、21204.88元和24000.50元;慶陽市、平?jīng)鍪�、白銀市、天水市為我省農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量較低市,分別為29442.35元、30242.56元、32049.56元、31390.67元;張掖市、武威市、金昌市、蘭州市、酒泉市為我省農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量較高市,分別為59747.53元、48572.50元、65546.34元、55312.94、81269.63元;嘉峪關(guān)市的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量為109204.15元,是我省農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量偏高市。⑷農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本這一投入要素對耕地產(chǎn)出效率擁有較高的貢獻率和影響率。由于各市(州)的耕地資源稟賦及現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟生產(chǎn)發(fā)展存在不同,各市(州)之間農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本對耕地產(chǎn)出率的貢獻率依然存在差異。其中,定西市、隴南市、臨夏州和甘南州的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本對其耕地產(chǎn)出效率的貢獻率偏低;慶陽市、平?jīng)鍪�、白銀市和天水市的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本的貢獻率較低;張掖市、武威市、金昌市、蘭州市、酒泉市的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本的貢獻率較高;嘉峪關(guān)市的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本貢獻率偏高。⑸對2015-2020年耕地產(chǎn)出率預(yù)測結(jié)果分析可知:白銀市、定西市和甘南州的耕地產(chǎn)出效率增長緩慢;平?jīng)鍪�、慶陽市、隴南市、臨夏州的耕地產(chǎn)出效率增長較緩慢;張掖市、武威市、天水市、金昌市、酒泉市和蘭州市的耕地產(chǎn)出效率增長較快;嘉峪關(guān)市的耕地產(chǎn)出效率增長最快;對2015-2020年農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本存量預(yù)測結(jié)果分析可知:定西市、隴南市、臨夏州和甘南州的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本增長緩慢;慶陽市、平?jīng)鍪�、白銀市、天水市的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本增長較緩慢;張掖市、武威市、金昌市、蘭州市、酒泉市的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本增長較快;嘉峪關(guān)市的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員人力資本增長最快。⑹本文通過將農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員的人力資本作為研究提高耕地產(chǎn)出率的一種投入要素,并進行檢驗驗證,得出其對提高耕地產(chǎn)出率有著極大的貢獻率和影響率,故我認為建立切實能夠提高耕地產(chǎn)出率的農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員的人力資本投資機制,是保障糧食安全、增加耕地產(chǎn)出率的重大意義之所在。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the input factors of the cultivated land output from 2001 to 2014 in the cities of Gansu province (state), the paper uses the SPSS10.0, the improved income model, the Lucas overflow model and the analysis method of the GM (1,1) model based on the MATLAB7.0 gray prediction. This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the human capital stock and the contribution rate of the cultivated land output to the agricultural workers in various cities of Gansu province, and forecasts the output efficiency of the cultivated land and the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in the counties of Gansu Province by the period of 2015 to 2020. In this paper, the following conclusions are drawn: the definition of the connotation of human capital of agricultural practitioners is given. Based on the analysis of the yield and the input factors of the cultivated land in various cities of Gansu province, the model of Lucas's overflow is improved. The accumulation of human capital of agricultural workers in various cities (states) of Gansu Province in 2001-2014 is an increasing trend, but there is a difference in the accumulation of human capital stock among the agricultural workers in each city (state). Among them, in the cities of Dingxi, Longnan, Linxia and Ganzhou, the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in our province is low (state), which is 20448. 88 yuan, 20259. 98 yuan, 21204. 88 yuan and 244,000 yuan. The city of Qingyang, Pingliang, Baiyin and Tianshui is the lower city of the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in our province. It is 29442. 35 yuan, 30242. 56 yuan, 32049. 56 yuan, 31390. 67 yuan, Zhangye City, Wuwei City, Jinchang City, Lanzhou City, Jiuquan City is the high city of the human capital of the agricultural workers in our province, it is 59747.53 yuan, 48572. 50 yuan, 65546. 34 yuan, 55312. 94, 81269. 63 yuan, and the human capital stock of the agricultural workers in Jiayuan City is 1094.15 yuan, It is the high-level city of human capital of the agricultural practitioners in our province. The input factors of human capital of agricultural workers in China have higher contribution rate and impact rate to the efficiency of cultivated land output. The contribution rate of the human capital to the yield of the cultivated land in the agricultural workers among the cities (states) is still different due to the different natural resources of the cultivated land and the development of the modern agricultural economy in each city (state). In the cities of Dingxi, Longnan, Linxia and Ganzhou, the contribution rate of human capital to the output of cultivated land is low; the contribution rate of human capital of agricultural workers in Qingyang City, Pingliang City, Baiyin City and Tianshui City is lower; Zhangye City, Wuwei City and Jinchang City, In Lanzhou, the contribution rate of human capital of agricultural workers in Jiuquan City is higher, and the contribution rate of human capital of agriculture in Jiayuan City is higher. According to the analysis of the forecast results of the cultivated land in 2015-2020, the output efficiency of the cultivated land in the city of Baiyin, Dingxi and Ganzhou is slow; the output efficiency of the cultivated land in the city of Pingliang, Qingyang, Longnan and Linxia is slow; Zhangye City, Wuwei City, Tianshui City and Jinchang City, The output efficiency of the cultivated land in Jiuquan City and Lanzhou is relatively fast, and the output efficiency of the cultivated land in Jiayuan is the fastest, and it can be found that the human capital of agriculture in the city of Dingxi, Longnan, Linxia and Gangnan is slow. In Qingyang City, Pingliang City, Baiyin City, Tianshui City, the human capital growth of agricultural workers is relatively slow; in Zhangye, Wuwei, Jinchang, Lanzhou, Jiuquan City, the human capital of agricultural workers is growing faster; and the human capital of agriculture in Jiayuan is the fastest. In this paper, by using the human capital of the agricultural practitioner as an input factor for the study of increasing the yield of the cultivated land, and the verification is carried out, it is concluded that it has a great contribution to the improvement of the yield of the cultivated land and the influence rate. Therefore, I think it is of great significance to establish the human capital investment mechanism of the agricultural workers who can improve the yield of the cultivated land, which is of great significance to guarantee the food security and increase the yield of the cultivated land.
【學位授予單位】：甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.5

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