本文選題：碳排放 + 土地利用變化�。� 參考：《江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球變暖、環(huán)境污染等關(guān)系到人類生存和健康等問題,我國當(dāng)下經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的擴(kuò)建和人為調(diào)整土地利用,破壞生物圈內(nèi)的碳循環(huán),加重全球氣候變暖,這些人類活動造成大氣CO2增加量僅次于能源化石燃料。本研究是基于遙感、GIS技術(shù)和R/S模型分析。首先分析了南昌市2000-2015年四期各土地利用類型的面積和占比變化;然后通過閱讀相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)資料,對比相應(yīng)模型計算方法,最后選取最適合南昌市的碳排放模型估計公式,根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)氐牡乩憝h(huán)境、氣候條件以及數(shù)據(jù)獲取的難易程度確定排放系數(shù),計算選取時間跨度的碳排放量,通過四期的土地利用變化情況對碳排放從數(shù)量進(jìn)行分析,隨后利用R/S模型等分析,得出主要結(jié)論有:(1)研究階段內(nèi),南昌市土地利用大致的變化趨勢可概括為:數(shù)量變化方面,建設(shè)用地面積持續(xù)增加,耕地面積大規(guī)模減少,草地和未利用地面積也呈不斷減少的趨勢,林地面積經(jīng)歷了先增后減的波動變化,水域有所增多;在變化速度方面,建設(shè)用地還是處于快速擴(kuò)張,耕地和未利用地則由早期的快速縮減到近年來減少幅度趨于平緩,園地林地草地和水域的波動幅度則較為平緩。(2)隨著南昌市經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長、工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化的不斷推進(jìn),基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施快速建設(shè),南昌市碳排放量增加十分明顯。從研究初期的183.49×104t增長到研究末期的1056.93×104t,先后經(jīng)歷了三個不同階段。第一階段(2000-2005年):經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展初期工業(yè)化水平較低,碳排放也處于一個增長相對比較緩慢的時期,年均碳排放增加26.6×104t。第二階段(2005-2010年):經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展工業(yè)化水平大幅提高,碳排放處于超高速增長時期。具體表現(xiàn)在,碳排放量從2005年的316.48×104t增長到2010年的1278.06×104t,增長三倍有余。第三階段(2010—2015年):經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度有所回落占碳排放很大比重的工業(yè)開始外遷,總碳排放也進(jìn)入一個回落時期,從2010年的1278.06×104t下降到2015年的1056.93×104t,說明南昌市在發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)同時還兼顧節(jié)能減排。(3)南昌市各種土地利用類型的碳排放差異明顯。主導(dǎo)碳排放量是建設(shè)用地,其碳排放量占總碳排放量的95%以上,碳排放量從2000年的183.49×104t快速增加到2015年的1056.93×104t,年均增長58.23×104t。從表4-3中可以看出,南昌市未來很長一段時間建設(shè)用地還是主要的碳源。南昌市主要碳匯是園林地、水域用地,但是在整個研究期間面積變化較小,碳匯總量從10.57×104t增加到11.05×104t,增長了4.54%,增長量基本忽略。由于水域和林地的碳吸收量相對建設(shè)用地的碳排放量相差巨大,導(dǎo)致其他各種土地類型的碳匯效應(yīng)并不明顯。從各土地利用類型的碳排放量可知,耕地的碳排放量就大于林地、水域、草地、未利用地碳吸收量,并且總量相對建設(shè)用地相差較大,故這5種土地利用類型的碳源(或碳匯)效應(yīng)對整個區(qū)域碳排放效應(yīng)影響較小。(4)基于R/S模型分析結(jié)果表明:南昌市在節(jié)能減排、發(fā)展綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)、循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)做出的努力是有目共睹,在未來的十幾年中,碳排放量將隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)、節(jié)能意識下碳排放總量逐年下降。
[Abstract]:Global warming and environmental pollution are related to the problems of human survival and health. In China, the rapid economic development, the expansion of the infrastructure and the artificial adjustment of land use, the destruction of the carbon cycle in the biosphere, and the aggravation of global warming, the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is second only to energy fossil fuels. GIS technology and R/S model analysis. First, the area and the change of the land use types in the 2000-2015 years and four periods of the 2000-2015 years are analyzed. Then through the reading of relevant documents, the corresponding model calculation method is compared. Finally, the most suitable estimation formula for the carbon emission model of Nanchang is selected, according to the local geographical environment, climate conditions and data. The difficulty degree determines the emission coefficient, calculates the carbon emission of the time span, analyzes the carbon emissions from the four period of land use change, and then uses the R/S model to get the main conclusions: (1) in the study stage, the general trend of land use change in Nanchang can be summarized as the quantity change, The area of construction land continues to increase, the area of cultivated land has been reduced greatly, and the area of grassland and unused land has also been decreasing continuously. The area of woodland has experienced the fluctuation of first increase and decrease, and the increase of water area. In terms of the speed of change, the construction land is still in rapid expansion, and the cultivated land and unused land have been reduced from early rapid to recent years. In order to reduce the amplitude, the fluctuation range of the grassland and the water area of the garden is relatively slow. (2) with the rapid economic growth of Nanchang, the continuous promotion of industrialization and urbanization and the rapid construction of the infrastructure, the carbon emission of Nanchang is obviously increased. From the initial 183.49 x 104t to the end of the study, 1056.93 * 104t, successively There are three different stages. The first stage (2000-2005 years): the level of industrialization in the early stage of economic development is low, the carbon emission is also in a period of relatively slow growth, and the annual carbon emissions increase by 26.6 * 104t. second stages (2005-2010 years): the rapid economic development of industrialization level has been greatly improved, and the carbon emissions are in the period of ultra high speed growth. The volume of carbon emissions increased from 316.48 x 104t in 2005 to 1278.06 x 104t in 2010 and three times more than three times. The third stage (2010 - 2015): the industry began to move out of a large proportion of carbon emissions, and the total carbon emissions also entered a fall period, from 1278.06 x 104t in 2010 to 1056.93 in 2015. 104t, which shows that Nanchang has both energy conservation and emission reduction at the same time. (3) the carbon emissions of various types of land use in Nanchang are distinct. The dominant carbon emissions are construction land, and the carbon emissions account for more than 95% of the total carbon emissions, and the carbon emissions from 183.49 x 104t in 2000 to 1056.93 x 104t in 2015, and the annual average increase of 58.23 From table 4-3, we can see from table 4-3 that Nanchang city has a long period of construction land or main carbon source for a long time. The main carbon sinks of Nanchang are garden land and water use land, but in the whole period of study, the area changes small, the amount of carbon sinks increased from 10.57 x to 11.05 x 104t, increased by 4.54%, and the growth is basically ignored. Due to water and woodland Carbon emissions from other types of land are not obvious. The carbon emissions from various land use types show that the carbon emission of cultivated land is larger than that of woodland, water, grassland, and unused land carbon absorption, and the total amount is relatively large relative to the construction land, so the 5 kinds of soil are different. The effect of carbon source (or carbon sink) on the land use type has little influence on the carbon emission effect in the whole region. (4) the results of R/S model analysis show that the efforts of Nanchang in energy saving and emission reduction, the development of green economy and the recycling economy are obvious. In the next decade, the carbon emissions will be with the science and technology and the energy saving consciousness. Declining year by year.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.24;X321

