延安市寶塔區(qū)土地利用時空格局變化及模擬研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-29 16:06
【摘要】：作為當(dāng)前全球環(huán)境變化的熱點問題,土地利用/覆被變化(LUCC)在研究方向、研究內(nèi)容和深度上不斷的擴展和加深。隨著研究的深入和技術(shù)手段的進步,近年來LUCC的研究更加注重土地利用時空格局的變化,并結(jié)合過去、現(xiàn)在、未來土地利用空間格局變化的特征、規(guī)律和趨勢,探究其變化的驅(qū)動因素和機制,以此為土地管理部門的行為決策提供科學(xué)可靠的依據(jù),從而促使土地資源的可持續(xù)利用。本文以延安市寶塔區(qū)為研究區(qū)域,借助RS和GIS等技術(shù)手段,以研究區(qū)2010年、2015年兩期土地利用現(xiàn)狀數(shù)據(jù)庫為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合土地資源的特點,將土地利用類型分為耕地、園地、林地、草地、城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地和水域六類。以此為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),從數(shù)量結(jié)構(gòu)變化、土地利用轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和土地利用空間格局三個方面,對過去五年間,各土地利用類型的變化規(guī)律進行了全面分析。然后根據(jù)二元Logistic回歸模型,選取50m*50m、100m*100m、150m*150m、200m*200m四種模擬尺度,分析了影響各土地利用類型的驅(qū)動力及驅(qū)動力機制。最后運用CLUE-S模型對未來研究區(qū)土地利用變化空間格局模擬研究,通過對比分析生成的結(jié)果與寶塔區(qū)2020年土地利用總體規(guī)劃,為政府部門和決策者合理利用土地資源提供一定的參考依據(jù),同時也對類似區(qū)域的土地利用提供相關(guān)的借鑒。本文的研究結(jié)果表明:(1)2010年-2015年5年間寶塔區(qū)土地利用變化在數(shù)量結(jié)構(gòu)上的主要特征為:林地、園地、草地面積減少,減少面積分別為:1078.74ha、1006.23ha、296.74ha;城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地和耕地面積增加,增加面積分別為2207.37ha、224.03ha,水域面積基本保持不變。在此基礎(chǔ)上,分析了研究區(qū)耕地質(zhì)量變化情況,得出5年期間寶塔區(qū)耕地質(zhì)量有所下降;(2)首先,以土地利用轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣為基礎(chǔ),從新增和減少兩個角度,分別對研究初期土地利用的流失方向和末期的新增用地來源進行系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)換優(yōu)勢分析,得到研究區(qū)各土地利用類型間的轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則;然后,從各土地利用類型的轉(zhuǎn)出——不變——轉(zhuǎn)入分析空間位置變化情況;最后,基于分形理論對2010年和2015年兩期6種土地利用類型的分維值和穩(wěn)定性指數(shù)進行計算,通過計算結(jié)果分析得出研究期內(nèi)寶塔區(qū)城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地的空間分布趨于復(fù)雜,除水域外,其他土地利用類型相對趨于規(guī)整化。(3)根據(jù)二元Logistic回歸模型結(jié)果的回歸系數(shù)來探究土地利用變化的驅(qū)動力,并在50m*50m、100m*100m、150m*150m、200m*200m不同空間尺度下,經(jīng)過對比ROC值,得到寶塔區(qū)土地利用空間格局模擬的最佳模擬尺度是100m*100m,并以此為基礎(chǔ)對影響各土地利用類型的驅(qū)動力進行分析,揭示了其驅(qū)動力機制。(4)引入CLUE-S模型,預(yù)測2020年寶塔區(qū)土地利用空間格局,并對比分析2020年寶塔區(qū)土地利用總體規(guī)劃。結(jié)果表明:受寶塔區(qū)新區(qū)規(guī)劃、各驅(qū)動力因子和各地類的土地需求的共同作用,未來五年城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地增加較為顯著,主要表現(xiàn)為林地、草地向城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)用地的轉(zhuǎn)換為主,耕地持續(xù)保持小幅度增加。
[Abstract]:As a hot issue in the current global environment change, land use / Cover Change (LUCC) has been expanded and deepened in research direction, research content and depth. With the deepening of research and progress of technical means, LUCC research has paid more attention to the change of land use spatio-temporal grid in recent years, and combined with the past, now, and future land use The characteristics, laws and trends of the spatial pattern change, explore the driving factors and mechanisms of the change, so as to provide scientific and reliable basis for the behavior decision of the land management department and promote the sustainable utilization of the land resources. This paper takes the pagoda District of Yanan as the research area, and helps RS and GIS and other technical means to study the area in 2010, 2015 Based on the database of the status quo of land use, combining the characteristics of land resources, the land use types are divided into six categories: cultivated land, garden land, woodland, grassland, urban and rural construction land and water area. Based on this data, the land use transfer matrix and the spatial pattern of land use are the three aspects of the land use in the past five years. Based on the two Logistic regression model, four simulation scales of 50m*50m, 100m*100m, 150m*150m and 200m*200m were selected to analyze the driving force and driving force mechanism of the land use types. Finally, the spatial pattern of land use change in the non study area was simulated by the CLUE-S model. The results of comparison and analysis and the overall planning of land use in pagoda area in 2020 provide some reference for the rational use of land resources by government departments and decision-makers, and also provide reference for land use in similar areas. The results of this study show that: (1) the land use changes in the pagoda area in the 5 years of -2015 in 2010 The main characteristics of the quantitative structure are that the area of woodland, garden and grassland is reduced, and the area is reduced respectively: 1078.74ha, 1006.23ha, 296.74ha; the area of urban and rural construction land and cultivated land is increased, the area of the increase is 2207.37ha, 224.03ha, and the area of water area is basically unchanged. On this basis, the change of the quality of cultivated land in the study area is analyzed, and 5 The quality of cultivated land in pagoda area has declined during the year. (2) first, based on the land use transfer matrix, from the new and reduced two angles, the system conversion advantages of the loss direction of land use and the new land source at the end of the study were analyzed, and the transformation rules between the land use types of the research area were obtained. In the end, the fractal dimension and stability index of 6 types of land use types in 2010 and 2015 are calculated based on fractal theory, and the spatial distribution of the urban and rural construction land in the pagoda region is more complex in the study period. Outside the water, other