【摘要】：二十一世紀(jì)以來(lái),隨著我國(guó)人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展雖然促進(jìn)了綜合國(guó)力的不斷增強(qiáng),但卻導(dǎo)致耕地人均占有量逐年持續(xù)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì),嚴(yán)重影響了耕地的后備資源供給。因此,保障我國(guó)糧食安全成為了廣大學(xué)者研究的主要問(wèn)題。烏克蘭向來(lái)被稱為“歐洲糧倉(cāng)”,擁有世界面積第一大的黑土地。在蘇聯(lián)解體后,烏克蘭農(nóng)業(yè)曾經(jīng)一度陷于蕭條之中。盡管近年來(lái)烏克蘭農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)形式已有所恢復(fù),但仍面臨資金缺乏、技術(shù)老化等問(wèn)題。近幾年,中國(guó)與烏克蘭在農(nóng)業(yè)投資方面合作頻繁,中國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)投資可以為烏克蘭提供必要的財(cái)政和技術(shù)援助,而烏克蘭可以為解決我國(guó)耕地后備資源不足的問(wèn)題提供一定的支持。本文以烏克蘭耕地作為研究對(duì)象,基于2000年、2010年兩期全球30m地表覆蓋遙感制圖成果,利用從國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局和烏克蘭統(tǒng)計(jì)局網(wǎng)上獲取的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),從國(guó)家、州級(jí)、格網(wǎng)三個(gè)不同尺度對(duì)烏克蘭的土地利用現(xiàn)狀及耕地變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了全方位的分析,并利用馬爾可夫模型對(duì)未來(lái)幾年的土地利用情況進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。具體內(nèi)容分為以下部分：第一部分為研究背景及基礎(chǔ)理論概述。這部分主要從研究方法、研究尺度、驅(qū)動(dòng)力、地表覆蓋數(shù)據(jù)集等四個(gè)角度介紹了國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究進(jìn)展。同時(shí),在本部分的最后簡(jiǎn)單闡述了本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容、采用的基本方法和總體技術(shù)路線等。第二部分為研究區(qū)概況的介紹和數(shù)據(jù)的處理工作。這部分主要介紹了烏克蘭的自然、社會(huì)概況,概略的探討了全球30m地表覆蓋遙感制圖過(guò)程,并對(duì)其中耕地的提取標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和方法進(jìn)行了較為詳細(xì)分析研究。第三部分為土地利用變化分析及預(yù)測(cè)研究。本文首次從國(guó)家尺度、州級(jí)尺度、格網(wǎng)尺度三個(gè)不同的尺度層面,采用耕地利用變化的幅度、耕地利用變化動(dòng)態(tài)度、耕地相對(duì)變化率、耕地變化速率、耕地墾殖率、耕地利用程度的變化和耕地重心遷移等模型,分別從縱向和橫向分析了烏克蘭的耕地動(dòng)態(tài)變化規(guī)律,并采用土地利用類型轉(zhuǎn)化模型,對(duì)烏克蘭各地類之間相互轉(zhuǎn)化的時(shí)空動(dòng)態(tài)變化規(guī)律進(jìn)行了分析,從而全面把握烏克蘭耕地利用變化規(guī)律。第四部分研究了引起耕地變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)力因子�？紤]資料的可獲取性,本文從國(guó)家尺度、州級(jí)尺度兩個(gè)不同的尺度層面,分別對(duì)影響烏克蘭耕地利用變化的自然和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因子進(jìn)行定性分析,其中國(guó)家尺度選取了12個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)因子、州級(jí)尺度選取了7個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)因子進(jìn)行主成分分析,通過(guò)分析得出影響烏克蘭耕地利用變化的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力以及研究期間驅(qū)動(dòng)力綜合變化。最后,應(yīng)用馬爾可夫模型預(yù)測(cè)研究區(qū)土地未來(lái)的發(fā)展走向,在一定程度上掌握烏克蘭耕地利用變化規(guī)律,以便于制定相應(yīng)的對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 century, with the rapid development of population and economy in our country, although the comprehensive national strength has been continuously enhanced, it has led to the continuous negative growth of the per capita share of cultivated land year by year, which has seriously affected the supply of the reserve resources of cultivated land. Therefore, the protection of food security in China has become the main problem of the majority of scholars. Ukraine has long been known as the "European granary", with the world's largest black land area. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukrainian agriculture was once in a depression. Although Ukraine's agricultural production has recovered in recent years, it still faces problems such as lack of funds and aging technology. In recent years, cooperation between China and Ukraine in agricultural investment has been frequent. China's agricultural investment can provide Ukraine with the necessary financial and technical assistance. Ukraine can provide some support to solve the shortage of cultivated land reserve resources. This paper takes the farmland of Ukraine as the research object, based on the results of the global 30 m land cover remote sensing mapping in 2000 and 2010, using the statistical data obtained from the national statistical office and the Ukrainian statistical office online, from the national, state level, The present situation of land use and the trend of cultivated land change in Ukraine are analyzed comprehensively by three different scales of grid and the land use in the coming years is forecasted by using Markov model. Specific content is divided into the following parts: the first part is the research background and basic theory overview. This part mainly introduces the research progress in the related fields at home and abroad from four angles: research method, research scale, driving force, surface cover data set and so on. At the end of this part, the research contents, basic methods and overall technical route are briefly described. The second part is the introduction of the research area and the data processing. This part mainly introduces the natural and social situation of Ukraine, discusses the process of remote sensing mapping of 30m land cover in the world, and makes a detailed analysis and study on the standard and method of extraction of cultivated land. The third part is land use change analysis and forecast research. In this paper, for the first time, from three different scale levels of national scale, state scale, grid scale, the extent of cultivated land use change, the dynamic degree of cultivated land use change, the relative change rate of cultivated land, the rate of change of cultivated land, the rate of cultivated land reclamation, Based on the models of cultivated land use degree change and cultivated land barycenter migration, this paper analyzes the dynamic change law of farmland in Ukraine from the vertical and horizontal aspects, and adopts the land use type transformation model. This paper analyzes the temporal and spatial dynamic change law of the transformation of different classes in Ukraine, so as to grasp the change law of farmland utilization in Ukraine. The fourth part studies the driving force factors that cause the change of cultivated land. Considering the availability of data, this paper makes a qualitative analysis of the natural and social economic factors that affect the change of farmland use in Ukraine from two different scale levels: national scale and cantonal scale. Among them, 12 driving factors were selected at the national scale and 7 driving factors were selected at the state scale for principal component analysis. The main driving forces affecting the change of farmland use in Ukraine and the comprehensive driving force changes during the study period were obtained. Finally, Markov model is applied to predict the future development trend of land in the study area, and to grasp the change law of farmland use in Ukraine to a certain extent, in order to make corresponding countermeasures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F351.13

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