基于結構方程模型的城鎮(zhèn)化質量與農用地利用水平評價及時空關聯(lián)性研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-03 13:48
【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化是一個國家或地區(qū)發(fā)展進步的必經過程,也是推動經濟增長的合理途徑與有效措施。近年來,隨著各地城鎮(zhèn)化進程不斷推進,城郊農用地被大量占用,勞動力逐漸由農村轉向城市,但城鎮(zhèn)化在提高人們生活水平的同時,對農用地利用則產生了一定程度的負面影響,特別是在城鄉(xiāng)結合部,農民的種植意愿與糧食產量呈現(xiàn)雙低狀態(tài),使城鎮(zhèn)化質量與農用地利用之間的矛盾尖銳化。因此,把握城鎮(zhèn)化質量和農用地利用水平的演變規(guī)律,準確定位現(xiàn)階段的城鎮(zhèn)化質量發(fā)展水平與農用地利用水平,對合理規(guī)劃區(qū)域發(fā)展具有指導性和實踐性意義。本文以德陽、綿陽(以下簡稱德綿)作為研究區(qū)域,首先初步建立評價指標體系,利用LISREL對其進行驗證性因子分析后對指標進行刪減,從而通過構建結構方程模型確定因子載荷與路徑系數(shù),在此基礎上進一步測算出研究區(qū)各區(qū)市縣2000年-2014年城鎮(zhèn)化質量與農用地利用水平的綜合得分。然后結合Excel和Arc GIS對研究區(qū)的發(fā)展變化情況進行時空演變分析。最后借助SPSS和Geo Da計算二者的相關系數(shù),并進行空間自相關分析,以此判斷城鎮(zhèn)化質量與農用地利用水平之間的關聯(lián)關系,以期為合理推動城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和農用地保護提供新思路。本文研究結論總結如下:(1)城鎮(zhèn)化質量水平在時間序列上整體呈上升趨勢,其中涪城區(qū)發(fā)展水平最高,旌陽區(qū)次之,廣漢市和游仙區(qū)大體相同,北川縣和平武縣則一直位于末位�？臻g上,城鎮(zhèn)化質量高分值分布范圍逐漸擴展,同時區(qū)際差異愈發(fā)顯著。旌陽區(qū)和涪城區(qū)作為兩個地區(qū)增長極,從根本上帶動成德綿經濟帶及周圍的城市發(fā)展,但處于經濟帶軸線兩側的地區(qū)發(fā)展水平仍較低。(2)農用地利用水平隨時間變化總體比較平穩(wěn),按其發(fā)展程度可分為什邡市、涪城區(qū)、廣漢市等高水平發(fā)展區(qū),北川縣和平武縣2個低水平發(fā)展區(qū),以及剩余10個中水平發(fā)展區(qū)�？臻g分布上,農用地利用水平逐漸向高分值區(qū)間發(fā)展、提升,區(qū)域差距逐步縮小。什邡市農用地利用總體水平在研究區(qū)范圍內常年居高,而位于綿陽北部山區(qū)的平武縣與北川縣農用地利用水平相當?shù)拖隆?3)城鎮(zhèn)化質量與農用地利用水平之間存在顯著的正向相關性。對于城鎮(zhèn)化質量與農用地利用水平發(fā)展不平衡的地區(qū),可通過適當提高人口城鎮(zhèn)化率、擴大城鎮(zhèn)規(guī)模、發(fā)展二三產業(yè)、增加社會保障投入、完善社會醫(yī)療設施等措施改善城鎮(zhèn)化質量,或者加大單位機械動力投入、提高灌溉率、增加糧食產量進而提高農用地利用水平,促進城鎮(zhèn)化與農用地協(xié)調健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is not only a necessary process of development and progress of a country or region, but also a reasonable way and effective measure to promote economic growth. In recent years, with the continuous progress of urbanization in various parts of the country, agricultural land in the suburbs has been heavily occupied, and the labor force has gradually shifted from the countryside to the city, but urbanization has improved people's living standards at the same time. It has a negative effect on the utilization of agricultural land, especially in the combination of urban and rural areas, the farmers' planting will and grain yield are both low, which makes the contradiction between urbanization quality and agricultural land use sharp. Therefore, it is of guiding and practical significance to grasp the evolution law of urbanization quality and agricultural land use level and to accurately locate the urbanization quality development level and agricultural land use level at the present stage. In this paper, Deyang, Mianyang (hereinafter referred to as De-mian) as the research area, the first preliminary establishment of the evaluation index system, using LISREL to verify the factor analysis to delete the indicators, Based on the structural equation model, the factors load and path coefficient were determined, and the comprehensive scores of urbanization quality and agricultural land use level between 2000 and 2014 were calculated. Then the temporal and spatial evolution of the study area is analyzed by Excel and Arc GIS. Finally, the correlation coefficient of SPSS and Geo Da is calculated, and spatial autocorrelation analysis is carried out to judge the correlation between urbanization quality and agricultural land use level. In order to reasonably promote the development of urbanization and the protection of agricultural land to provide new ideas. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the quality level of urbanization is on the rise in time series, the development level of Fucheng District is the highest, Jingyang District is the second, Guanghan City and Youxian District are roughly the same, Beichuan County and Pingwu County have always been in the last place. In space, the distribution range of high score of urbanization quality gradually expanded, and the regional differences became more and more significant. As two regional growth poles, Jingyang District and Fucheng District have fundamentally promoted the development of the Chengdemian Economic Belt and its surrounding cities. However, the development level of the areas on both sides of the axis of the economic belt is still relatively low. (2) the level of agricultural land use varies steadily with time, and can be divided into high level development areas such as Shifang City, Fulcheng District and Guanghan City according to their development degree. Beichuan County and Pingwu County 2 low level development areas, and the remaining 10 level development areas. In spatial distribution, the agricultural land use level gradually develops to the high score interval, the promotion, the regional disparity narrows gradually. The overall level of agricultural land use in Shifang City is high all year round in the study area. The level of agricultural land use in Pingwu County and Beichuan County in the northern mountain area of Mianyang is quite low. (3) there is a significant positive correlation between the quality of urbanization and the level of agricultural land use. For areas where the quality of urbanization is not balanced with the level of agricultural land use, we can increase the rate of population urbanization, expand the scale of cities and towns, develop the secondary and tertiary industries, and increase social security investment. To improve the quality of urbanization, to increase the input of unit mechanical power, to increase the rate of irrigation, to increase the grain yield and to raise the level of utilization of agricultural land, and to promote the harmonious and healthy development of urbanization and agricultural land.
