本文選題：建設用地供給 + 城鎮(zhèn)化效應��； 參考：《中國礦業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為城鎮(zhèn)化系統(tǒng)的基礎和房地產(chǎn)市場的供給側,建設用地供給是地方政府進行宏觀調(diào)控的良好政策工具。當前相關研究主要集中在建設用地供給對房地產(chǎn)市場的影響,對于建設用地供給產(chǎn)生的城鎮(zhèn)化效應沒有系統(tǒng)的研究。論文以全國287個地級市為研究對象,在城鎮(zhèn)化和城鎮(zhèn)化效率現(xiàn)狀調(diào)查分析的基礎上,提出了我國不同的城市間會由于流動人口比例帶來的居住模式差異而產(chǎn)生“常規(guī)”和“非常規(guī)”兩種不同的城鎮(zhèn)化模式的研究假說。并以流動人口比例作為門限變量建立了建設用地供給與人口流動、房價水平、工資水平之間的門限回歸模型。研究依據(jù)2006-2014年各城市的面板數(shù)據(jù)檢驗了模型及假說的合理性,并依據(jù)建設用地供給的不同城鎮(zhèn)化效應對江蘇省各城市的建設用地供給提出了優(yōu)化配置的建議。論文得到的主要結論如下:(1)城鎮(zhèn)化效率與城鎮(zhèn)化水平的相對大小可用來作為城市間土地資源配置的標尺,城鎮(zhèn)化水平低但效率高的城市可在建設用地供給中擁有更高的優(yōu)先度,城鎮(zhèn)化水平高但效率低的城市則應在建設用地供給中給予較低的優(yōu)先度。(2)當城市流動人口比例低于27.36%時,城市城鎮(zhèn)化處于常規(guī)模式,此時,提高工業(yè)用地比重、縮減居住用地比重會導致人口增長速度減緩,工資增長速度提高,房價水平增長。而當城市流動人口比例高于27.36%時,城鎮(zhèn)化模式會進入非常規(guī)模式,此時,提高工業(yè)用地比重、縮減居住用地比重會導致人口增長速度加快,工資增長速度減緩,房價水平增長。(3)以江蘇省為例,未來的建設用地供地指標應向揚州、泰州適當傾斜,同時減少南通、無錫市的建設用地指標。徐州市、南通市、連云港市、淮安市、鹽城市、揚州市、泰州市、宿遷市適用“常規(guī)”模式下的優(yōu)化方式,而南京市、無錫市、蘇州市、常州市、鎮(zhèn)江市則適用“非常規(guī)”模式下的優(yōu)化方式。論文的創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在針對當前研究中默認流動人口全部居住在商品房的基礎假設,提出了更符合當前城鎮(zhèn)化現(xiàn)實情況的理論假設,依據(jù)流動人口居住模式帶來的城鎮(zhèn)化差異性,系統(tǒng)性的將城鎮(zhèn)化模式分為“常規(guī)”城鎮(zhèn)化模式和“非常規(guī)”城鎮(zhèn)化模式,并揭示了不同城鎮(zhèn)化模式下,地方政府建設用地供給對人口、工資、房價的差異性作用規(guī)律。
[Abstract]:As the basis of urbanization system and the supply side of real estate market, construction land supply is a good policy tool for local government to carry out macro-control. The current research focuses on the impact of construction land supply on the real estate market, and there is no systematic study on the urbanization effect of construction land supply. Based on the investigation and analysis of urbanization and urbanization efficiency, the thesis takes 287 prefecture-level cities as research objects. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that different cities in China will produce "conventional" and "unconventional" urbanization models due to the difference of living patterns brought by the proportion of floating population. The threshold regression model between construction land supply and population flow, housing price level and wage level is established with floating population ratio as threshold variable. According to the panel data of each city from 2006 to 2014, the paper tests the rationality of the model and hypothesis, and puts forward some suggestions for optimizing the allocation of construction land supply in Jiangsu Province according to the different urbanization effect of construction land supply. The main conclusions of the paper are as follows: (1) the relative size of urbanization efficiency and urbanization level can be used as a scale for the allocation of land resources between cities. Cities with low urbanization level but high efficiency can have higher priority in the supply of construction land. Cities with high level of urbanization but low efficiency should give low priority in the supply of construction land.) when the proportion of urban floating population is lower than 27.36, the urbanization of cities is in the normal mode. At this time, the proportion of industrial land should be increased. Reducing the proportion of residential land will slow population growth, raise wages and raise house prices. However, when the proportion of urban floating population is higher than 27.36%, the urbanization model will enter the unconventional mode. At this time, increasing the proportion of industrial land and reducing the proportion of residential land will lead to the acceleration of population growth and the slow down of wage growth. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the future land supply index of construction land should be inclined to Yangzhou and Taizhou, while reducing the index of construction land in Nantong and Wuxi. Xuzhou City, Nantong City, Lianyungang City, Huaian City, Yancheng City, Yangzhou City, Taizhou City, Suqian City apply the "conventional" mode of optimization, while Nanjing City, Wuxi City, Suzhou City, Changzhou City, Zhenjiang City is applicable to the "unconventional" mode of optimization. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the basic hypothesis that the default floating population lives in commercial housing in the current research, and puts forward a theoretical hypothesis that is more in line with the current reality of urbanization. According to the difference of urbanization brought by floating population living mode, the urbanization model is systematically divided into "conventional" urbanization mode and "unconventional" urbanization mode, and reveals the different urbanization modes. Local government construction land supply to the population, wages, housing differences in the role of the law.
【學位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.2

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 ;《中國流動人口發(fā)展報告2016》內(nèi)容概要[J];青春期健康;2016年22期

2 徐偉平;夏思維;;我國城鎮(zhèn)化水平收斂性——理論假說與實證研究[J];人口與經(jīng)濟;2016年01期

3 彭山桂;汪應宏;陳晨;王健;雷剛;程道平;;山東省建設用地供給結構對人口流動的影響研究[J];資源科學;2016年01期

4 王博;陳笑筑;何曉波;;省級以下建設用地空間配置效率測度及優(yōu)化探討[J];中國人口·資源與環(huán)境;2016年01期

5 龍奮杰;王蕭o，

本文編號：1933008