【摘要】：2004年以來,以農(nóng)業(yè)、農(nóng)村、農(nóng)民為主題的中央一號(hào)文件連續(xù)公布,突顯了“三農(nóng)”問題在我國(guó)建設(shè)與繁榮富強(qiáng)中具有舉足輕重的作用。農(nóng)民作為行動(dòng)的實(shí)施者,與農(nóng)業(yè)、農(nóng)村相比得到更多的關(guān)注,人們?cè)陉P(guān)注農(nóng)民的同時(shí)勢(shì)必會(huì)談到其收入問題。農(nóng)民收入增長(zhǎng)遲緩成為現(xiàn)階段農(nóng)村建設(shè)和農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展遇到的最顯著的困難。因此,“十二五”乃至“十三五”期間要著重處理農(nóng)民收入增加難的問題。本課題以農(nóng)民收入構(gòu)成角度為切入點(diǎn),從新世紀(jì)以來南平市農(nóng)村居民收入發(fā)展特點(diǎn)入手,以農(nóng)村居民人均收入和收入四大構(gòu)成為主要變量建立計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型,從實(shí)證分析的角度來判斷和選擇農(nóng)村居民收入的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn),從而有針對(duì)性地提出促進(jìn)南平市農(nóng)村居民收入增長(zhǎng)的對(duì)策建議。在分析農(nóng)村居民收入結(jié)構(gòu)以確定收入增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)時(shí),采用定量分析的方法對(duì)新經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行高成長(zhǎng)性篩選、與收入的均衡關(guān)系篩選、未來影響程度篩選,用Eviews統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析。同時(shí),通過實(shí)地調(diào)查研究,了解南平市農(nóng)村居民收入發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及存在的問題。分別按照高成長(zhǎng)性、長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系、影響力從高到低賦予4、3、2、1等4個(gè)分值,綜合分值最高的判定為模型所得出的新增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)。通過比較貢獻(xiàn)度、增速、穩(wěn)定性,對(duì)農(nóng)村居民收入四大構(gòu)成進(jìn)行高成長(zhǎng)性篩選；對(duì)收入四大構(gòu)成與總收入的協(xié)整及ECM分析,進(jìn)行與收入的均衡關(guān)系篩選；建立VAR模型和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù),對(duì)未來影響程度進(jìn)行篩選,最后綜合得到收入四大構(gòu)成中的工資性收入將作為今后南平農(nóng)村居民收入的新增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn),結(jié)合影響南平市農(nóng)村居民收入增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)性因素,有針對(duì)性地提出促進(jìn)農(nóng)村居民收入增長(zhǎng)的對(duì)策建議。由于農(nóng)民增收問題涉及到方方面面,財(cái)政、金融、政策等不同領(lǐng)域均會(huì)對(duì)農(nóng)村居民收入增加產(chǎn)生影響,而國(guó)際上和國(guó)內(nèi)關(guān)于農(nóng)民增收的研究往往傾向于理論分析,較少在實(shí)證方面開展研究。本論文運(yùn)用計(jì)量模型判定農(nóng)村居民收入和經(jīng)濟(jì)同步增長(zhǎng)的一致性,并以四大構(gòu)成為切入點(diǎn)判斷未來拉動(dòng)收入增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu),為研究此類問題提供了一個(gè)思路。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, the first document of the Central Committee, with the theme of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, has been published continuously, which highlights the important role of the issue of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" in the construction and prosperity of our country. Compared with agriculture and rural areas, farmers, as implementers of action, are paid more attention to, and people are bound to talk about their income at the same time. The slow growth of farmers' income has become the most significant difficulty in rural construction and agricultural development. Therefore, the twelfth five-year plan and even the 13th five-year plan should focus on the problem of increasing farmers' income. Based on the characteristics of rural residents' income development in Nanping City since the new century, the paper sets up an econometric model based on the four main variables of rural residents' per capita income and income. From the perspective of empirical analysis, this paper judges and selects the growth point of rural residents' income, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the growth of rural residents' income in Nanping City. When analyzing the income structure of rural residents to determine the income growth point, the paper adopts the method of quantitative analysis to screen the new economic growth point with high growth, the equilibrium relationship between the new economic growth point and income, and the degree of influence in the future. The data were analyzed by Eviews software. At the same time, through field investigation, we know the income development situation and existing problems of rural residents in Nanping City. According to the relationship of high growth, long term equilibrium, the influence from high to low gives 4 points, such as 4 / 3 / 2 / 1, and the judgment of the highest comprehensive value is the new growth point obtained by the model. By comparing the contribution degree, the growth rate, the stability, the high growth screening of the four major components of rural residents' income, the analysis of co-integration and ECM analysis of the four major components of income and the total income, and the screening of the equilibrium relationship between the four components and the income; The VAR model and impulse response function are established to screen the influence degree in the future. Finally, the wage income of the four major income components will be the new growth point of the rural residents' income in Nanping in the future. Combined with the structural factors affecting the income growth of rural residents in Nanping City, the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the income growth of rural residents are put forward. Since the problem of increasing farmers' income involves many aspects, such as finance, policy and other fields, it will have an impact on the increase of income of rural residents. However, the research on increasing farmers' income at home and abroad tends to be theoretical analysis. Less empirical research is carried out. This paper uses the econometric model to judge the consistency between the income of rural residents and the economic growth, and judges the structure of the future income growth with the four major components, which provides a way of thinking for the study of this kind of problems.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F323.8

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

中國(guó)碩士學(xué)位論文全文數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù) 前1條

1 蘇楠;農(nóng)村小額信貸對(duì)農(nóng)民增收影響研究[D];廣西大學(xué);2013年

，

本文編號(hào)：2294319