【摘要】：近年來極端氣候不斷增加,自然災(zāi)害頻發(fā),災(zāi)害類型呈現(xiàn)出多樣化趨勢(shì),災(zāi)害的危害逐漸凸顯,尤其是在生態(tài)環(huán)境惡劣、自然環(huán)境復(fù)雜、地貌類型多樣、多為偏遠(yuǎn)深山的典型連片特困區(qū),呈現(xiàn)災(zāi)頻災(zāi)重、災(zāi)貧疊加效應(yīng)顯著和災(zāi)害影響突出等特點(diǎn)。在這種背景下,基于災(zāi)害的視角,如何科學(xué)評(píng)估自然災(zāi)害的災(zāi)情狀況及其與貧困的關(guān)系,不僅對(duì)減輕因?yàn)?zāi)致貧、返貧效應(yīng)具有非常重要的意義,也有助于科學(xué)有效地推進(jìn)反貧困戰(zhàn)略的穩(wěn)步實(shí)施以及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。論文選取了典型連片特困區(qū)武陵山片區(qū)為研究區(qū),以自然災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)理論與貧困理論為基礎(chǔ),分別系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建了研究區(qū)自然災(zāi)害綜合災(zāi)情測(cè)算指標(biāo)體系和綜合發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系,利用博弈論模型對(duì)3種主客觀賦權(quán)法(層次分析法、熵權(quán)法和變異系數(shù)法)獲取的權(quán)重值進(jìn)行最優(yōu)化組合,并對(duì)研究區(qū)單災(zāi)種與多災(zāi)種的綜合災(zāi)情大小進(jìn)行測(cè)算,根據(jù)多維貧困與可持續(xù)發(fā)展內(nèi)涵的相互關(guān)系,從社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和自然3個(gè)維度,構(gòu)建了9個(gè)層面,共32項(xiàng)具體指標(biāo)的綜合發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系,對(duì)研究區(qū)多維貧困程度進(jìn)行測(cè)算,在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用耦合協(xié)調(diào)性評(píng)價(jià)方法,探究了自然災(zāi)害與多維貧困之間的耦合關(guān)系及兩者之間具體的組合關(guān)系。通過對(duì)2011年各單災(zāi)種(洪澇、干旱、風(fēng)雹、低溫冷凍和雪災(zāi)與山體滑坡和泥石流)的綜合災(zāi)情指數(shù)INDI與2012年多維貧困指數(shù)的耦合分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)2011年研究區(qū)單災(zāi)種干旱和洪澇災(zāi)害的外延性較大,對(duì)貧困產(chǎn)生了較大影響。從自然災(zāi)害多災(zāi)種角度,根據(jù)多災(zāi)種災(zāi)情大小和多維貧困程度類別組合進(jìn)行相互關(guān)系研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)2011年多災(zāi)種綜合災(zāi)情大小與2012年多維貧困程度屬于中度以上耦合協(xié)調(diào)的縣市區(qū)約占研究區(qū)總數(shù)的64.79%,整體上兩者的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度較高,兩者的耦合度C和耦合協(xié)調(diào)度D在空間上呈現(xiàn)出“大分散,小聚集”右傾斜“山”形分布格局。根據(jù)災(zāi)害與貧困的耦合關(guān)系,將兩者的組合類型主要概括為四種:(1)集中分布在湖南和貴州片區(qū)的大災(zāi)(較大災(zāi)或中災(zāi))—高貧(較高貧或中貧)型,災(zāi)害與貧困在空間分布上具有較高的一致性。(2)大災(zāi)(較大災(zāi)或中災(zāi))—較低貧(低貧型),該類型縣市區(qū)主要集中分布在湖北和湖南片區(qū),貴州和重慶片區(qū)也稍有分布。(3)較小災(zāi)(小災(zāi))—高貧(較高貧或中貧)型,主要分布在湖南片區(qū),湖北片區(qū)略有涉及。(4)較小災(zāi)(小災(zāi))—較低貧(低貧型):在湖南、貴州、湖北和重慶均有分布。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the extreme climate is increasing, natural disasters occur frequently, the types of disasters show a diversified trend, and the hazards of disasters are gradually highlighted, especially in the harsh ecological environment, the complex natural environment, the variety of geomorphological types. Most of them are typical remote and deep mountain areas, which are characterized by heavy disaster frequency, significant superposition effect of disaster poverty and prominent disaster impact. In this context, based on the disaster perspective, how to scientifically assess the disaster situation and its relationship with poverty is of great significance not only to alleviate the poverty caused by the disaster, but also to return to poverty. It also helps to promote the steady implementation of anti-poverty strategy and the sustainable development of social economy. Based on the theory of natural disaster system and the theory of poverty, this paper selects the Wulingshan region as the research area, and sets up the comprehensive disaster evaluation index system and the comprehensive development index system respectively. By using game theory model, the weight values obtained by three subjective and objective weighting methods (AHP, entropy weight and coefficient of variation) are optimized, and the comprehensive disaster situation of single and multiple disasters in the study area is calculated. According to the relationship between multidimensional poverty and sustainable development, this paper constructs a comprehensive development index system of nine dimensions, including 32 specific indicators, from the three dimensions of society, economy and nature, and measures the degree of multidimensional poverty in the study area. On the basis of this, the coupling and coordination evaluation method is used to explore the coupling relationship between natural disasters and multidimensional poverty and the concrete combination relationship between the two. Through the coupling analysis of the comprehensive disaster index (INDI) and the multi-dimensional poverty index (MDI) in 2011 (flood, drought, wind and hail, cryopreservation and snow disaster and landslide and debris flow), It is found that the extrapolation of drought and flood disasters in the study area in 2011 has a great impact on poverty. From the point of view of multiple natural disasters and based on the combination of the magnitude of disasters and the multi-dimensional poverty levels, It is found that the degree of comprehensive disaster in 2011 and the degree of multi-dimensional poverty in 2012 belong to more than moderate coupling and coordination, accounting for 64.79% of the total number of research areas, and the overall degree of coupling and coordination between the two is relatively high. The coupling degree C and the coupling coordination degree D show a "large dispersion" and a "right inclined" mountain distribution pattern. According to the coupling relationship between disaster and poverty, the combined types of disaster and poverty are summarized as follows: (1) the major disasters (large or medium disasters) and high poverty (high or middle poverty) concentrated in Hunan and Guizhou provinces. The spatial distribution of disasters and poverty is highly consistent. (2) Major disasters (large or moderate disasters)-lower poverty (low poverty type). The urban areas of this type of counties are mainly distributed in Hubei and Hunan regions. Guizhou and Chongqing were also slightly distributed. (3) small disaster (small disaster) -high poverty (high or middle poverty) type, mainly distributed in Hunan region, (4) small disaster (small disaster)-lower poverty (low poverty type): distributed in Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei and Chongqing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F327;X43

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