本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率 + DEA　； 參考：《南華大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：湖南省作為中部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)大省,素有“魚米之鄉(xiāng)”的美稱。據(jù)《湖南省統(tǒng)計年鑒2013》顯示,截至2012年,目前全省農(nóng)村人口3830.46萬人,全省農(nóng)作物耕種面積851.20萬公頃。2012年全省農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)總產(chǎn)值為4904.1億元,位居全國32個省級行政區(qū)的第6,占全省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的22.13%�？梢�,農(nóng)業(yè)仍然是湖南在國民經(jīng)濟中占據(jù)很大比重,研究湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率情況及其效率變動研究,對于湖南省了解自身農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展政策的制定都具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。因此本文采用DEA和Malmquist模型對湖南省2007-2012年農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率及其變動情況進行研究,主要從以下幾個方面進行研究。第一部分主要對2007-2012年湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的投入和產(chǎn)出情況進行了統(tǒng)計分析,投入要素主要考慮了農(nóng)村勞動力、土地、機械動力、化肥及農(nóng)村用電量等要素,農(nóng)林牧漁總產(chǎn)值為產(chǎn)出要素進行了統(tǒng)計分析,主要對湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)情況進行分析。第二部分選取基于投入導向的規(guī)模報酬可變的DEA模型對湖南省2007-2012年各地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率進行靜態(tài)測評,計算了其農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)綜合效率、純技術(shù)效率和規(guī)模效率。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)湖南省2007-2012年湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)綜合效率穩(wěn)步提升,盡在2009年出現(xiàn)了小幅度下滑。(2)從地區(qū)對比研究發(fā)現(xiàn),各地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)綜合效率差異明顯,張家界市最低,衡陽市最為有效。(3)進一步對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)綜合效率分解的技術(shù)效率和規(guī)模效率研究發(fā)現(xiàn),落后地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)綜合效率低的主要原因是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模效率較低。第三部分在湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率靜態(tài)研究的基礎上,基于湖南2007-2012市級面板數(shù)據(jù),采用DEA-Malmquist指數(shù)模型,運用DEAP2.1軟件計算了期間各地區(qū)全要素生產(chǎn)率變化指數(shù),對研究期間湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率的變動原因進行了研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)2007-2012年期間湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率年平均增長率為5.4%,說明這期間湖南省總體農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率是有效的,從總體平均增長率的指數(shù)分解來看,期間湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率增長主要來源于技術(shù)進步,對全要素生產(chǎn)率的貢獻率為3.7%。(2)湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)效率具有明顯的波動性,但總體表現(xiàn)出增長趨勢,期間只有2008-2009年全要素生產(chǎn)率出現(xiàn)負增長。并結(jié)合以上研究,為湖南省發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率提供以下建議:(1)積極發(fā)展低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展模式,借鑒其他地區(qū)先進的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)模式;(2)加大多農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的科技投入,加大對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的推廣,提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)效率;(3)重視農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模效率的提升,特別是要重視土地集約化經(jīng)營官管理,加速土地改革,提高農(nóng)業(yè)管理水平。
[Abstract]:Hunan Province, as a major agricultural province in the central region, is known as the "land of fish and rice". According to the Statistical Yearbook 2013 of Hunan Province, as of 2012, the rural population of the province is 38.3046 million, and the total area under cultivation of crops in the province is 8.512 million hectares. In 2012, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the whole province was 490.41 billion yuan. The country ranks the sixth of 32 provincial administrative regions, accounting for 22.13 percent of the province's GDP. It can be seen that agriculture still occupies a large proportion of the national economy in Hunan. To study the situation and changes of agricultural production efficiency in Hunan Province, to understand the current situation of agricultural development in Hunan Province, The formulation of agricultural development policy has certain realistic significance. In this paper, DEA and Malmquist models are used to study the agricultural production efficiency and its changes in Hunan Province from 2007 to 2012, mainly from the following aspects. The first part mainly analyzes the input and output of agricultural production in Hunan Province from 2007 to 2012. The input factors mainly consider rural labor force, land, mechanical power, chemical fertilizer and rural electricity consumption. The output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was statistically analyzed, and the agricultural production in Hunan Province was analyzed. In the second part, the DEA model of variable scale reward based on input guidance is selected to evaluate the agricultural production efficiency of Hunan province from 2007 to 2012. The comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are calculated. The study found that the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production in Hunan Province increased steadily from 2007 to 2012, and declined by a small margin in 2009.) from the regional comparative study, it was found that the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production in different regions was significantly different, and Zhangjiajie City had the lowest. Further study on the technical efficiency and scale efficiency of comprehensive efficiency decomposition of agricultural production found that the main reason for the low comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production in backward areas was the low scale efficiency of agricultural production. In the third part, on the basis of the static research of Hunan agricultural production efficiency, based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2012, using DEA-Malmquist index model and DEAP2.1 software, the author calculates the total factor productivity change index of each region during the period. The reasons for the change of agricultural production efficiency in Hunan Province during the study period were studied. The study found that the average annual growth rate of agricultural total factor productivity in Hunan Province was 5.4in the period 2007-2012, indicating that the overall agricultural production efficiency of Hunan Province was effective during this period, and from the perspective of the exponential decomposition of the overall average growth rate, During this period, the growth of agricultural total factor productivity in Hunan Province mainly comes from technological progress, and the contribution rate to total factor productivity is 3.70.The total factor production efficiency of Hunan province is obviously fluctuating, but it shows an overall trend of growth. There was only negative growth in total factor productivity in 2008-2009. Combined with the above research, the following suggestions are provided for Hunan Province to develop agricultural production and improve agricultural production efficiency.) to actively develop low-carbon agricultural development models, and to learn from the advanced agricultural production model of other regions, and to increase the scientific and technological input for multi-agricultural production. We should pay more attention to the promotion of scale efficiency of agricultural production, especially to the management of intensive land management officers, accelerate land reform and improve the level of agricultural management.
【學位授予單位】：南華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F327

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