本文選題：土地利用變化 + 空間格局模擬　； 參考：《山西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：土地利用變化研究是環(huán)境變化研究領(lǐng)域中的主要內(nèi)容,其空間分布格局的變化從本質(zhì)上改變著生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)和功能,對(duì)資源利用、環(huán)境保護(hù)以及經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響。CLUE-S模型是一種在小尺度范圍內(nèi)研究土地利用變化較為可靠的模型。本文以2003年、2008年、2013年的土地利用現(xiàn)狀為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),利用Logistic回歸方法分析土地利用類(lèi)型與驅(qū)動(dòng)因子間的相關(guān)關(guān)系,應(yīng)用CLUE-S模型模擬研究區(qū)2013年的土地利用格局,驗(yàn)證模型的適用性。結(jié)合研究區(qū)的土地利用情況,構(gòu)建未來(lái)的土地利用情景方案,模擬分析不同情景下研究區(qū)2023年土地利用空間格局的變化。主要研究結(jié)論如下：1.通過(guò)土地利用類(lèi)型的數(shù)量變化、動(dòng)態(tài)度變化以及空間轉(zhuǎn)移變化分析研究區(qū)的土地利用變化情況,可知研究區(qū)最主要的土地利用類(lèi)型為耕地、林地和草地,在研究時(shí)段內(nèi)流域的土地利用變化主要發(fā)生在2008-2013年期間,其中最主要的變化為耕地內(nèi)部坡耕地向梯田的轉(zhuǎn)化。2.根據(jù)研究區(qū)土地利用變化特點(diǎn)和模型要求,確定參與模擬的地類(lèi)為坡耕地、梯田、溝壩地、溝川地、果園、林地、草地和農(nóng)村居民點(diǎn);根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源選取可達(dá)性、地形地貌、土壤等驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,采用Logistic回歸法分析各地類(lèi)與驅(qū)動(dòng)因子的相關(guān)關(guān)系,回歸結(jié)果平均ROC值為0.89,表明選取的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子對(duì)土地利用類(lèi)型的分布有較強(qiáng)的解釋能力。3.2008和2013年模擬結(jié)果評(píng)價(jià)的Kappa系數(shù)分別為0.96和0.91,說(shuō)明CLUE-S模型適用于研究區(qū)的土地利用變化模擬研究。通過(guò)設(shè)置區(qū)位偏好變量以反映研究區(qū)坡改梯田這一土地利用政策,模型基本可以正確地模擬出梯田的分布,否則模擬結(jié)果非常不理想,從側(cè)面反映出模型對(duì)參數(shù)敏感,以及土地利用政策對(duì)空間格局變化的影響程度。4.構(gòu)建基于趨勢(shì)變化、農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展、生態(tài)保護(hù)為目標(biāo)的情景方案。將不同情景下的土地利用模擬結(jié)果與2013年現(xiàn)狀疊加對(duì)比,分析研究區(qū)土地利用在數(shù)量和空間方面的變化情況。研究區(qū)未來(lái)的土地利用在發(fā)展過(guò)程中,溝壩地、溝川地、農(nóng)民居民點(diǎn)等地類(lèi)基本保持現(xiàn)狀,坡耕地和草地減少轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樘萏�、果園和林地;流域的西北部、東南部以及中部坡耕地分布的區(qū)域,是研究區(qū)未來(lái)土地利用可能發(fā)生變化的區(qū)域。
[Abstract]:The study of land use change is the main content in the field of environmental change. The change of its spatial distribution pattern essentially changes the structure and function of ecosystem and the utilization of resources. The CLUE-S model is a reliable model for the study of land use change on a small scale. Based on the data of land use status in 2003, 2008 and 2013, this paper uses Logistic regression method to analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors, and uses CLUE-S model to simulate the land use pattern in the study area in 2013. The applicability of the model is verified. According to the situation of land use in the study area, the future land use scenarios were constructed, and the spatial pattern of land use in 2023 was simulated and analyzed under different scenarios. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Based on the quantitative change, dynamic change and spatial transfer change of the land use type, the main land use types in the study area are cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the main land use types in the study area are cultivated land, forest land and grassland. The change of land use occurred mainly in the period of 2008-2013, and the most important change was the transformation from sloping farmland to terrace. According to the characteristics of land use change in the study area and the requirements of the model, the land types involved in the simulation were determined as sloping farmland, terrace, ditch and dam land, gully and Sichuan fields, orchards, woodlands, grasslands and rural settlements, and the accessibility, topography and landform were selected according to the data sources. Soil and other driving factors were analyzed by Logistic regression method. The average ROC value of regression results is 0.89, which indicates that the selected driving factors have strong explanatory power to the distribution of land use types. The Kappa coefficients of the evaluation of simulation results in 2013 and 2013 are 0.96 and 0.91, respectively, indicating that the CLUE-S model is suitable for soil in the study area. Simulation of ground use change. By setting the location preference variable to reflect the land use policy of slope to terrace in the study area, the model can simulate the distribution of terraced fields correctly, otherwise, the simulation result is very unsatisfactory, which shows that the model is sensitive to parameters. And the influence degree of land use policy on spatial pattern change. Construct scenario scheme based on trend change, agricultural development and ecological protection. The results of land use simulation under different scenarios were compared with the present situation in 2013, and the changes in quantity and space of land use in the study area were analyzed. The future land use of the study area in the process of development, gully dam land, gully and Sichuan land, peasant settlements and other basic status, sloping farmland and grassland reduced into terraces, orchards and woodland; northwest of the basin, The distribution of sloping farmland in southeastern and central regions is the area where land use may change in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F301.2

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