types of land use tend to be regularized. (3) according to the regression coefficient of the results of the two Logistic regression model, the driving force of land use change is explored. Under the different spatial scales of 50m*50m, 100m*100m, 150m*150m and 200m*200m, the optimum simulation ruler of the spatial pattern simulation of the pagoda region is obtained by comparing the ROC values. The degree is 100m*100m, and on the basis of this, the driving force affecting land use types is analyzed and its driving force mechanism is revealed. (4) introducing CLUE-S model to predict the spatial pattern of land use in pagoda area in 2020, and comparing and analyzing the overall planning of land use in pagoda District in 2020. The results show that the driving force factors of the pagoda district are planned. In the next five years, the increase in urban and rural construction land is more significant, mainly in woodland, the conversion of grassland to urban and rural construction land, and a small increase in cultivated land.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.2
本文編號：2153206
[Abstract]:As a hot issue in the current global environment change, land use / Cover Change (LUCC) has been expanded and deepened in research direction, research content and depth. With the deepening of research and progress of technical means, LUCC research has paid more attention to the change of land use spatio-temporal grid in recent years, and combined with the past, now, and future land use The characteristics, laws and trends of the spatial pattern change, explore the driving factors and mechanisms of the change, so as to provide scientific and reliable basis for the behavior decision of the land management department and promote the sustainable utilization of the land resources. This paper takes the pagoda District of Yanan as the research area, and helps RS and GIS and other technical means to study the area in 2010, 2015 Based on the database of the status quo of land use, combining the characteristics of land resources, the land use types are divided into six categories: cultivated land, garden land, woodland, grassland, urban and rural construction land and water area. Based on this data, the land use transfer matrix and the spatial pattern of land use are the three aspects of the land use in the past five years. Based on the two Logistic regression model, four simulation scales of 50m*50m, 100m*100m, 150m*150m and 200m*200m were selected to analyze the driving force and driving force mechanism of the land use types. Finally, the spatial pattern of land use change in the non study area was simulated by the CLUE-S model. The results of comparison and analysis and the overall planning of land use in pagoda area in 2020 provide some reference for the rational use of land resources by government departments and decision-makers, and also provide reference for land use in similar areas. The results of this study show that: (1) the land use changes in the pagoda area in the 5 years of -2015 in 2010 The main characteristics of the quantitative structure are that the area of woodland, garden and grassland is reduced, and the area is reduced respectively: 1078.74ha, 1006.23ha, 296.74ha; the area of urban and rural construction land and cultivated land is increased, the area of the increase is 2207.37ha, 224.03ha, and the area of water area is basically unchanged. On this basis, the change of the quality of cultivated land in the study area is analyzed, and 5 The quality of cultivated land in pagoda area has declined during the year. (2) first, based on the land use transfer matrix, from the new and reduced two angles, the system conversion advantages of the loss direction of land use and the new land source at the end of the study were analyzed, and the transformation rules between the land use types of the research area were obtained. In the end, the fractal dimension and stability index of 6 types of land use types in 2010 and 2015 are calculated based on fractal theory, and the spatial distribution of the urban and rural construction land in the pagoda region is more complex in the study period. Outside the water, other types of land use tend to be regularized. (3) according to the regression coefficient of the results of the two Logistic regression model, the driving force of land use change is explored. Under the different spatial scales of 50m*50m, 100m*100m, 150m*150m and 200m*200m, the optimum simulation ruler of the spatial pattern simulation of the pagoda region is obtained by comparing the ROC values. The degree is 100m*100m, and on the basis of this, the driving force affecting land use types is analyzed and its driving force mechanism is revealed. (4) introducing CLUE-S model to predict the spatial pattern of land use in pagoda area in 2020, and comparing and analyzing the overall planning of land use in pagoda District in 2020. The results show that the driving force factors of the pagoda district are planned. In the next five years, the increase in urban and rural construction land is more significant, mainly in woodland, the conversion of grassland to urban and rural construction land, and a small increase in cultivated land.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.2
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