【摘要】：油菜是我國播種面積最大,種植區(qū)域分布最廣的油料作物,其穩(wěn)定供給是保障我國食用植物油供給安全的“基礎(chǔ)穩(wěn)定器”。2015年6月國家取消了油菜籽臨時(shí)收儲(chǔ)政策,菜籽價(jià)格的斷崖式下跌重挫了農(nóng)民的種植積極性,致使油菜籽播種面積顯著下滑。在當(dāng)前的嚴(yán)峻形勢下,構(gòu)建我國油菜籽供給反應(yīng)模型,研究油菜籽供給價(jià)格彈性及和影響供給的因素就具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,能為國家穩(wěn)定油菜籽生產(chǎn)規(guī)模、引導(dǎo)油菜產(chǎn)業(yè)平穩(wěn)度過轉(zhuǎn)型“陣痛期”提供思路。此外,由于各類型油菜在生長收獲期、競爭作物、品質(zhì)、成本收益等方面都存在著較大的差異,本文選擇了占全國油菜籽總播種面積90%以上的冬油菜進(jìn)行研究�；谌珖筒水a(chǎn)區(qū)固定農(nóng)戶觀測點(diǎn)2013-2016年的動(dòng)態(tài)短面板數(shù)據(jù),本文運(yùn)用Nerlove供給反應(yīng)模型和差分GMM估計(jì)方法測算了我國14個(gè)冬油菜產(chǎn)區(qū)近4年來的冬油菜籽供給價(jià)格彈性,并通過逐步回歸的方法考察了油菜籽臨時(shí)收儲(chǔ)政策對冬油菜籽供給的作用機(jī)制。研究結(jié)果表明:1、冬油菜籽面積的調(diào)整相對于自身價(jià)格的變動(dòng)存在一定的時(shí)滯性。2、種植成本對我國冬油菜籽面積有負(fù)向影響,而機(jī)械化水平則對其有正向影響。3、在當(dāng)前油菜種植凈利潤大幅虧損的情況下,非農(nóng)務(wù)工收入占總收入比重較高的農(nóng)戶對油菜種植收益的“鈍感”抵消了非農(nóng)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)本身對其供給意愿的消極影響。4、油菜籽臨時(shí)收儲(chǔ)政策對冬油菜籽面積的積極影響主要通過政策對收購價(jià)格的直接拉動(dòng)而體現(xiàn),政策本身設(shè)置價(jià)格信號、引導(dǎo)農(nóng)戶價(jià)格預(yù)期的作用并不顯著。研究啟示如下:打造國產(chǎn)菜籽油品牌、推進(jìn)低芥酸、健康營養(yǎng)菜籽油的加工,以此拉動(dòng)國產(chǎn)菜籽市場價(jià)格;大力發(fā)展油菜種植專業(yè)合作社、推進(jìn)適度規(guī)模經(jīng)營以降低油菜種植成本;推進(jìn)油菜產(chǎn)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革,開發(fā)油菜的蜜用、菜用、觀光用等附加價(jià)值,提升綜合效益;攻堅(jiān)農(nóng)機(jī)品種、農(nóng)藝銜接不當(dāng)?shù)膯栴},整合農(nóng)機(jī)資源,提升機(jī)械利用率以推進(jìn)油菜產(chǎn)業(yè)機(jī)械化進(jìn)程。
[Abstract]:Rapeseed is the most widely distributed oil crop in China, and its stable supply is the "basic stabilizer" to ensure the safety of edible vegetable oil supply in China. In June 2015, the state abolished the temporary storage policy of rapeseed. Steep falls in rapeseed prices have dampened farmers' enthusiasm for planting, causing rapeseed planting areas to fall significantly. In the current severe situation, it is of great practical significance to construct a response model of rapeseed supply in China, to study the price elasticity of rapeseed supply and the factors affecting the supply, and to stabilize the scale of rapeseed production for the country. Guide rape industry smoothly through the transformation of "labor pain period" to provide ideas. In addition, the winter rapeseed, which accounts for more than 90% of the total sowing area of rapeseed in China, is studied in this paper because there are great differences in the growth and harvest period, competitive crops, quality, cost and income of all types of rapeseed. Based on the dynamic short panel data of fixed farmer observation points in winter rape production areas in China from 2013 to 2016, the price elasticity of winter rapeseed supply in 14 winter rapeseed production areas in China in the past 4 years was calculated by using Nerlove supply response model and differential GMM estimation method. The mechanism of rapeseed temporary storage policy on winter rapeseed supply was investigated by stepwise regression method. The results show that the adjustment of winter rapeseed area has a delay of 0.2, and the planting cost has a negative effect on the winter rapeseed area in China. The level of mechanization has a positive effect on it. The "bluntness" of non-farm workers' income as a proportion of total income to rapeseed production offsets the negative effect of non-agricultural production itself on their willingness to supply. 4. The accumulation of rapeseed area in winter by the temporary storage policy of rapeseed The extreme influence is mainly reflected by the direct pull of the policy on the purchase price. The policy itself sets the price signal, the guidance farmer price anticipates the function is not remarkable. The inspiration of the research is as follows: to build a brand of domestic rapeseed oil, to promote the processing of low erucic acid and healthy nutritious rapeseed oil, and to boost the market price of domestic rapeseed oil; to vigorously develop the specialized cooperative of rapeseed cultivation, To promote moderate scale operation to reduce rape planting costs; to promote the supply-side reform of the rape industry, to develop the additional value of rape for honey, vegetable and sightseeing, and to enhance comprehensive benefits; and to tackle the problem of improper convergence of agricultural machinery varieties and agronomy. Integrate agricultural machinery resources, improve the utilization rate of machinery to promote the mechanization process of rape industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.7

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