【學位授予單位】：四川師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.21;F321.1
本文編號：2161934
[Abstract]:Urbanization is not only a necessary process of development and progress of a country or region, but also a reasonable way and effective measure to promote economic growth. In recent years, with the continuous progress of urbanization in various parts of the country, agricultural land in the suburbs has been heavily occupied, and the labor force has gradually shifted from the countryside to the city, but urbanization has improved people's living standards at the same time. It has a negative effect on the utilization of agricultural land, especially in the combination of urban and rural areas, the farmers' planting will and grain yield are both low, which makes the contradiction between urbanization quality and agricultural land use sharp. Therefore, it is of guiding and practical significance to grasp the evolution law of urbanization quality and agricultural land use level and to accurately locate the urbanization quality development level and agricultural land use level at the present stage. In this paper, Deyang, Mianyang (hereinafter referred to as De-mian) as the research area, the first preliminary establishment of the evaluation index system, using LISREL to verify the factor analysis to delete the indicators, Based on the structural equation model, the factors load and path coefficient were determined, and the comprehensive scores of urbanization quality and agricultural land use level between 2000 and 2014 were calculated. Then the temporal and spatial evolution of the study area is analyzed by Excel and Arc GIS. Finally, the correlation coefficient of SPSS and Geo Da is calculated, and spatial autocorrelation analysis is carried out to judge the correlation between urbanization quality and agricultural land use level. In order to reasonably promote the development of urbanization and the protection of agricultural land to provide new ideas. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the quality level of urbanization is on the rise in time series, the development level of Fucheng District is the highest, Jingyang District is the second, Guanghan City and Youxian District are roughly the same, Beichuan County and Pingwu County have always been in the last place. In space, the distribution range of high score of urbanization quality gradually expanded, and the regional differences became more and more significant. As two regional growth poles, Jingyang District and Fucheng District have fundamentally promoted the development of the Chengdemian Economic Belt and its surrounding cities. However, the development level of the areas on both sides of the axis of the economic belt is still relatively low. (2) the level of agricultural land use varies steadily with time, and can be divided into high level development areas such as Shifang City, Fulcheng District and Guanghan City according to their development degree. Beichuan County and Pingwu County 2 low level development areas, and the remaining 10 level development areas. In spatial distribution, the agricultural land use level gradually develops to the high score interval, the promotion, the regional disparity narrows gradually. The overall level of agricultural land use in Shifang City is high all year round in the study area. The level of agricultural land use in Pingwu County and Beichuan County in the northern mountain area of Mianyang is quite low. (3) there is a significant positive correlation between the quality of urbanization and the level of agricultural land use. For areas where the quality of urbanization is not balanced with the level of agricultural land use, we can increase the rate of population urbanization, expand the scale of cities and towns, develop the secondary and tertiary industries, and increase social security investment. To improve the quality of urbanization, to increase the input of unit mechanical power, to increase the rate of irrigation, to increase the grain yield and to raise the level of utilization of agricultural land, and to promote the harmonious and healthy development of urbanization and agricultural land.
【學位授予單位】：四川師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.21;F321.1
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