本文選題：GIS空間分析 + CA-Markov模型��； 參考：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：土地利用變化問題已經(jīng)成為全球研究的熱點(diǎn),土地利用變化的研究是土地利用類型和數(shù)量的研究,也是土地利用變化模型的研究,土地利用變化模型的建立、模擬、預(yù)測是土地利用研究的重要內(nèi)容。土地利用變化模型從定量和定性兩個(gè)方向來預(yù)測未來研究區(qū)土地利用變化的趨勢。土地利用變化的研究對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)、城市規(guī)劃以及氣候變化都有著重要的意義。人類對(duì)土地的不合理開發(fā)利用,造成了水土流失、洪澇災(zāi)害、泥石流等自然災(zāi)害,同時(shí)也造成了土地荒漠化、水資源污染以及土壤污染等人為災(zāi)害。隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)日益增長,社會(huì)不斷進(jìn)步,人口快速增加,使得中國城市化日益加快。昆明城市化進(jìn)度不斷提升,經(jīng)濟(jì)也在不斷增加。與此同時(shí),高原湖泊地區(qū)——撫仙湖流域的生態(tài)問題日益凸顯,與城市化用地趨勢有著顯著的沖突,因此對(duì)撫仙湖流域土地利用變化的研究與模擬預(yù)測有著十分重大的意義,對(duì)土地利用可持續(xù)發(fā)展起到?jīng)Q策的作用。本文以撫仙湖流域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象,利用ArcGIS軟件空間分析對(duì)該流域不同時(shí)期土地利用狀況和動(dòng)態(tài)變化特征進(jìn)行研究分析;通過CA-Markov模型對(duì)該流域2009-2015年土地利用變化進(jìn)行研究,并運(yùn)用IDRISI軟件中CROSSTAB模塊,在空間上對(duì)2015年實(shí)際和預(yù)測的土地利用現(xiàn)狀圖做空間疊加分析;利用得到的Kappa指數(shù)來評(píng)定空間上模擬精度,并模擬和預(yù)測未來2018年撫仙湖流域土地利用變化情況;根據(jù)未來城市不同發(fā)展趨勢以及政策變化,設(shè)定三個(gè)不同的情境,對(duì)2018年撫仙湖流域土地利用現(xiàn)狀發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行模擬,并對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行評(píng)估比較。本論文的主要結(jié)論如下:(1)土地利用類型面積變化。隨著人類經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的增加,撫仙湖流域在2009～2015年間土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了改變,林地面積、園地面積、草地面積、房屋建筑(區(qū))面積、道路面積以及人工堆掘地面積逐年增加的,而耕地面積、構(gòu)筑物面積、荒漠與裸露地表面積和水域面積則呈減低趨勢。(2)土地利用類型動(dòng)態(tài)度變化分析。從單一土地利用類型動(dòng)態(tài)度可知,2009～2015年園地、構(gòu)筑物、人工堆掘地,荒漠與裸露地表變化較大,其他類型土地變化較小,變化最小的為水域。從綜合土地利用類型動(dòng)態(tài)度可知,撫仙湖流域9年綜合土地利用類型動(dòng)態(tài)度先增加后減少,2009-2012年撫仙湖流域土地利用變化較為劇烈,2012-2015年撫仙湖流域土地利用變化劇烈程度明顯降低。(3)模擬精度的評(píng)定。將2015年模擬的土地利用現(xiàn)狀圖與2015年實(shí)際的土地利用現(xiàn)狀圖對(duì)比,并利用IDRISI軟件中CROSSTAB模塊,得到的Kappa指數(shù)來評(píng)定空間上模擬精度,模擬結(jié)果Kappa指數(shù)為89.42%。該模擬結(jié)果表明預(yù)測結(jié)果與實(shí)際現(xiàn)狀圖模擬效果較好,一致性較高,具有可行性。
[Abstract]:The issue of land use change has become a global research hotspot. The study of land use change is not only the study of land use type and quantity, but also the study of land use change model, the establishment and simulation of land use change model. Prediction is an important part of land use research. The land use change model predicts the trend of land use change in the future. The study of land use change is of great significance to ecological environment protection, urban planning and climate change. The unreasonable exploitation and utilization of land have caused many natural disasters, such as soil erosion, flood disaster, debris flow and so on. At the same time, they have also caused man-made disasters such as desertification of land, pollution of water resources and soil pollution. With the economic growth, social progress and rapid population growth, China's urbanization is accelerating day by day. Kunming urbanization progress continues to improve, the economy is also increasing. At the same time, the ecological problems of Fuxian Lake basin in plateau lake area are increasingly prominent, which has a significant conflict with the trend of urbanization land use, so it is of great significance to study and simulate the land use change in Fuxian Lake basin. To the land use sustainable development to play the decision function. This paper takes Fuxian Lake Basin as the research object, uses the ArcGIS software spatial analysis to study the land use condition and the dynamic change characteristic of the watershed in different periods, and studies the land use change in this basin from 2009 to 2015 by CA-Markov model. Using the CROSSTAB module of IDRISI software, the spatial superposition analysis of the actual and forecasted land use status map in 2015 is done, and the Kappa index is used to evaluate the spatial simulation accuracy. And simulate and predict the land use change in Fuxian Lake basin in the coming 2018. According to the different development trend and policy change of the city in the future, set up three different situations to simulate the development trend of land use status in Fuxian Lake basin in 2018. The results were evaluated and compared. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) area change of land use type. With the increase of human economic activities, the land use structure of Fuxian Lake Basin has changed in 2009 and 2015, including woodland area, garden area, grassland area, building area. The road area and artificial pile excavation area increased year by year, while the cultivated land area, structure area, desert and bare surface area and water area showed a decreasing trend. (2) dynamic change analysis of land use type. From the dynamic degree of single land use type, it can be seen that from 2009 to 2015, the changes of garden land, structures, artificial heaped land, desert and bare land surface are larger, while the other types of land have little change and the least change is water area. According to the dynamic degree of comprehensive land use type, The dynamic degree of comprehensive land use types in Fuxian Lake basin increased first and then decreased in 2009-2012. The severity of land use change in Fuxian Lake basin from 2012-2015 to 2012-2015 decreased obviously. (3) Evaluation of simulation accuracy. By comparing the land use status map simulated in 2015 with the actual land use status map in 2015, and using the CROSSTAB module in IDRISI software, the Kappa index is obtained to evaluate the spatial simulation accuracy. The Kappa index is 89.42. The simulation results show that the simulation results are good, consistent and feasible.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2;P208

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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本文編號(hào)：2110346