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張超;王琳;張秋霞;陳根發(fā);;布哈河流域土地利用轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣及空間變化研究[J];水利水電技術(shù);2016年05期

2 趙國松;劉紀(jì)遠(yuǎn);匡文慧;歐陽志云;;1990-2010年中國土地利用變化對生物多樣性保護(hù)重點區(qū)域的擾動[J];地理學(xué)報;2014年11期

3 張殷欽;胡偉;劉俊民;;基于R/S分析法的地下水位動態(tài)變化趨勢分析[J];中南大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2012年12期

4 石洪昕;穆興民;張應(yīng)龍;呂明權(quán);;四川省廣元市不同土地利用類型的碳排放效應(yīng)研究[J];水土保持通報;2012年03期

5 武俊喜;程序;焦加國;肖紅生;楊林章;王洪慶;張福鎖;Ellis Erle C.;;1940—2002年長江中下游平原鄉(xiāng)村景觀區(qū)域中土地利用覆被及其土壤有機(jī)碳儲量變化[J];生態(tài)學(xué)報;2010年06期

6 劉夢云;常慶瑞;齊雁冰;孫寧;;黃土臺塬不同土地利用土壤有機(jī)碳與顆粒有機(jī)碳[J];自然資源學(xué)報;2010年02期

7 周雪華;肖志豪;;南昌市城區(qū)土地利用變化時空特征分析[J];江西測繪;2009年02期

8 張文麗;陳世蘋;苗海霞;林光輝;;開墾對克氏針茅草地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)碳通量的影響[J];植物生態(tài)學(xué)報;2008年06期

9 李穎;黃賢金;甄峰;;江蘇省區(qū)域不同土地利用方式的碳排放效應(yīng)分析[J];農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報;2008年S2期

10 段曉男;王效科;逯非;歐陽志云;;中國濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)固碳現(xiàn)狀和潛力[J];生態(tài)學(xué)報;2008年02期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 吳如馨;土地利用變化對碳排放量影響分析[D];遼寧師范大學(xué);2015年

2 石洪昕;四川省廣元市土地利用變化的碳排放效應(yīng)研究[D];西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué);2012年

3 江洪;長汀縣水土流失遙感監(jiān)測及其生態(tài)安全評價[D];福州大學(xué);2005年

，

本文編號：1829132